Kinross Gold Rallies 4.36% on Three-Day 7.92% Gains Technical Indicators Signal Sustained Bullish Momentum

Kinross Gold (KGC) has rallied 4.36% in the latest session, extending a three-day upward trend with a cumulative gain of 7.92%. This recent strength suggests a potential short-term bullish momentum, though technical indicators must be cross-validated for sustainability and potential reversals.

Candlestick Theory

The three-day rally has formed a bullish continuation pattern, with higher highs and higher lows reinforcing the uptrend. Key support levels emerge around $27.92 (December 12 low) and $27.49 (December 2 low), while resistance clusters at $30.39 (January 6 high) and $30.43 (January 6 intra-day high). A breakdown below $27.92 could trigger a retest of the $26.46 (December 8 low) level, whereas a breakout above $30.43 may target the $30.70–$31.00 zone based on prior failed resistance.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (currently ~$28.30), 100-day MA (~$27.70), and 200-day MA (~$25.20) are in a bullish alignment, with the price above all three. The 50-day MA crossing above the 100-day MA in late December confirmed a medium-term uptrend, and the recent price action has maintained this structure. However, the 200-day MA lagging significantly below the shorter-term averages suggests long-term investors may remain cautious. A sustained close below the 50-day MA could invalidate the bullish case.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has expanded positively since late December, reflecting growing bullish momentum, with the MACD line (~$1.20) well above the signal line (~$0.80). The KDJ oscillator (%K ~85, %D ~80) indicates overbought territory, but the %K line remains above %D, suggesting the uptrend may persist. Divergence risks emerge if the %K line fails to rise with new price highs, though the current alignment supports continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the price near the upper band ($30.43), signaling strong short-term momentum. The 20-day SMA (~$28.60) has risen steadily, and the bands’ width suggests heightened activity. A break above the upper band may invite further buying, but a pullback toward the mid-band ($28.90) could see renewed interest if the 50-day MA holds as support.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged in the past three sessions, peaking at $219.75 million on January 6, validating the price strength. However, the volume-to-price ratio (V/P) suggests sustainability only if volume remains above $200 million on follow-through rallies. A declining V/P during price highs may signal waning conviction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI (~72) is in overbought territory, a common occurrence during strong trends. While it may warn of a near-term pullback, the RSI’s failure to peak above 75 suggests exhaustion is not imminent. A drop below 65 would indicate a potential consolidation phase, though the broader uptrend remains intact unless it falls below 50.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels from the December 12 low ($27.92) to the January 6 high ($30.39) include 38.2% at $29.22 and 50% at $29.15. A retest of the 61.8% level ($28.82) could test the trend’s resilience. The 23.6% level ($29.84) may act as a near-term resistance.

Confluence and Divergences

Strong alignment exists between the bullish MA structure, expanding MACD, and rising Bollinger Bands, reinforcing the case for continuation. However, the RSI’s overbought status and KDJ’s near-overbought readings suggest caution. A divergence between price and the RSI during a new high could signal a top.