Pre-Market Volatility as a Strategic Entry Point for Growth-Driven Investors

The modern equity market is a theater of asymmetries, where information asymmetry and liquidity imbalances create opportunities for those who know where to look. For growth-driven investors, pre-market volatility-often dismissed as noise-can be a goldmine of high-conviction entry points. The recent performances of Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX) and Alumis (ALMS) exemplify how early liquidity imbalances and news-driven gaps can signal actionable momentum, offering a window to capitalize on institutional footprints before broader market participation dilutes returns.

VTYX: A Case of Liquidity Sweeps and Analyst Optimism

On December 2025, VTYX's pre-market price plummeted 15.35% to $7.94, driven by delayed interim data for its Phase 2 trial of VTX2735 in recurrent pericarditis. This sharp decline, however, was not a terminal event but a liquidity sweep-a false break of key levels that triggered stop-loss orders and allowed institutional players to collect liquidity.

The subsequent next-day rebound, with the stock opening at $9.03 on January 1, 2026, suggests that the pre-market sell-off was a temporary imbalance rather than a fundamental re-rating. Analysts remain bullish, with a median price target of $14.00 (82.05% upside) reflecting confidence in the company's pipeline advancements and strategic hires. This case underscores how pre-market volatility, when analyzed through the lens of liquidity sweeps and institutional order blocks, can reveal contrarian opportunities.

ALMS: News-Driven Gaps and Institutional Anchors

Alumis (ALMS) provides a contrasting narrative. On January 6, 2026, its stock surged 94.36% in pre-market trading to $16.15, fueled by positive Phase 3 trial results for envudeucitinib in plaque psoriasis. This surge created a fair value gap (FVG)-a void in the price chart where three consecutive candles leave a non-overlapping imbalance- confirming institutional intent to drive the stock higher. The next-day close at $22.30, a 52-week high, validated the FVG as a high-probability retest zone. Here, the pre-market move was not merely a reaction to news but a structured displacement aligned with order blocks (OBs) formed near key liquidity levels. For investors, this illustrates how news-driven gaps, when paired with institutional footprints, can signal durable momentum.

The Confirmation Model: A Framework for Precision

The confirmation model-comprising liquidity sweeps, FVGs, and OBs-offers a systematic approach to filter noise from institutional signals. A liquidity sweep, as seen in VTYX's December 2025 decline, acts as an inducement for institutions to collect liquidity before initiating a trend. This is followed by a displacement that creates an FVG, such as ALMS's January 6 surge, which marks a footprint of intent. Finally, an OB, often overlapping with the FVG zone, serves as an anchor for institutional orders. When these three elements align, as in ALMS's case, the probability of a sustained move increases significantly.

Strategic Implications for Growth Investors

For seasoned investors, the key lies in prioritizing assets where pre-market volatility reflects institutional activity rather than retail-driven panic. VTYX's delayed data release and ALMS's trial success both created liquidity imbalances that were swiftly resolved by institutional players. The next-day follow-through-VTYX's rebound and ALMS's 52-week high-demonstrates that pre-market gaps often act as catalysts for broader market participation. By identifying these patterns early, investors can enter positions ahead of the herd, capturing alpha before volatility compresses spreads.

Conclusion

Pre-market volatility is not a chaotic anomaly but a structured signal. The cases of VTYX and ALMS reveal how liquidity imbalances and news-driven gaps, when analyzed through the confirmation model, can pinpoint high-conviction opportunities. For growth-driven investors, the lesson is clear: the early hours of the market are not just a precursor to trading but a battleground where institutional intent is laid bare. Those who master this terrain will find themselves ahead of the curve, capitalizing on asymmetries before they become mainstream.