Joby Aviation: Pioneering the Low-Altitude Economy Amid Regulatory Momentum

The emergence of the “low-altitude economy”—a realm where electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft promise to redefine urban mobility—is being propelled by regulatory breakthroughs and technological progress. At the forefront of this revolution is Joby Aviation (JOBY.US), a company now positioned to capitalize on its recent strides toward Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification. With its eVTOL aircraft nearing commercial readiness, Joby presents a compelling, albeit high-risk, investment opportunity for those willing to bet on the future of air taxis.

Regulatory Momentum: A Critical Inflection Point

Joby's most significant near-term catalyst is its FAA certification progress. In late 2024, the company entered the final phase of its type certification process—Type Inspection Authorization (TIA)—where FAA pilots evaluated its aircraft's human factors, including cockpit ergonomics and flight performance. By May 2025, Joby reported 43% completion of Stage 4 (Testing & Analysis) from the FAA's perspective and 62% internally, marking a 12% quarterly improvement. This milestone positions the company to begin TIA flight testing with FAA pilots in 2025, a critical step toward full certification.

The completion of static load testing on the aircraft's tail structure—a first for eVTOL manufacturers—demonstrated structural integrity under extreme stress. Meanwhile, Joby's ability to conduct simultaneous flights of two pre-production aircraft in May 2025 accelerated data collection and reduced certification timelines. These advancements suggest Joby could secure FAA approval by early 2026, enabling passenger operations in key markets like Dubai, Los Angeles, and New York.

The stock's surge in early 2025 reflects optimism around regulatory progress and partnerships.

Financial Strength and Strategic Partnerships

Joby's financial position has stabilized with $812.5 million in cash as of Q1 2025, bolstered by a $250 million tranche from Toyota's $500 million investment. This funding supports manufacturing scale-up, including a doubling of its Marina, California facility and the retrofitting of an Ohio plant for parts production. Toyota's expertise in lean manufacturing has already improved final assembly efficiency by 30%, a critical win for cost management.

Strategic partnerships further de-risk the narrative:
- Dubai's hot-weather testing (mid-2025) will validate operational viability in extreme climates.
- Defense collaborations with the U.S. Air Force's Agility Prime program leverage government-funded testing, reducing Joby's costs.
- Alliances with Delta Air Lines, Virgin Atlantic, and ANA Holdings lock in demand for post-certification services in the U.S., U.K., and Japan.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have upgraded Joby to “Buy” and “Overweight”, respectively, citing its leadership in certification and operational execution.

Risks and Challenges: Valuation and Execution

Despite the optimism, valuation concerns loom large. Joby's market cap of $2.4 billion (as of June 2025) implies ambitious revenue expectations, given its尚未盈利的现状. The stock trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 15x, elevated for a pre-revenue company.

Operational risks remain:
1. Certification delays: FAA approval hinges on flawless TIA flight testing, which could uncover unforeseen issues.
2. Manufacturing scalability: Doubling production capacity while maintaining quality will test Joby's integration with Toyota.
3. Market adoption: Competing with ground transportation will require pricing power and vertiport infrastructure—still underdeveloped in most cities.
4. Competition: Startups like Archer Aviation and Wisk Aero, along with legacy players like Boeing and Airbus, could accelerate certification timelines.

Investment Thesis: A Cautious Long Position

Joby merits a cautious long position for investors with a 3–5 year horizon, provided they can tolerate volatility. Near-term catalysts include:
- FAA TIA flight testing results (Q4 2025).
- Dubai passenger trials (early 2026).
- Manufacturing milestones, such as achieving a one-aircraft-per-month production rate by late 2025.

The long-term upside is compelling: the global eVTOL market could reach $39 billion by 2035, per McKinsey, driven by urban congestion and decarbonization mandates. Joby's head start in certification and its vertically integrated model (design-to-production control) could cement its leadership.

Recommendation: Allocate 1–2% of a diversified portfolio to Joby, with a focus on long-term growth. Set a stop-loss at 20% below entry price to mitigate valuation risk.

Conclusion

Joby Aviation embodies the promise—and perils—of the low-altitude economy. Its progress toward FAA certification and strategic partnerships justify optimism, but investors must remain vigilant to execution risks and valuation pressures. For those willing to navigate these challenges, Joby offers a front-row seat to a transportation revolution.

The eVTOL race is far from over, but Joby's early strides make it a contender worth backing—cautiously.