Newmont Surged 2.7% Intraday, Can Gold's Rally Fuel a New Earnings-Driven Bull Run?

Summary
• Newmont (NEM) hits 52-week high of $61.715, trading at 2.7% above previous close
• Q2 earnings expected to show 44.4% YoY EPS growth, with Zacks ESP of +4.42%
• Gold prices up 29% YTD amid trade war fears, driving NEM's premium pricing power

As global trade tensions escalate and gold prices surge past $3,300/oz, Newmont is surging on a bullish trifecta of commodity prices, strategic asset focus, and pre-earnings optimism. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and sector ETFs like RING and GDX up over 2.8%, investors are weighing whether this is a breakout moment for the gold giant ahead of its July 24 earnings report.

Gold Price Surge and Cost Pressures Fuel NEM's Intraday Rally
Newmont's 2.7% intraday surge reflects a strategic convergence of macro forces and operational discipline. While gold prices have risen 29% year-to-date, driving NEM's realized gold price estimate to $2,953/oz (25.8% YoY), the stock is navigating a tightrope between margin compression and pricing power. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) hit $1,651/oz in Q1 and are expected to rise marginally in Q2 due to sustaining capital investments. This cost headwind contrasts with the company's strategic divestitures of non-core assets and focus on Tier 1 operations, which have improved operational leverage. The market is pricing in a Zacks Rank #2 'Buy' with a 4.42% Earnings Surprise Probability, suggesting confidence in management's ability to offset costs with higher gold prices.

Gold Sector in Sync with NEM's Bullish Momentum
Newmont's 2.7% gain mirrors the broader gold sector's strength, with leveraged ETFs like RING (+2.86%) and GDX (+2.79%) tracking the move. Sector leader Barrick Mining (B) is up 2.25%, demonstrating cohesive industry momentum. This synchronized performance validates the sector's thesis of gold as a geopolitical hedge, with NEM's premium valuation (12.32x forward P/E vs. 12.04x industry average) reflecting its Tier 1 asset focus and stronger liquidity position. The $4.62B Q2 revenue forecast suggests Newmont is outpacing peers like Kinross Gold (KGC) in capitalizing on the current gold cycle.

Options Playbook: Leveraging NEM's Bullish Setup with Gamma-Driven Calls
• 200-day average: $48.44 (well below current price)
• RSI: 55.38 (neutral zone)
• MACD: 0.80 (bullish divergence from signal line at 1.05)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $61.48, just below upper band of $61.095

Newmont's technicals paint a textbook breakout scenario. The stock is trading above all key moving averages with RSI in neutral territory, suggesting room for further appreciation. With the 52-week high at $61.715 and 200-day support at $41.29, the $60-62 range represents critical resistance. Leveraged ETFs like RING (+2.86%) and GDX (+2.79%) validate the sector's strength, but NEM's standalone fundamentals (healthy cash flow, premium valuation) position it as a better pure-play.

Top Options Picks:
• NEM20250801C60 (Call, $60 strike, 8/1 exp)
• IV: 50.58% (moderate)
• Leverage: 20.51%
• Delta: 0.63 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.1758 (aggressive time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0697 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: $10,708
• IV: Implied volatility suggests balanced risk/reward
• Leverage: Strong capital efficiency for directional bets
• Gamma: High sensitivity to price movement ideal for short-term plays
• Turnover: Sufficient liquidity for entry/exit
This call option offers a 57.89% price change potential if gold prices hold above $3,300/oz. A 5% upside scenario (to $64.55) would yield a payoff of $4.55/share, with delta/theta balance favoring a 5-7 day holding period.

• NEM20250801C61 (Call, $61 strike, 8/1 exp)
• IV: 52.03%
• Leverage: 24.61%
• Delta: 0.5585
• Theta: -0.1739
• Gamma: 0.070986
• Turnover: $14,209
• IV: Mid-range volatility for controlled risk
• Leverage: Strong capital efficiency
• Gamma: High sensitivity to price movement
• Turnover: High liquidity for short-term trading
This contract offers 57.23% price change potential with a 5% upside scenario (to $64.55) yielding $3.55/share payoff. The 0.55 delta balances directional exposure with time decay, making it ideal for a 7-10 day holding period.

Trading Outlook: With RSI near 55 and MACD showing bullish divergence, the $60-62 range is critical. Bulls should target a break above $61.715 (52-week high) to validate the breakout. Aggressive position sizing in the C60/C61 calls could capitalize on a potential $64.55 target. If the $60 strike holds, the 8/1 expiration date offers ample time for the July 24 earnings report to drive momentum.

Backtest Newmont Stock Performance
The backtest of NEM's performance after a 3% intraday surge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with win rates and returns increasing across 3, 10, and 30 days. This indicates the strategy's effectiveness in capturing short-term movements, with a maximum return of 1.08% over 30 days, suggesting that holding NEM after a 3% surge can lead to modest but consistent gains.

Position for Earnings-Driven Breakout: Watch for $61.715 Clearing
Newmont's current trajectory suggests a well-structured breakout pattern, with technicals aligning with fundamentals (higher gold prices, strategic asset focus). The key inflection point will be the July 24 earnings report, where a beat on the $1.04/share consensus could catalyze a move above $61.715. With the sector leader Barrick (B) up 2.25% and leveraged ETFs like RING and GDX showing strong momentum, investors should position for a potential 2.7% extension in the near term. For those seeking directional exposure, the NEM20250801C60 and C61 calls offer leveraged access to this thesis, with a 5-7 day holding period optimal for capturing earnings-driven momentum.