Is Now the Optimal Time to Buy DigitalBridge (DBRG) Amid SoftBank Acquisition Rumors?

The recent surge in speculation surrounding SoftBank Group's potential acquisition of DigitalBridge Group (DBRG) has thrust the digital infrastructure firm into the spotlight. With shares of DBRG surging over 46% in a single session amid rumors of a $25–$35-per-share buyout, investors face a critical question: Is this the optimal moment to invest in a company poised at the intersection of AI-driven infrastructure demand and speculative acquisition fervor?

Strategic Rationale for SoftBank's Interest

SoftBank's Stargate initiative, a $500 billion bet on AI infrastructure in the U.S., underscores its strategic pivot toward high-growth technology sectors. DigitalBridge's appeal lies in its control of a 20.9 gigawatt power bank-a critical asset in an era where energy availability for data centers is a bottleneck for AI expansion. This power capacity, coupled with DigitalBridge's holdings in operators like Vantage Data Centers and Zayo, positions it as a linchpin in the AI infrastructure value chain as reported by Reuters.

The acquisition would align with broader industry trends. By 2030, the global data center infrastructure market is projected to exceed $1 trillion, driven by hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon, which alone invested $200 billion in 2024. SoftBank's move reflects a calculated effort to secure a stake in this growth, leveraging DigitalBridge's existing infrastructure to accelerate its AI ambitions.

Valuation Analysis: Overvaluation or Justified Premium?

DigitalBridge's current valuation metrics appear stretched. As of December 2025, the stock trades at a P/E ratio of 126.5, far exceeding the 24.2 average for the U.S. capital markets industry according to SimplyWall St. Its EV/EBITDA ratio is reported at 31.78 per WiseSheets, though conflicting data points-such as an anomalous 707.58-raise questions about methodological consistency per GuruFocus. These figures suggest the market is pricing in a premium, likely factoring in acquisition speculation rather than current profitability.

However, DigitalBridge's fundamentals are not without merit. Fee-related earnings (FRE) grew 43% year-over-year to $37.3 million in Q3 2025, reflecting robust recurring revenue potential. The company's Fee-Earning Equity Under Management (FEEUM) rose to $40.7 billion, a 19% increase YoY, signaling strong capital formation. Yet, its operational profitability remains challenged, with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins as noted by Timothy Sykes.

Comparing these metrics to the digital infrastructure sector's average EV/EBITDA of 13.04 (as of July 2025) per Equidam, DigitalBridge appears significantly overvalued. However, acquisition premiums often justify such disparities. JPMorgan's price target of $25–$35 implies a 50–100% premium to its December 2025 trading price of $13.30, a range that could be rationalized if the deal closes and SoftBank aims to secure control of DigitalBridge's power assets ahead of competitors.

Sector Growth and Strategic Positioning

The digital infrastructure sector is experiencing exponential growth. The AI data center market alone is projected to expand from $236.44 billion in 2025 to $933.76 billion by 2030, a 31.6% CAGR per Markets and Markets. DigitalBridge's focus on hyperscale data centers and power infrastructure aligns with this trajectory. Its Q3 2025 leasing of 2.6 gigawatts of data center capacity-accounting for one-third of the U.S. hyperscale market per MarketBeat-highlights its operational relevance.

Yet, the company's valuation must be weighed against sector-specific risks. Innovations in liquid cooling and the adoption of small modular reactors (SMRs) could disrupt traditional power models per JLL, while regulatory shifts may impact infrastructure deployment. These uncertainties suggest that while the sector is high-growth, it is not without volatility.

Conclusion: Timing the Investment

The decision to invest in DBRG hinges on two variables: the likelihood of the SoftBank acquisition and the company's intrinsic value post-deal. If the acquisition materializes, the stock could rally toward the $25–$35 range, offering substantial short-term gains. However, if the deal collapses, the stock may correct sharply, given its current valuation is largely speculative.

For long-term investors, DigitalBridge's strategic assets and sector positioning remain compelling. Its power infrastructure is a scarce resource in the AI era, and its recurring fee model provides resilience. Yet, the current P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples suggest the market is already pricing in a best-case scenario.

In this context, the optimal time to buy DBRG may depend on one's risk tolerance. Speculators seeking to capitalize on acquisition momentum might act now, but they should brace for volatility. For value-oriented investors, a clearer entry point may emerge if the stock retraces post-deal uncertainty or if the acquisition's terms become more transparent.