The Lingering Trump Effect: How Biden's Policies Are Shaping U.S. Investments in 2025 and Beyond

The political landscape of July 2025 is a study in continuity. While Donald Trump's presidency ended years ago, his imprint on U.S. policy remains palpable. From trade tariffs to energy dominance, the Biden administration has embraced themes first championed by Trump, creating a political cycle where “rival” policies now serve as a bridge between eras. For investors, this means navigating a landscape where the “Trump Effect” lives on—and presents both opportunities and risks.

Trade and Tariffs: A Double-Edged Sword

The Biden administration's trade policies reflect a stark continuity with Trump-era protectionism. The July 8 deadline for reinstating reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods (set to rise to 125%) signals a persistent aggressive stance toward Beijing.
This creates a clear divide: companies that source locally or have diversified supply chains (e.g., automotive and tech firms) may thrive, while those reliant on low-cost Chinese imports face margin pressure. Investors should favor firms with robust U.S. manufacturing footprints, such as industrial giants like Caterpillar or Boeing, which have already begun reshoring production.

Energy Dominance: Betting on Coal and Nuclear

Biden's revival of coal as a “critical mineral” and push for nuclear expansion marks a sharp turn from his campaign pledges but aligns with Trump's “energy independence” agenda.
While environmentalists decry this shift, investors in coal stocks like Peabody Energy or Arch Resources may see short-term gains as regulatory barriers ease. Meanwhile, nuclear energy firms, such as Westinghouse or firms tied to advanced reactor projects (e.g., NuScale), could benefit from federal funding mandates. However, the long-term viability of coal remains in question, given its environmental costs—a risk that could crater if Biden's policies reverse post-2026 elections.

The Regulatory Rollback Playbook: A Boost for Industry

Biden's “zero-based regulatory budgeting,” which sunsets existing rules by September 2025, mirrors Trump's deregulatory fervor. Sectors like energy (EPA rollbacks) and manufacturing (e.g., the showerhead regulation repeal) stand to gain.
Investors in regulated sectors should proceed cautiously, as uncertainty over rule reinstatement looms. Instead, focus on industries that benefit from deregulation, such as utilities or mining companies with federal lease access.

The Tech and Workforce Pivot: Preparing for the Future

While less flashy, Biden's focus on AI education and apprenticeships signals a long-term bet on tech-driven growth.
Tech stocks tied to AI infrastructure (e.g., NVIDIA or Alphabet) and advanced manufacturing (e.g., 3D printing firms like Proto Labs) could see sustained demand. Meanwhile, HBCUs and education platforms (e.g., Coursera) targeting workforce upskilling may gain from federal support.

Political Risk: The 2026 Wild Card

All these trends hinge on one critical variable: the 2026 elections. A Democratic loss could see policies like nuclear expansion or tariff hikes reversed, while a Republican win might deepen deregulation. Investors should stress-test portfolios for political shifts:
- Defense: Overweight energy and manufacturing stocks that thrive under either party.
- Hedge: Use options or inverse ETFs to guard against regulatory reversals.
- Avoid: Overexposure to sectors like coal, which face existential risks from policy or climate shifts.

Final Take: Navigate the Crosscurrents

The Trump Effect of 2025 isn't about ideology—it's about policy pragmatism. Investors must parse which elements of this hybrid agenda have staying power. Energy and manufacturing sectors offer near-term gains, but with an eye on 2026's verdict. Meanwhile, tech and education plays offer a safer, forward-looking bet. As always, the market rewards those who see beyond the political noise—and prepare for the next cycle.