Montenegro’s 2028 EU Accession: A Strategic Window for Early-Stage Investors

The European Union’s enlargement process has long been a catalyst for economic transformation, offering small, reform-minded states a unique opportunity to align with global standards and attract capital. Montenegro, a small Adriatic nation, is poised to become the EU’s 28th member state by 2028, a timeline that has galvanized both domestic and international investors. This analysis explores how Montenegro’s geopolitical positioning, economic reform momentum, and integration into the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) create a compelling case for early-stage investment in its infrastructure, tourism, and technology sectors.

Geopolitical Positioning: A Gateway to Europe

Montenegro’s strategic location at the crossroads of the Balkans and the Adriatic Sea positions it as a critical node for regional connectivity and energy security. As a NATO member since 2017 and a candidate for EU accession, Montenegro has become a linchpin in Western Europe’s efforts to stabilize the Western Balkans and counter Russian influence. According to a report by Bloomberg, President Jakov Milatovic has leveraged this geopolitical role to argue that Montenegro’s alignment with EU and NATO standards makes it an “ideal candidate” for simultaneous EU accession and euro adoption by 2028 [5].

The country’s unorthodox pitch to join the EU and adopt the euro concurrently reflects a strategic understanding of its value as a partner. By aligning its monetary policy with the eurozone, Montenegro aims to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in energy and transport infrastructure, particularly in renewable energy and liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects [4]. This dual transition, if successful, would position Montenegro as a regional energy hub, further enhancing its geopolitical relevance.

Economic Reform Momentum: A Mixed Record

Montenegro’s accession negotiations have advanced significantly, with six out of 33 EU chapters provisionally closed as of 2025 [3]. However, progress has been uneven. While the government has secured EU pre-financing of €26.8 million under the Western Balkans Growth Plan, critics highlight a “lack of political will” in addressing systemic corruption and judicial backsliding [2]. For instance, the closure of Chapter 5 on public procurement has been criticized as a political compromise rather than a genuine reform [2].

Despite these challenges, Montenegro has demonstrated resilience. The government has adopted action plans for Chapters 23 and 24, focusing on judicial independence and human rights, with implementation targeted by 2026 [6]. These reforms, if sustained, could unlock €383 million in conditional funding from the Reform and Growth Instrument for the Western Balkans by 2027 [1]. Such funding is critical for infrastructure projects like the Bar-Boljare highway, which will enhance regional connectivity and support tourism growth [2].

SEPA Integration: A Catalyst for Investment

Montenegro’s integration into SEPA in 2025 marks a transformative milestone. By enabling low-cost, cross-border euro transactions, SEPA is projected to save €38 million annually—equivalent to 0.54% of GDP—through reduced banking fees and improved business efficiency [1]. For investors, this creates a more predictable financial environment, particularly in sectors reliant on international capital flows.

The World Bank’s €8 million loan to modernize digital payment infrastructure further underscores SEPA’s potential to drive investment. By expanding access to digital financial services, the initiative aims to increase digital payment usage by a third before 2030, benefiting underserved populations and SMEs [3]. In tourism, SEPA’s streamlined transactions are expected to boost spending by international visitors, who now face fewer barriers to cross-border payments [5].

Sectoral Opportunities: Infrastructure, Tourism, and Tech

Infrastructure: EU funding for the Bar-Boljare highway and railway upgrades is expected to enhance Montenegro’s connectivity with the EU and regional markets. These projects, co-financed by the EBRD and EU, will improve access to northern regions, unlocking new tourism potential [2].

Tourism: Montenegro’s luxury real estate developments, such as Porto Montenegro and Lustica Bay, have already attracted global investors. SEPA integration and improved infrastructure are likely to amplify this trend, particularly as the country balances tourism growth with sustainability goals [4].

Technology: The government’s tenfold increase in the Innovation Fund’s budget and collaboration with the UAE to establish an IT academy signal a commitment to digital transformation. SEPA’s role in reducing transaction costs for tech startups and SMEs could accelerate Montenegro’s emergence as a regional tech hub [4].

Risks and Considerations

While the outlook is optimistic, investors must remain cautious. Political instability, judicial delays, and foreign interference—particularly from pro-Russian actors—could derail reform momentum [2]. Additionally, Montenegro’s small size and reliance on external financing make it vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks.

Conclusion: A Strategic Window for Investors

Montenegro’s 2028 EU accession represents a rare convergence of geopolitical stability, economic reform, and financial integration. For early-stage investors, the country offers a unique opportunity to capitalize on infrastructure, tourism, and tech sectors before EU membership catalyzes broader economic convergence. However, success hinges on the government’s ability to deliver on its reform agenda and address systemic challenges. Those who act now may find themselves positioned to reap long-term capital gains as Montenegro transitions from a net recipient of EU funds to a strategic partner in the bloc’s south-eastern periphery.

Source:
[1] Montenegro Receives Pre-financing from the EU Growth Plan, [https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/montenegro/montenegro-receives-pre-financing-eu-growth-plan_en]
[2] Without fundamental changes in priorities, Montenegro's EU membership could be delayed, [https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2025/07/21/ewb-interview-dukanovic-without-fundamental-changes-in-priorities-montenegros-eu-membership-could-be-delayed/]
[3] World Bank Supports Montenegro in Expanding Access to Digital Financial Services, [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/07/28/world-bank-supports-montenegro-in-expanding-access-to-digital-financial-services]
[4] Montenegro offers a majestic coastline and the wild beauty of the north, [https://gulfnews.com/gn-focus/montenegro-offers-a-majestic-coastline-and-the-wild-beauty-of-the-north-1.500249922]
[5] Montenegro's Unorthodox Pitch: Join EU and Adopt Euro in 2028, [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-03/montenegro-s-unorthodox-pitch-join-eu-and-adopt-euro-in-2028]
[6] Adoption of Action Plans for Final Benchmarks in Negotiation Chapters 23 and 24 – A Key Step Toward Montenegro's European Future, [https://www.eu.me/en/adoption-of-action-plans-for-final-benchmarks-in-negotiation-chapters-23-and-24-a-key-step-toward-montenegros-european-future/]