Renault's Leadership Crossroads: Navigating EV Ambitions and Chinese Competition

The abrupt departure of Renault CEO Luca de Meo on June 15, 2025, marks a pivotal inflection point for the French automaker. His exit—citing the completion of his “Renaulution” strategy—leaves Renault at a critical juncture, balancing fragile progress in electrification against rising threats from Chinese rivals and internal governance challenges. With shares plummeting over 6% following the announcement, investors must now assess whether Renault's next leader can stabilize its trajectory or derail its hard-won gains.

The De Meo Legacy: Progress and Unfinished Business

De Meo's tenure (2020–2025) was defined by a radical overhaul: rescuing Renault from near-bankruptcy, revitalizing its product lineup with iconic EVs like the all-electric Renault 5, and forging strategic alliances with Geely to tackle cost pressures. Under his leadership, Renault achieved carbon neutrality goals for 2040 and positioned itself as a leader in affordable EVs. Yet his abrupt exit disrupts the “Futurama” plan, a five-year strategy for global partnerships, defense diversification, and China market expansion.

The immediate risks are stark. De Meo's personal relationships underpinned key initiatives: the pending IPO of Ampere, Renault's EV unit, and partnerships with Geely on joint engine production. Without his leadership, these projects face execution delays. Meanwhile, Renault's shares have slumped, reflecting investor anxiety about leadership continuity.

Leadership Options: Le Vot's Pragmatism vs. Picat's Experience

The board faces a binary choice: promote an insider or recruit an outsider.

Denis Le Vot (Internal Candidate):
Current head of Dacia, Le Vot has delivered stellar results. Dacia's Sandero, Europe's top-selling car in 2024, and its Duster SUV have thrived under his cost-conscious strategy. Le Vot's experience managing Renault's Turkey operations and Nissan's North American division suggests he can navigate global alliances. His focus on affordability aligns with Dacia's “Best Value for Money” ethos, critical in countering Chinese rivals like Chery and Geely.

However, Le Vot lacks De Meo's vision for high-risk, high-reward moves like the Futurama plan. His strength lies in operational stability, not strategic reinvention.

Maxime Picat (External Candidate):
Currently Stellantis' head of global purchasing, Picat brings expertise in supply chains and brand management. His leadership at Peugeot during its SUV boom (2012–2021) offers a playbook for rejuvenating Renault's lagging premium models. Picat's outsider status could also shake up Renault's bureaucratic culture, though his lack of direct union negotiation experience poses risks. Unions have already criticized partnerships with Geely, fearing job losses and eroded in-house expertise.

Strategic Crossroads: Partnerships and Chinese Competition

Renault's alliances now face critical tests. Its 10% stake in Nissan—down from 15%—signals a shift toward looser ties, while its collaboration with Geely remains vital. The joint engine venture with Geely has cut costs, but labor unions warn it risks overreliance on Chinese partners. Meanwhile, Chinese automakers now rank as Renault's top threats: BYD, Geely, and Chery now occupy 14th, 16th, and 17th places in global sales rankings, respectively, while Renault slips to 15th.

Dacia's success in markets like Spain (Sandero sales up 60.8% in May 2025) and Morocco (up 45.5%) offers a bulwark against these rivals. Yet Dacia's hybrid and EV push—evident in the Bigster's pre-orders—must accelerate to stay ahead.

Investment Outlook: Risks and Opportunities

Near-Term Risks:
- Leadership Uncertainty: The search for a CEO could delay critical decisions on Ampere's IPO and China strategy, keeping investors on edge.
- Union Pushback: Geely partnerships may face strikes or slowdowns if labor demands are ignored.
- Chinese Competition: BYD and Geely's aggressive pricing in EVs could squeeze Renault's margins.

Long-Term Opportunities:
- Dacia's Scalability: Its 6.1% market share in Spain and cost-effective EVs position it as a growth engine.
- Alliance Synergies: A renewed focus on Geely's EV tech and Nissan's R&D could yield cost savings.

Investment Recommendation

Hold for Now, Buy on Clarity:
- Wait for Leadership Signal: If Le Vot is chosen, focus on Dacia's execution in emerging markets. A Picat hire would require confidence in his ability to manage unions and alliances.
- Monitor Synergies: Track progress on the Ampere IPO and Geely collaboration. A successful Q3 2025 earnings report could reverse the stock's dip.
- Chinese Competition Hedge: Consider shorting BYD or Geely stocks if Renault's leadership stabilizes and gains traction in cost-sensitive markets.

Renault's future hinges on whether its next CEO can blend Le Vot's operational rigor with Picat's strategic boldness—or find a third path. For now, patience is warranted.

Final Take: Renault's leadership transition is a high-stakes gamble. Investors should prioritize clarity on the CEO choice and execution of cost-saving synergies before committing. The automaker's fate rests on whether it can turn Dacia's success into a blueprint for global resilience—and avoid becoming a footnote in China's automotive ascent.