Loma Negra's 2Q26 Call: 12.5% Dollar EBITDA Growth, but Is This Real Demand or Just an FX Shine?

2Q26 Results: Better Dollar EBITDA, but Demand Is Still the Question

Dollar EBITDA rose 12.5%, but the quarter still looks more like a watchlist update than a clear buy signal. After today's 12:00 p.m. U.S. ET conference call, the headline looks reasonable on the surface: net sales revenues increased by 2.1% YoY, dollar EBITDA reached US$ 38 million, up 12.5%, while EBITDA margin fell to 20.2% from 21.2% a year earlier. That combination captures the debate. Bulls can point to healthier dollar earnings despite a soft quarter; bears can argue the top line is barely moving, margins slipped, and FX helped more than end demand.

What the quarter still needs to prove

• Whether construction activity is improving in a durable way or the quarter simply looked friendlier in dollars.
• Whether industry volumes have not yet fully regained the momentum is already reversing, especially across cement, clinker, and ready-mix.
• Whether utilization, pricing, and cost pressures were discussed with enough detail to judge operating quality.
• Whether lower total net financial cost did more of the work than core operating improvement.
• Whether management got more specific on housing, infrastructure, and public-works activity.

If management can answer those questions with clearer volume trends and more concrete project activity, the story gets more interesting. If not, the numbers alone do not justify paying up.

Loma Negra Held the Line, but the Quarter Still Lacked a Clear Share-Gain Signal

Loma Negra remains the leading cement producer in Argentina, which makes this quarter easier to read: if demand were broadening, the category leader should usually show the clearest signal. In 2Q26, though, the read was more about stability than expansion.

The top-line growth was stable, not decisive

The main operating marker was 2.2% Cement segment top-line growth. That is acceptable for a market leader, but it does not yet point to fuller trucks, busier job sites, or obvious share gains versus smaller rivals.

Net profit improved, but that was not the same as stronger demand

Net profit rose to Ps. 7,043 million from Ps. 514 million in the same period last year. The company said that improvement was mainly driven by lower total net financial cost, so the bottom-line jump says more about financing than about a sudden pick-up in construction demand.

The balance sheet did improve

There was one clear operational improvement: Net Debt/LTM Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.30x, down from 1.47x in FY25 and slightly better than 1.33x reported in 1Q26. That makes the company easier to live with while demand slowly firms, even if it still does not prove a demand turn.

What Would Make Loma Negra More Attractive From Here

For now, Loma Negra still looks like a defensive market leader with a cleaner balance sheet, but not yet an automatic chase. The next few quarters should make clear whether this was the start of a real demand recovery or just an in-between quarter.

The next markers that matter

For a company with a network of ready-mix concrete plants and exposure to residential, commercial, industrial and public infrastructure markets, a real recovery should become visible in several places at once:

• More than just stable sales, with clearer evidence that industry volumes have regained momentum.
• Better plant and fleet utilization, which often improves before margins fully recover.
• More specific commentary on housing, infrastructure, and public-works activity.
• Margins that stay near the current 20.2% EBITDA level without relying on favorable accounting or FX.
• A bigger role for operating improvement, rather than lower total net financial cost being the main reason profit improved.

If those signals strengthen together, the bull case gets much easier to support. If they do not, patience still looks like the cleaner setup.

The Next Calendar Checkpoint

The next hard checkpoint is after market close on Thursday, August 6, 2026, with the follow-up call scheduled for 12:00 p.m. U.S. ET (1:00 p.m. BAT), August 7, 2026. If that update shows firmer volumes and more concrete demand, this can move higher on the watchlist. If not, waiting remains the more disciplined approach.