Sonae's 6% Q2 Sales Jump Looks Real-But 10% EBITDA Growth Is What the Stock Really Needs

Sonae's H1 results look operationally credible

Sales, EBITDA, and profit are all moving higher

After a stretch when investors questioned whether retail growth was mostly promotional, Sonae delivered numbers that are harder to dismiss. Total turnover grew 5.6% to €2.9bn in Q2 and €5.6bn in H1, up 6.3% year on year. Underlying EBITDA also accelerated ahead of revenue, rising 10.2% to €281m in Q2 and 13% to €536m in H1. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose to €75m in Q2 and €123m in H1. That combination-top-line growth with faster profit growth-suggests the operating trend is improving rather than simply relying on promotions.

One half-year does not settle the longer-term debate, but it does strengthen the case that management is executing. The key question now is whether EBITDA can continue to grow roughly in line with the H1 pace as revenue growth remains healthy.

MC and Continente are carrying the group

MC remains the main growth engine

MC is now the clearest workhorse in the portfolio. Its turnover increased 7.9% to €4.4bn in H1, confirming that the core grocery business is broad-based rather than a niche tailwind. Sonae also highlighted significant volume growth in its MC business, which matters because volume is a stronger sign of genuine demand than price alone.

Continente is also contributing in a way investors will appreciate. Sonae said the chain gained market share despite a challenging environment, helped by investments in pricing and communications, and opened three new stores in the first half of 2026. A core retailer that is gaining share, improving execution, and still expanding its footprint is exactly the kind of mix that supports a more durable story.

Other chains are adding breadth, not distraction

The rest of the portfolio is also helping. Worten turnover rose 7% to €681m, with online representing about 20% of total turnover. Wells and Druni turnover rose 12.3% to €906m. iServices accounted for 8% of total turnover and opened 10 new stores in Q2. Musti generated €277m of turnover, up 14.7%, and Sonae said there were significant contributions from MC, Worten, and Musti.

That does not mean every unit is equally mature operationally. Musti is still in an investment phase, and management expects Musti EBITDA margin expected to recover to around 15% in 2027 after current investment phase. For now, that looks more like delayed contribution than a value-destroying problem, but it is still a watchpoint.

The valuation debate is no longer about whether Sonae is growing

A 67% share-price gain changes the setup

The easy part of the story is gone. After a 67% year-on-year share-price run, Sonae is no longer a sleepy retail name waiting to be rediscovered. The stock at €2.015 still trades at about 0.7x net asset value per share of €2.89, so the debate has shifted from growth to whether the discount is justified.

Bulls can still argue that the group is being priced below its asset base even after the rerating, especially with NAV increased 18% year-on-year to €5.6bn and €121m in dividends supporting shareholder returns. Bears will argue that holding-company discounts can persist if growth cools before the market is ready to assign a higher multiple.

What would challenge the bull case

The simplest bear case is not dramatic: mean reversion. Q2 turnover growth was 5.6%, while H1 growth was 6.3%. That is solid, but it does not suggest automatic acceleration into the second half. Underlying EBITDA margin improved to 9.9% from 9.5%, which is encouraging but still modest.

The balance sheet is not the issue. Sonae said Net financial debt reduced by over €180m year-on-year to €1.8bn; loan-to-value improved to 10.6%. That gives management room to keep investing and deleveraging, but it does not replace the need for sustained store-level execution.

What investors should watch into the second half

What is likely priced in-and what is not

The recovery narrative is probably partly priced in after the share price appreciated 67% year-on-year to €2.015. What may not be fully priced is whether Sonae can keep converting traffic and sales growth into profit.

Management has already pointed to Positive momentum anticipated to continue into the second half of the year. That means the next quarter does not need a miracle. It needs the same disciplined execution behind turnover up 6.3% year on year in the first half and Underlying EBITDA rose by 13% to €536 million.

The practical conclusion

The H1 results look credible. MC and Continente are doing the heavy lifting, other chains are broadly helping, and profitability is improving alongside sales. The next few quarters matter because they will show whether this was the start of a durable operating trend-or just a strong first half.