Kinross Gold Surges 5.15% as Bullish Signals Intensify, Golden Cross and MACD Confirm Uptrend

Candlestick Theory

Kinross Gold’s recent price action reveals a strong bullish bias, evidenced by a 5.15% surge on the most recent session. The candlestick pattern suggests a potential reversal from prior bearish momentum, with a long upper shadow indicating rejection of lower levels. Key support levels are forming around the $23.82–$24.26 range, where multiple candlesticks show buying pressure, while resistance is evident near $25.51, the current closing price. The absence of a bearish engulfing pattern or shooting star above $25.51 suggests buyers remain in control, though a breakdown below $24.26 could trigger short-term profit-taking.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (currently around $24.80) is above the 200-day MA ($23.75), forming a golden cross that signals a medium-term bullish trend. The 100-day MA ($24.50) reinforces this, with price holding above both indicators. However, the 200-day MA is approaching the $24.26 support level, suggesting a potential test of this critical threshold. A sustained close below the 50-day MA would indicate waning momentum, while a break above the 100-day MA could extend the upward trend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, confirming short-term bullish momentum. The KDJ oscillator (K=85, D=78) suggests overbought conditions, with K nearing the 80 threshold. However, the lack of divergence between K and price action implies the uptrend may persist. A stochastic crossover below the 50 level would signal caution, but the current alignment supports continuation of the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with price trading near the upper band at $25.51. This overbought position aligns with the RSI and KDJ readings, indicating stretched conditions. A reversion toward the 20-day moving average ($24.90) within the Bollinger Band channel is probable, though a sustained break above the upper band would signal a breakout. The narrowest band contraction occurred in late September, preceding the recent surge, suggesting the current move is part of a post-consolidation rally.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked during the 5.15% rally, validating the strength of the move. The volume profile shows a consistent increase in buying pressure since mid-September, with the most recent session’s volume (9.76 million shares) exceeding the 50-day average. However, the lack of a significant volume surge on the breakdown of key resistance levels (e.g., $25.31) raises questions about the sustainability of the rally if further gains stall.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI stands at 68, nearing overbought territory (70), with no recent divergence. This suggests the rally may continue in the short term, but a move above 70 would heighten caution for a pullback. The 14-day RSI remains above its 21-day moving average, indicating sustained bullish momentum. A drop below 50 would signal weakening momentum, though this is unlikely without a breakdown of the $24.26 support.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels align with critical support and resistance zones. The 38.2% retracement level at $24.70 coincides with the 100-day MA, acting as a dynamic support. The 61.8% level at $24.03 overlaps with the recent low of $23.97, suggesting this area is a confluence of psychological and technical significance. A breakdown below $24.03 would target the 78.6% level at $23.50, while a close above $25.51 would aim for the 100% extension at $26.20.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of a MACD-based strategy from 2022 to 2025-10-13 demonstrates robust performance, with a 56.49% total return versus the benchmark’s 46.42%. The strategy’s outperformance is attributed to timely entries on MACD golden crosses, such as the 2025-10-13 signal, which coincided with a 5.15% price surge. The 0% max drawdown during the test period highlights the strategy’s effectiveness in avoiding downside risks, likely due to strong gold prices and Kinross’s operational resilience. However, the absence of a death cross since 2022 means the strategy remains long-exposed, with no sell signals to mitigate potential overbought conditions.