Kinross Gold Surges 8.85% In Two Days As Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

Kinross Gold Technical Analysis
Kinross Gold (KGC) rose 3.15% in the most recent session, extending its two-day gain to 8.85%, suggesting accelerating bullish momentum.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show a bullish reversal pattern, with the 2025-09-19 candle forming a long green body after a period of consolidation, breaking above the $22.50 resistance. This level now acts as key support, while the 2025-09-22 high of $24.29 presents immediate resistance. A consecutive green candle closing near session highs signals strong buying pressure, but exhaustion may emerge near the $24.30–$25.00 zone, aligning with the April 2025 peak.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approx. $20.80) and 100-day MA ($19.20) maintain upward slopes, confirming a medium-term uptrend. The 200-day MA ($16.50) provides foundational support. The current price ($24.23) trades well above all key moving averages, indicating sustained bullish bias. A potential bullish cross (50-day above 200-day) in late August reinforced the long-term trend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a strengthening bullish crossover, with the histogram expanding positively since early September. However, KDJ’s J-line (currently >90) flags extreme overbought conditions, implying short-term exhaustion risk. While MACD supports continuation, KDJ divergence hints at consolidation or minor pullback potential.
Bollinger Bands
Price trades near the upper band (approx. $24.50), reflecting overextension. Band width expanded sharply during the September rally, confirming volatility-driven upside. A contraction toward the 20-period midline ($22.00) could offer a pullback entry opportunity. Sustained closes above the upper band remain unlikely without consolidation.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 5.53% rally on 2025-09-19 saw volume surge to 29.9M shares (highest in two months), validating breakout conviction. Follow-through volume on the subsequent 3.15% gain was marginally lower (24.96M), introducing minor distribution concerns. Overall, above-average volume during advances supports bullish sentiment.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI (14-period) hovers near 68, approaching overbought territory (>70) but not yet extreme. This aligns with strong momentum though warrants caution. A dip below 55 would signal cooling. Given Kinross Gold’s volatility, RSI alone isn’t a reversal trigger but highlights reversion risk near 70.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib to the March 2025 low ($14.87) and September 2025 high ($24.29):
- 38.2% retracement at $20.50 (aligned with 50-day MA)
- 50% level at $19.60 (near 100-day MA)
- 61.8% support at $18.65 (June–August consolidation zone).
These levels offer high-probability pullback targets. The 23.6% level ($22.10) held as support during the mid-September dip.
Confluence & Divergences
Confluence:
- $22.00–$22.50 consolidates the 50-day MA, 23.6% Fib, and Bollinger midline, establishing strong support.
- $24.30 (psychological resistance + yearly high) faces selling pressure per candlestick wicks.
Divergences: KDJ’s overbought reading contrasts with MACD’s bullish momentum, suggesting near-term indecision. Volume decline during recent peaks needs monitoring for bearish divergence.
Conclusion
Kinross Gold exhibits robust bullish momentum with trend alignment across moving averages, MACD, and volume. However, overextended Bollinger positioning, KDJ overbought signals, and RSI near 70 warrant short-term caution. Key support resides at $22.50 (breakout confirmation) and $20.50 (trend affirmation). A decisive close above $24.30 may propel further upside toward $25.00–$26.00, while failure at $22.50 could trigger profit-taking toward $20.50–$21.00. Probabilistically, consolidation appears likelier than reversal at current levels.