Is MARA Holdings a Better Bet Than Bitcoin in a Downturn?

The question of whether MARA Holdings (MARA) offers superior value to Bitcoin (BTC) during market downturns is a compelling one for investors seeking to balance risk and reward in crypto-linked portfolios. While both assets are deeply intertwined with the cryptocurrency ecosystem, their divergent risk profiles and operational dynamics suggest distinct roles in a diversified strategy. This analysis examines their historical performance, volatility metrics, and diversification potential to assess whether MARA might outperform Bitcoin-or conversively, amplify its risks-during periods of market stress.

Historical Performance: Volatility and Asymmetry

MARA Holdings has exhibited a pattern of amplified volatility compared to Bitcoin, particularly during downturns. For instance, during the 2022 crypto market crash, MARA plummeted 90% from November 2021 to December 2022, outpacing Bitcoin's 65% decline. Similarly, in late 2022, MARA fell 64% during a crypto downturn, while Bitcoin dropped only 18%. These examples underscore MARA's dual nature: it can outperform Bitcoin during bullish phases-such as its 195% surge in early 2023 versus Bitcoin's 71% gain-but also suffers steeper losses when sentiment turns bearish.

This asymmetry stems from MARA's business model. As a Bitcoin miner and corporate holder, its stock price is influenced not only by Bitcoin's price but also by operational metrics like hash rate growth and energy efficiency according to market analysis. This dual exposure creates a leveraged effect: when Bitcoin rallies, MARA benefits from both price appreciation and operational gains; when Bitcoin falls, operational costs and regulatory pressures exacerbate losses.

Risk Metrics: Beta, Correlation, and Volatility

Quantitative risk metrics further highlight the divergent profiles of MARA and Bitcoin. MARA's beta coefficient relative to the S&P 500 is exceptionally high, ranging from 5.44 to 6.37 according to FinBox data, indicating that its price swings are far more pronounced than those of the broader market. In contrast, Bitcoin's beta relative to the S&P 500, while elevated, typically amplifies market movements by a factor of 3–5 as reported by Nasdaq. This suggests that MARA is a riskier asset than Bitcoin itself, particularly during downturns.

Correlation data also reveals nuances. While MARA and Bitcoin are often seen as closely linked, their 30-day correlation has averaged 0.29 from 2022 to 2026, indicating a low but not negligible relationship. During major corrections, however, their movements have aligned sharply. For example, in December 2025, Bitcoin's 36% drawdown was mirrored by a 40% drop in MARA. This alignment reflects MARA's direct exposure to Bitcoin's price, as the company holds over 27,000 BTC in its treasury.

Volatility ratios further underscore MARA's instability. The stock's daily standard deviation of 80.70% and maximum drawdown of -99.74% according to PortfolioLab dwarf Bitcoin's -93.18% drawdown. Such extremes make MARA a high-risk proposition, even for investors comfortable with crypto's inherent volatility.

Diversification Value: MARA vs. Traditional Assets

In the context of portfolio diversification, MARA's role differs from that of traditional assets like stocks and bonds. Unlike equities or fixed income, which offer relatively stable cash flows, MARA's value is tied to Bitcoin's price and its own operational efficiency. During the 2022–2026 period, MARA's hybrid strategy of mining and Bitcoin accumulation allowed it to generate cash flow while retaining exposure to price appreciation. However, this strategy also amplifies downside risk, as rising energy costs and regulatory scrutiny can erode margins during downturns.

Traditional assets, by contrast, provide lower volatility and more predictable returns. For example, the S&P 500 gained 12% over the past year while MARA fell 47% according to StockAnalysis. Bonds and blue-chip stocks typically exhibit even lower volatility, making them more reliable during market stress. Yet, they lack the potential for outsized gains that MARA-or even Bitcoin-might deliver during crypto rallies.

Strategic Considerations: Operational Efficiency and Long-Term Prospects

MARA's long-term viability hinges on its ability to manage operational costs and leverage technological advancements. The company has invested in low-cost energy solutions, such as Texas wind farms and 2PIC immersion cooling technology according to market reports, to reduce expenses and enhance mining efficiency. These initiatives aim to insulate MARA from Bitcoin's volatility by lowering breakeven costs. However, challenges remain: Bitcoin halvings and rising energy prices could still strain profitability during prolonged downturns as noted in research.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, benefits from its role as a store of value and its growing institutional adoption. While its volatility persists, its correlation with the S&P 500 has tightened in recent years, with a 30-day correlation of 0.77 in 2025. This suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving as a leveraged proxy for tech stocks rather than a standalone macro hedge. For investors seeking exposure to crypto's upside without MARA's operational risks, Bitcoin may remain the safer bet.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Dilemma

The question of whether MARA is a better bet than Bitcoin in a downturn ultimately depends on an investor's risk tolerance and strategic objectives. MARA's potential for outsized gains-such as its 195% surge in early 2023-comes at the cost of amplified downside risk, as seen in its 90% collapse during the 2022 crash. Bitcoin, while volatile, offers a more predictable trajectory and a growing role in institutional portfolios.

For diversification, MARA's low correlation with Bitcoin (0.29) could theoretically enhance a portfolio's risk-adjusted returns. However, during downturns, their movements often align, limiting the diversification benefit. Traditional assets, with their lower volatility and stable cash flows, remain superior for risk-averse investors.

In the end, MARA Holdings is a high-risk, high-reward asset best suited for aggressive investors who can tolerate extreme volatility. Bitcoin, while not risk-free, offers a more balanced exposure to crypto's growth potential. The choice between them is not a simple one but a reflection of the investor's appetite for risk and their view on the future of the crypto ecosystem.