Newmont Corporation (NEM): A Beacon of Resilience in 2025’s Large-Cap Landscape?

The year 2025 has been marked by market turbulence, with geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and shifting investor sentiment defining the investment landscape. Amid this volatility, Newmont Corporation (NEM), the world’s largest gold producer by market capitalization, has emerged as one of the most compelling stories among large-cap stocks. With a Year-to-Date (YTD) return of 43.35% as of May 5, 2025, NEM has not only outperformed the S&P 500 (^GSPC), which rose just 3.93%, but also secured a prominent position among its large-cap peers. This article examines whether NEM’s performance truly ranks among the best—and what this tells us about value creation in uncertain times.

YTD Performance: A Gold Rush for Investors

NEM’s meteoric rise in 2025 has been fueled by a confluence of macroeconomic and company-specific factors. By mid-April, its YTD return stood at 38.3%, driven by a 24.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $5 billion and a surging average realized gold price of $2,944 per ounce—up from $2,090 in 2024. By May, this momentum had propelled its return to 43.35%, a stark contrast to the broader market’s tepid gains.

To contextualize NEM’s performance, consider this comparison:

Large-Cap Standout: Positioning in the Rankings

When evaluating NEM’s standing among large-cap stocks, the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term (through April 25, 2025) provide a critical lens. During this period, NEM ranked 5th among top performers, trailing only Palantir (PLTR) at +56.6%, Philip Morris International (PM) at +41.6%, Dollar General (DG) at +20%, and Verisign (VRSN) at +35.6%. This ranking underscores NEM’s shift from its February position of 9th in the S&P 500’s top 10, where it had a YTD return of 25.04%.

The key distinction for NEM is its ability to sustain growth amid sector-specific tailwinds. While AI stocks like an unnamed “#1 AI stock pick” surged even higher, NEM’s +38.3% to +43.35% YTD return firmly anchors it among the elite large-cap performers.

Drivers of Success: Gold, Strategy, and Sentiment

1. Gold’s Safe-Haven Rally: Rising geopolitical risks and inflation fears have driven gold prices to historic highs. Goldman Sachs’ $3,700/oz price target for 2025—up from $2,090 in 2024—has amplified NEM’s profitability.
2. Strategic Asset Optimization: NEM’s decision to divest non-core assets, such as the Porcupine and Éléonore mines, reduced debt by $1.4 billion while focusing resources on high-margin Tier 1 operations.
3. Analyst Confidence: A “Moderate Buy” consensus with a mean target price of $62.51 (implying an 18.6% upside as of April 2025) reflects faith in NEM’s execution.

Sector vs. AI: A Question of Context

While NEM’s performance is undeniably strong, it operates in a sector fundamentally different from AI-driven stocks. The latter’s gains—such as the unnamed stock’s outperformance versus NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO), which lost ~25%—reflect transformative technological shifts. NEM, however, benefits from cyclical demand for gold, a finite resource with enduring safe-haven appeal.

This distinction matters: NEM’s rise is less about disruption and more about resilience. Its +43.35% YTD return positions it as a standout in the commodities space, even if it trails AI stocks in absolute terms.

Conclusion: NEM’s Case for Long-Term Value

The data is unequivocal: Newmont Corporation has been one of the best-performing large-cap stocks in 2025, driven by gold’s resurgence and strategic asset management. With a YTD return 11 times higher than the S&P 500 and a top-five ranking among large-caps, NEM’s performance is a testament to its ability to navigate macroeconomic headwinds.

Yet investors must contextualize this success. Gold’s price trajectory—bolstered by geopolitical uncertainty and central bank buying—remains critical. Should gold prices dip below $2,500/oz, NEM’s margins could compress, as seen in 2024 when lower prices pressured profits. Conversely, if Goldman Sachs’ $3,700/oz target is met, NEM could see further gains.

In sum, NEM’s 2025 performance cements its status as a large-cap leader in its sector, but its trajectory hinges on external factors beyond its control. For investors seeking stability in volatile markets, NEM offers compelling upside—provided they remain mindful of the gold price’s capricious nature.