Why Nvidia Stock Is Rising Today

The stock price of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has surged in recent sessions, reflecting a confluence of strategic successes, geopolitical easing, and robust financial performance. Below, we dissect the key drivers behind this momentum, supported by data and market dynamics.

1. Geopolitical Tensions Ease, Fueling Sentiment

The stock’s rebound began with a critical geopolitical development: a 90-day tariff pause announced on April 9, 2025, by the U.S. government. This halted the escalation of tariffs on Chinese imports, which had threatened NVIDIA’s supply chain and sales in Asia. The tariff relief spurred an 18.7% single-day surge in NVIDIA’s shares, as investors bet on reduced near-term trade war risks.

While tariffs remain a long-term risk, the pause alleviated immediate fears. NVIDIA derives 13% of its revenue from China, and its reliance on Taiwan-based semiconductor suppliers makes geopolitical stability critical. The dip in shares from a January 2025 peak of $145 to $95 in early April was partially reversed as optimism returned.

2. Blackwell Architecture: The Engine of AI Dominance

NVIDIA’s Blackwell supercomputers, launched in late 2024, are the cornerstone of its AI-driven growth. These systems, optimized for agentic AI and inference workloads, deliver 25x higher token throughput and 20x lower costs compared to prior chips. In Q4 FY2025 (ended January 26, 2025), Blackwell-powered data center revenue hit $35.6 billion—a 93% year-over-year increase.

The architecture’s scalability has attracted partnerships like the $500 billion Stargate Project, a U.S. initiative to build advanced AI infrastructure. Cloud providers such as AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud now offer NVIDIA’s GB200 systems, amplifying demand for its AI hardware and software.

3. Earnings Strength and Guidance

NVIDIA’s Q4 FY2025 results underscored its market leadership:
- Revenue: $39.3 billion (+78% YoY).
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.89, up from $0.52 a year earlier.
- Gross Margins: 73.5%, reflecting strong pricing power.

The company guided for $43 billion in Q1 FY2026 revenue, signaling continued momentum. Analysts note NVIDIA’s track record of beating estimates in 16 of 18 quarters since 2020, with an average 11% earnings surprise. This consistency has bolstered investor confidence despite near-term headwinds like a $5.5 billion write-down tied to U.S. export restrictions on China.

4. Strategic Partnerships and Software Ecosystem

NVIDIA’s dominance extends beyond hardware. Its CUDA platform, used by 5.9 million developers, and new tools like NVIDIA AI Enterprise and NIM microservices have created high switching costs. Partnerships with:
- Siemens Healthineers (AI in genomics).
- Toyota (autonomous vehicles).
- Cisco (Spectrum-X networking).
- The U.S. government’s Stargate Project,

highlight its role as the backbone of global AI infrastructure. This ecosystem strength positions NVIDIA to capitalize on the $500 billion AI market opportunity.

5. Dividend Increase and Stock Split

NVIDIA’s $0.01 per share dividend (post-split) on April 2, 2025, signaled confidence in cash flow. Combined with its 10-for-1 stock split in June 2024, these moves have made the stock more accessible to retail investors, boosting liquidity and appeal.

Conclusion: A Catalyst-Driven Rally with Long-Term Legs

NVIDIA’s recent rise is justified by three critical pillars:
1. Geopolitical Relief: The tariff pause reduced immediate risks, enabling a 18.7% stock surge on April 9.
2. Technological Supremacy: Blackwell’s performance and partnerships underpin $35.6 billion in Q4 data center revenue—a 93% YoY jump.
3. Financial Resilience: A 78% YoY revenue growth and $43B Q1 guidance reflect sustained AI demand.

Historically, NVIDIA has rebounded sharply after declines: a 65% recovery post-2018 crypto crash, 100% post-2020 pandemic, and 200% post-2022 rate hike fears. Today’s catalysts—combined with its $24.45 forward P/E ratio (vs. a five-year average of 71.5x)—suggest this dip has priced in risks.

Investors should note the $5.5B write-down and China’s energy-efficiency rules, which threaten 13% of revenue. Yet, NVIDIA’s AI leadership and track record of outperforming expectations make it a compelling long-term bet. As CEO Jensen Huang notes, the company is “redefining the rules of computing.” For now, the stock’s upward trajectory appears secure.