Newmont Soars 3.08% on Earnings Momentum and Gold Price Rally – What’s Fueling This Surge?

Summary
• Newmont (NEM) surges 3.08% to $64.52, hitting a 52-week high of $66.57.
• Earnings momentum accelerates: EPS growth (TTM) at 129.6%, revenue up 38.4% YoY.
• Gold futures jump 2.1% to $3,416.60 amid Trump-era policy uncertainty and weak jobs data.
• $3.1 billion in divestiture proceeds and a $3 billion buyback plan add to bullish narrative.

Newmont’s intraday surge reflects a confluence of robust earnings growth, gold price tailwinds, and strategic capital reallocation. With gold futures trading near multi-month highs and the stock trading at 8.97x forward PE, investors are betting on a sustained rally in gold-linked equities. The stock’s 3.08% gain today, fueled by a 63.5% EPS growth forecast and a $3 billion buyback program, positions it as a key play in the gold sector’s ongoing momentum.

Earnings Momentum and Gold Price Rally Drive Newmont's Surge
Newmont’s 3.08% rally is driven by a trifecta of catalysts: 129.6% year-over-year EPS growth (TTM), a 38.4% revenue increase, and a 38.8% profit margin in Q2. The stock benefits from gold’s surge to $3,416.60, fueled by Trump’s shifting tariff policies and weak U.S. jobs data. Additionally, the company’s $3 billion buyback program—funded by $770 million in recent divestiture proceeds—signals confidence in its capital structure. The 52-week high of $66.57 and a 3.08% intraday gain reflect strong demand from investors capitalizing on Newmont’s earnings power and gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Gold Sector Gains Momentum as Barrick Mining (B) Rises 2.71%
The gold sector is rallying broadly, with Barrick Mining (B) up 2.71% as of 15:22 ET. Newmont’s 3.08% gain outpaces peers like Kinross Gold (KGC, +4.87%) and AngloGold Ashanti (AU, +7.14%), suggesting its earnings momentum and buyback program are amplifying its outperformance. The sector’s strength is underpinned by gold’s 2.1% surge, driven by fears of prolonged rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainty. Newmont’s strategic focus on gold and disciplined capital returns position it as a sector leader amid rising demand.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Call Options for NEM’s Rally
• 200-day MA: $48.86 (below current price); RSI: 54.88 (neutral); MACD: 1.51 (bullish divergence).
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $65.31, Middle at $60.71, Lower at $56.10 (current price near upper band).
• 30D support/resistance: $58.02–$58.19 (30D), $41.03–$41.60 (200D).

Top Call Option 1: NEM20250808C64
• Code: NEM20250808C64
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $64
• Expiration: 2025-08-08
• IV: 32.16% (moderate)
• LVR: 50.05% (high leverage)
• Delta: 0.6039 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.2853 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1585 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 50,740
• Payoff (5% upside to $67.75): $3.75 per contract.
This contract offers aggressive leverage for a short-term rally, with high gamma to capitalize on volatility.

Top Call Option 2: NEM20250808C67
• Code: NEM20250808C67
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $67
• Expiration: 2025-08-08
• IV: 33.32% (moderate)
• LVR: 269.04% (extreme leverage)
• Delta: 0.1791 (low sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1239 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.1039 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 257,816
• Payoff (5% upside to $67.75): $0.75 per contract.
This high-leverage call benefits from Newmont’s momentum, with liquidity to ensure execution.

If gold holds above $3,360 and Newmont breaks $64.52, NEM20250808C64 offers a high-gamma, high-leverage play for a $66.57 breakout. Aggressive bulls may consider NEM20250808C67 for a speculative move into the 52-week high.

Backtest Newmont Stock Performance
Newmont (NEM) has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term performance following a 3% intraday surge. The backtest data indicates that 52.03% of days experience a return within the first three days, with an average return of 0.19% over that period. The 10-day win rate is slightly lower at 51.53%, with an average return of 0.11%. Over 30 days, the win rate increases to 54.75%, with an average return of 0.79%. The maximum return observed following the intraday surge was 1.33%, which occurred on day 57 after the event.

Act Now: NEM’s Rally Shows No Signs of Slowing – Watch These Key Levels
Newmont’s 3.08% rally is underpinned by earnings momentum, gold price strength, and a $3 billion buyback program. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $66.57 and RSI at 54.88, the technical outlook remains bullish. The sector leader, Barrick Mining (B), rose 2.71% today, reinforcing the gold sector’s strength. Investors should monitor the $64.52 current level and $60.10 support. A breakout above $66.57 could trigger a retest of the 52-week high, while a breakdown below $60.10 may signal a pullback. Watch for a $66.57 breakout or $60.10 breakdown for directional clarity.