Navigating the Carry to Anti-Carry Transition in Natural Resources

The global natural resources sector is at a pivotal inflection point, marked by a structural shift from carry to anti-carry dynamics. This transition, driven by geopolitical tensions, energy security imperatives, and the accelerating demand for AI infrastructure, demands a recalibration of investment strategies. The Macquarie Natural Resources Fund's Q3 2025 performance, coupled with evolving IEA sentiment and uranium supply chain disruptions, underscores the urgency for investors to reallocate capital into undervalued commodity equities and energy transition plays.

Macquarie's Q3 2025 Performance: A Barometer of Market Regime Shifts

The Macquarie Natural Resources Fund's Institutional Class shares outperformed its benchmark during Q3 2025. This outperformance was fueled by strong growth stock performance and a surge in investor optimism over the minimal inflationary impact of tariffs. Crucially, enthusiasm for AI infrastructure further bolstered market sentiment. The fund's strategic focus on energy security and critical minerals, as highlighted in Macquarie Capital's Vantage 2025 report, reflects a broader industry pivot toward sectors insulated from traditional macroeconomic cycles.

Meanwhile, Macquarie Asset Management's closure of its $3 billion Green Energy Transition Solutions (MGETS) fund signals a structural reallocation of capital toward decarbonization projects, including renewable energy storage and carbon capture. This move aligns with the IEA's 2025 analysis, which emphasizes the growing complexity of energy markets and the need for long-term contracting over short-term volatility.

Uranium Supply Constraints and the AI-Driven Energy Transition

The uranium market epitomizes the carry-to-anti-carry transition. Despite spot prices fluctuating due to inventory adjustments and speculative unwinding, structural supply constraints-such as labor shortages, regulatory delays, and limited processing capacity-have rendered price signals ineffective in resolving the deficit. Global uranium demand is projected to reach 67,000 tonnes by 2025, driven by AI infrastructure's insatiable appetite for stable, carbon-neutral power.

This demand surge has redefined uranium's role in energy security. As AI data centers require 60 gigawatts of additional power by 2030, nuclear energy's high capacity factors and reliability make it indispensable. Consequently, long-term uranium contracts-now commanding prices above $86 per pound-have become the dominant pricing mechanism. Producers with operational track records, such as enCore Energy and Uranium One, are gaining strategic advantage.

AI Infrastructure and the Broader Resource Demand Surge

The AI revolution is not confined to uranium. By 2030, AI data centers are projected to consume 731–1,125 million cubic meters of water annually, equivalent to the household usage of 6–10 million Americans. This dual demand for electricity and water necessitates a reevaluation of power generation strategies, with nuclear and natural gas emerging as critical baseload solutions.

The IEA's 2025 World Energy Outlook underscores the fragility of global supply chains, particularly for critical minerals like copper and lithium, which are essential for electrification and AI-driven manufacturing. Persistent copper deficits and the decoupling of gold from monetary policy further highlight the need for diversified, resilient portfolios.

Strategic Positioning for 2025/2026

Investors must now prioritize assets that align with the new market regime. The Macquarie Natural Resources Fund's Q3 performance demonstrates the potential of growth-oriented natural resource equities, particularly those tied to energy transition and AI infrastructure. Uranium producers with long-term contracts and operational scalability, such as enCore Energy and Uranium One, offer compelling value. Similarly, companies involved in critical mineral supply chains-especially those with geopolitical resilience-stand to benefit from sustained demand.

The carry-to-anti-carry transition also necessitates a shift in risk management. Traditional strategies reliant on short-term volatility are increasingly obsolete in a world where structural deficits and policy-driven demand dominate. Instead, investors should focus on long-term contracting, geographic diversification, and technological innovation to hedge against supply chain vulnerabilities.

Conclusion

The confluence of AI-driven energy demand, uranium supply constraints, and Macquarie's strategic realignments marks a defining moment for natural resources investors. As the IEA and market participants alike recognize the limitations of carry-based strategies, the case for immediate reallocation into undervalued commodity equities and energy transition plays becomes irrefutable. The next 12–18 months will test the adaptability of investors, but those who act decisively will be well-positioned to capitalize on the structural shifts reshaping the sector.