Soybean Futures and the Outlook for Global Supply-Demand Imbalances in 2025

The global soybean market in 2025 is poised for a structural bearish correction, driven by a confluence of factors: favorable U.S. crop conditions, a weakening Chinese demand profile, and the relentless rise of South American producers. These forces are creating a perfect storm for soybean prices, with implications for investors, farmers, and policymakers alike.

U.S. Production Stability: A Double-Edged Sword

The United States, once a linchpin of global soybean supply, now faces a paradox. While 2025 yields are projected to range between 43 and 57 bushels per acre—a narrowing of historical variability—this stability has reduced price volatility. The U.S. soybean crush rate for the 2025/26 marketing year is forecast at a record 2.54 billion bushels, bolstered by biofuel demand under the EPA's revised Renewable Fuel Standard. However, this domestic demand has come at the expense of exports, which have fallen by 70 million bushels to 1.75 billion, as South American competitors gain market share.

Ending stocks for the U.S. are expected to rise to 310 million bushels, pushing the season-average farm price down to $10.10 per bushel. This downward pressure is compounded by the shift in U.S. agricultural policy, with farmers reallocating acreage to corn—a 3.6% decline in soybean planting versus a 4% increase in corn. The result is a self-reinforcing cycle: lower prices suppress demand, while higher stocks further weaken price momentum.

South America's Rise: A Structural Shift in Supply

Brazil and Argentina are no longer just competitors to U.S. soybean exports—they are now the dominant players. Brazil's 2025 harvest is projected at 6,150 million bushels, a 13% increase from 2024, driven by record yields of 52 bushels per acre in key regions like the Center-West. With a depreciated real and favorable trade policies, Brazil's soybean exports to China surged to 3.9 billion bushels in 2025, outpacing U.S. shipments despite U.S. tariffs.

Argentina, meanwhile, has maintained its competitive edge through policy reforms, including reduced export tariffs on soybean meal and oil. While its yields lag behind Brazil's (48–54 bushels per acre), Argentina's robust infrastructure and focus on processed soybean products (e.g., meal and oil) have ensured its share of the global market. Together, Brazil and Argentina are expected to account for over 55% of global soybean exports in 2025, a level that will likely persist for years.

China's Demand Dilemma: Stockpiles and Structural Weaknesses

China's role as the world's largest soybean importer has become a key driver of global prices—but in 2025, its demand is faltering. By year-end, China's soybean stockpiles are projected to reach 43.86 million metric tons, or 36% of global stocks, a level that has rendered further imports less urgent. This glut is the result of aggressive 2024 purchases, low prices, and strategic hedging against potential U.S. tariffs.

Domestic demand is also softening. China's pork industry, a major consumer of soybean meal, has seen consumption fall below expectations due to government-led herd reductions and lower meat prices. Meanwhile, a new $1 billion agricultural trade agreement with Argentina has diversified China's supply sources, reducing reliance on U.S. soybeans. U.S. exports to China dropped 43.7% in April 2025 compared to April 2024, while Brazilian exports to China fell 22.2% year-on-year.

Global Imbalances and the Bearish Outlook

The interplay of these factors has created a bearish equilibrium. Global soybean ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year are projected at 123.18 million metric tons, a record high. Brazil's 169 million-ton harvest alone could flood markets, while China's stockpiles and weak feed demand further depress prices. The U.S. soybean price is expected to trend toward $10.10 per bushel, with soybean meal at $290 per short ton and soybean oil at $0.53 per pound.

For investors, the message is clear: soybean futures and related equities (e.g., Cargill, Bunge) face downward pressure. Hedging strategies should prioritize short-term exposure to South American producers, while long-term investors may need to reassess the viability of U.S. soybean-dependent portfolios. Policymakers, meanwhile, must address structural imbalances—whether through trade reforms, biofuel mandates, or incentives for domestic production.

Conclusion: A New Era for Soybean Markets

The 2025 soybean market is defined by a shift from scarcity to surplus. U.S. stability, South American dominance, and Chinese stockpiles have created a landscape where prices are likely to remain depressed for the foreseeable future. Investors should brace for volatility in the short term but recognize the long-term trend: a bearish, supply-driven market. The question is not if prices will fall—it is how much and for how long.