Pemex's 144-Billion Peso EBITDA Looks Strong-So Why Did It Just Post a Loss?

EBITDA looks healthy, but debt and production still complicate the equity story

Pemex's latest quarter looks solid at first glance-but only if you stop at EBITDA.

The tension is straightforward. In the second quarter, Pemex generated 144.23 billion pesos of EBITDA, yet it also reported a 18.02 billion peso second-quarter net profit. For the equity story, strong operating performance does not settle much while the balance sheet and the production gap remain unresolved.

First-quarter results showed the same split. Pemex posted a 45.99 billion peso first-quarter net loss while producing 117.8 billion pesos of EBITDA, and it ended the quarter with $79 billion of financial debt. The operating business is still creating value, but after interest, taxes, and debt service, little may have been left for shareholders.

That leaves a simple decision point: if cash generation holds and the production shortfall narrows, the story can improve quickly. If not, investors are still looking at a busy operator with a messy equity profile.

Pemex's operating base still looks functional

Refinery processing held up and output edged higher

Pemex does not look like a business falling apart. Its refineries were still getting work, and upstream output ticked higher.

Pemex processed 1.14 million bpd at its local refineries in the first quarter and 1 million bpd of crude at its domestic refineries in the second. That still points to meaningful asset use and ongoing domestic refining demand.

On the upstream side, the move was small but positive. Pemex and partners produced 1.652 million bpd in the first quarter and 1.66 million bpd in the second. That remains below the government's 1.8 million bpd target, but it does not look like an abrupt collapse in field performance. The core business is still functioning.

Revenue and operating income suggest the business is still holding together

The income statement also looks more stable than distressed. Second-quarter revenue reached 510.44 billion pesos, and management's summary says operating income was 85–85.5 billion pesos. That matters because positive operating income suggests the core business is still covering a large share of its costs before interest and taxes.

After the first-quarter loss, the rebound to a second-quarter profit is another sign that the operating base is still intact. That does not make Pemex safe; financial debt remained around $77.5 billion. But the ground-level read is clear: refineries are busy, production is holding, and the company generated the highest second-quarter revenue in 14 quarters.

The structural problem is still missing barrels and heavy debt

One good quarter does not fix a longer-term problem.

Pemex is still below the production level policymakers want, and earnings have been less consistent than EBITDA. Earlier this year, the company reported a 190.5 billion-peso fourth-quarter net loss on 436.6 billion pesos of revenue. Then came a first-quarter net loss, followed by a rebound to a second-quarter net profit. That kind of volatility is why many investors still treat this as an incomplete turnaround.

Why the missing barrels matter more than the EBITDA headline

Pemex and its partners produced 1.652 million bpd in the first quarter and 1.66 million bpd in the second. That is up, but it is still short of the government's 1.8 million bpd goal, and Reuters said progress has been slower than hoped. The extra barrels are helping stabilize operations, but they are not enough on their own to change the financing story.

That matters because Pemex is not just an oil company; it also serves state policy goals. Mexico has been pushing more domestic refining, and Pemex has said no additional government support is expected for the remainder of 2026, with budgeted resources directed to debt payments. So the company is being asked to raise output, support domestic refining, and keep managing a very heavy debt burden.

If production stays near current levels, investors may keep seeing a busy operator without a clearer equity thesis.

What would improve the story-and what would keep it stuck

Over the next few quarters, the key question is whether Pemex starts to look more like a turnaround or more like a busy utility.

Bullish signals would be narrower production gaps and steadier refining economics

The constructive path is not complicated. Production needs to keep moving from 1.66 million bpd toward the government's 1.8 million bpd target, and delays in new projects need to shrink. Reuters said progress has been slower than hoped, so bulls need evidence that new projects and partnerships can add barrels faster than expected.

Another positive signal would be steadier downstream performance. Pemex is still prioritizing domestic refining with 1 million bpd of crude at its domestic refineries in the second quarter, and management says market fundamentals indicate robust refining margins through the rest of 2026. If that holds, the downstream side remains economically relevant.

Bearish signals would be flat production and slow debt progress

The bearish read uses the same scorecard with less patience. If output remains near current levels, Pemex stays a company that is still struggling, as Reuters put it, not only to reverse years of declining output but also to reduce its financial obligations.

Similarly, if EBITDA stays healthy but debt only declines slowly from roughly $77.5 billion, the business may look better quarter by quarter without the equity story getting any easier to own.

For now, the cleanest watchpoint is simple: watch the missing barrels, not just the EBITDA headline.