The Strategic Value and Financial Implications of Balyo's Proposed Squeeze-Out by SoftBank Affiliate

The proposed squeeze-out of minority shareholders in Balyo S.A. by a SoftBank affiliate, offering €0.60 per share, warrants a rigorous assessment of both strategic rationale and financial fairness. This analysis examines whether the offer aligns with intrinsic value, industry benchmarks, and SoftBank's broader ambitions in the logistics automation sector.

Balyo's Financial Fragility and Market Mispricing

Balyo's financials reveal a company in distress. In 2024, it reported revenue of €29.11 million, a 9.19% increase from 2023, but losses widened by 36.2% to €13.3 million. Its EBITDA for the same period was -€10.68 million, with a margin of -36.69% according to financial reports, and its intrinsic value, calculated via projected free cash flow, is a negative €0.66 as per valuation analysis. The company's Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 1.8x far exceeds its industry peers' average of 1.2x and the French machinery sector's 0.6x according to market data, suggesting a significant overvaluation relative to sales.

The first half of 2025 saw further challenges: revenue fell 4% to €13.3 million, driven by a 32% decline in EMEA region activity and supply chain disruptions. While the Americas region saw a 99% revenue surge in Q3 2025, this growth appears insufficient to offset broader operational weaknesses. Balyo's cash position of €7.7 million as of June 2025 according to financial disclosures is expected to cover operating needs for the remainder of the year, but its negative EBITDA and declining revenue in key markets raise concerns about long-term sustainability.

SoftBank's Strategic Logic and Industry Context

SoftBank's acquisition of a 41.8% stake in Balyo for €11.8 million in 2023 was part of a deliberate strategy to consolidate control over logistics automation technologies according to industry analysis. The company's robotic forklift solutions complement SoftBank's existing investments, such as its 40% stake in AutoStore acquired at a 44x EBITDA multiple in 2022 and its $375 million acquisition of Berkshire Grey. By pursuing a mandatory squeeze-out, SoftBank aims to eliminate shareholder uncertainty and integrate Balyo into its ecosystem, leveraging synergies across its portfolio of automation firms.

The €0.60 offer, while a 71.5% premium over Balyo's current stock price of €0.355 according to valuation data, must be evaluated against industry acquisition multiples. The median EBITDA multiple for robotics and AI companies in Q1 2025 was 15.8x according to market insights, a decline from the 2022 peak but still higher than Balyo's negative EBITDA. Given Balyo's lack of profitability, traditional multiples are less informative, but the offer reflects SoftBank's confidence in its technology's potential to scale within its logistics network.

Fairness and Long-Term Value Creation

For minority shareholders, the €0.60 offer represents a liquidity event at a premium to the current market price. However, intrinsic value calculations suggest the company's projected cash flows are insufficient to justify even its existing valuation according to financial analysis. Balyo's PS ratio of 1.8x implies a market capitalization of approximately €138 million (based on 2024 revenue of €29.11 million), far exceeding its actual market cap of $66.83 million (€60.68 million) according to market data. This discrepancy highlights a market correction to fundamentals, but the offer price does not account for Balyo's deteriorating margins or regional revenue declines.

SoftBank's rationale hinges on long-term value creation through integration. By consolidating Balyo, it can accelerate deployment of its robotic forklifts in warehouses served by its other automation assets. Yet, this optimism must be tempered by Balyo's operational risks. Its Q3 2025 revenue growth in the Americas, while impressive, masks a 4% overall revenue decline in H1 2025. If Balyo cannot achieve consistent profitability, the €0.60 offer may overvalue its future potential.

Conclusion

The €0.60 squeeze-out offer is a reasonable premium for minority shareholders, particularly given Balyo's current stock price and negative intrinsic value. However, its fairness depends on SoftBank's ability to transform Balyo into a profitable component of its logistics automation portfolio. While the offer aligns with industry trends-despite a post-2022 valuation correction-it does not fully address Balyo's operational fragility. Shareholders must weigh the immediate liquidity against the uncertainty of SoftBank's long-term integration strategy. In a sector where EBITDA multiples have normalized to 15.8x according to market data, Balyo's negative earnings make the offer's justification less clear. For now, the €0.60 price tag reflects strategic ambition more than financial reality.