Kaspi.kz: 41% E-Commerce Growth Says the Playbook Works-Now Investors Must Test Whether Turkey Makes It Bigger

Kaspi's quarter looked slower on profit, but user demand still strengthened

This quarter turned Kaspi.kz from an impressive Kazakh platform into a live test of whether its one-app model can travel. The market's first read was slowdown, and that is reasonable: adjusted EBITDA grew 9% while revenue rose 31%. But that does not look like a fading consumer story. Demand still deepened: e-Commerce orders grew 43%, purchases per consumer rose 44%, and the business remained profitable.

The debate is about scale, not survival

Bulls see a scale-up entering a much larger market. Kaspi's own platform materials describe Türkiye now represents 50% of e-Commerce GMV as part of its next growth phase. If that model works at that scale, today's valuation gap starts to look more meaningful.

Bears have a credible case too. Adjusted EBITDA growth lagged revenue growth, and Turkey is still a invest-to-reshape market rather than a fully proven export. Even so, the board's recommended dividend payout ratio of 64% gives investors a basic checkpoint: income stays in place while the expansion thesis is still being tested.

User behavior is strengthening the core platform

Yes, the quarter passes the smell test. The key question is not whether Kaspi can grow, but whether growth is coming from products people use repeatedly. On that measure, the quarter was encouraging: e-Commerce GMV grew 41%, purchases per consumer increased 44% to 15 per quarter, and Advertising and Delivery Revenue -- Up 73% year over year.

Frequency is rising alongside monetization

The surface reading still focuses on the gap between 31% revenue growth and 9% adjusted EBITDA growth. That gap deserves attention. But one layer deeper, the signals are constructive. Kaspi reports e-Commerce GMV -- Rose 41% year over year on a like-for-like constant currency basis, while e-Commerce Purchase Frequency -- Average consumer purchases per quarter increased 44% to 15, up from 10.4 last year. That points to habit formation, not a one-off spike.

Just as important, monetization is not breaking under more volume. The marketplace is seeing Marketplace Take Rate -- Increased 90 basis points to 15.8% on the back of higher value-added service adoption. In simple terms, more activity is pairing with better value-added monetization, which is what investors want to see from an integrated platform.

Turkey is now the real test of whether the model can scale

Turkey is no longer a small side project. Kaspi says Türkiye now represents 50% of e-Commerce GMV, so the question is no longer whether Kaspi can grow in Kazakhstan. It is whether the one-app loop can work in a larger, more complex market with different competitors, merchant dynamics, and logistics demands.

The bullish case: a bigger audience for the same operating loop

If the model travels, the upside is straightforward. A business already seeing Advertising and delivery revenue grew 73% during the quarter has several paths to turn traffic into profit. Turkey gives Kaspi a much larger consumer base to run that loop against, and management has framed e-Commerce as a way to expand the addressable market while deepening engagement across payments and fintech.

The bearish case: scale may come with a heavier cost structure

The push into Turkey also comes with clearer friction. Revenue rose 31% year-on-year, but adjusted EBITDA grew just 9%. Net income was down 1% year over year, and management cited higher interest expense and the cost of goods sold associated with Hepsiburada's first-party business. That suggests Turkey is not yet a clean copy of Kaspi's home-market economics.

Payments also shows where pressure can build. The earnings highlights note The payment segment experienced a slower revenue growth of 7% year-on-year due to take rate compression, while the full transcript says Payments Total Payment Volume (TPV) -- Up 14% year over year, with revenue growth lagging due to mix-driven take rate compression. If commerce growth leans more heavily on lower-margin activity, profitability can stay the main watchpoint.

What would prove the Turkey thesis right-or wrong

The next few quarters should clarify the story faster than the market may expect. Management says Kaspi is creating an international business, so the real question is whether Turkey begins to look like the same operating loop at larger scale, or something more cumbersome.

Signals that would strengthen the case

• purchases per consumer keep rising, showing usage is becoming habitual rather than transactional.
• Marketplace economics hold up, including Marketplace Take Rate -- Increased 90 basis points to 15.8%.
• Advertising and delivery revenue grew 73% remains a durable monetization lane, not a one-quarter outlier.
• Fintech Average Net Loan Portfolio -- Expanded 23% without obvious credit-style strain, even as management emphasizes longer-duration lending.
• adjusted EBITDA grew 9% starts closing the gap with revenue growth over time.

Signals that would weaken the case

The main invalidation signal is not slow growth by itself. It is complexity overpowering cash generation. Watch for more pressure from the cost of goods sold associated with Hepsiburada's first-party business, ongoing take rate compression in payments, or a pattern where Turkey adds volume faster than it adds durable platform economics.

Positioning takeaway

This still looks like a controlled-risk setup: a proven domestic platform with a clear expansion test now in front of investors. The recommended dividend payout ratio of 64% helps preserve income while the Turkey thesis develops. The bullish case strengthens if usage, monetization, and profitability keep moving together. It weakens if scale comes mainly from a heavier, lower-margin structure.