Rush Street Raised Guidance Again-Is RSI Still Rich at 19.6x Earnings?

Guidance rose, but the valuation debate did not settle

RSI's latest quarter improved the business case, but it did not close the valuation argument. Bulls can point to 46% Q2 revenue growth and another guidance raise. Bears will argue that the stock now needs proof the momentum can hold, not just a fresh beat.

Why the bar moved higher

Expectations have shifted. Over the past 90 days, the market's full-year revenue view rose to $1.52 billion in full-year revenue from $1.41 billion. That makes the latest quarter more important, but it also leaves less room for execution slips.

Why investors are split at this multiple

At roughly 19.6x forward P/E, the disagreement is straightforward. Bulls see a growing business with improving estimates and a model that still has to prove itself quarter by quarter. Bears see a stock that is getting harder to buy because the multiple depends on continued execution.

RSI's operating momentum still looks real

Two strong quarters in a row

The core numbers are hard to dismiss. Q2 produced $393.8 million in revenue and $64.6 million in adjusted EBITDA. That followed Q1's $370.4 million in revenue and $60.2 million in adjusted EBITDA. Another record quarter after a record quarter suggests the business is not just working in hindsight.

User growth is still feeding the model

RSI also reported 64% North American online casino MAU growth in Q2, after 62% growth in the same segment in Q1. MAUs rose from about 839,000 in Q1 to roughly 949,000 in Q2. That sequence matters because it shows both demand and platform stability.

Profit kept pace with revenue

Revenue and profit both moved higher, with revenue climbing from $370.4 million to $393.8 million and adjusted EBITDA rising from $60.2 million to $64.6 million. That supports the view that growth is not coming solely from heavier spending. For now, the operating model appears to be scaling.

The real question is whether 20x forward earnings is justified

The debate is no longer whether RSI looks healthy. It is whether investors should pay a premium for a business that already looks good.

The support on the bull case

If you keep it simple, the case is not hard to understand. RSI is still growing 28% LTM revenue, turning about 13% of revenue into operating cash flow, and sitting in a net cash position. That combination matters because the story is being supported by cash generation, not leverage.

Why the valuation still feels tight

The pressure point is the earnings base. Over the past 90 days, consensus 2026 EPS fell to $0.37 and 2027 EPS fell to $0.53. If revenue keeps rising while forward earnings estimates drift lower, the stock starts to look less like a bargain and more like a good company trading at a demanding multiple.

What likely moves the stock next

The next repricing catalyst is more likely to come from estimate revisions than from headline growth alone. If RSI can stabilize earnings expectations while maintaining revenue momentum, the current multiple can hold. If not, valuation pressure is more likely to come from a lower earnings base than from a sharp drop in revenue.

What to watch on the next earnings cycle

The next clear checkpoint is RSI's next earnings call on July 29, 2026. That matters because the market has already moved higher on revenue expectations while earnings expectations have softened a bit, so investors need proof that demand is converting into cleaner profit higher full-year revenue expectations with softer EPS expectations.

What would reinforce the bull case

• Management needs to hold the raised full-year EBITDA range and show another quarter of revenue beating demand raised full-year guidancerecord quarterly revenue.
• User growth still needs to translate into repeat usage and better profit conversion, not just a larger headline user count.
• If the outlook stays firm and the company keeps matching growth with profit, the premium story remains credible.

What would weaken the setup

• If new market access continues to lift revenue while earnings estimates keep drifting lower, the stock becomes harder to frame as a true compounder.
• If management steps back from the raised outlook, it would suggest the recent acceleration is harder to sustain than the latest quarter implies.

My read: stay constructive, but treat this as a confirmation trade. At 19.6x forward P/E, RSI does not need perfection, but it does need one more clean quarter that keeps growth and profit aligned.