IWG's CEO Says Commuting Dies by 2040-Is the Flexible-Office Trade Still Real?

Dixon's 2040 claim is dramatic, but the workspace shift is measurable

Mark Dixon's prediction that long commutes could disappear by 2040 is bold commuting could be extinct by 2040. For investors, though, the bigger question is not whether that prediction comes true. It is whether the move toward local, flexible work is strong enough to keep filling buildings.

That demand signal is already visible. The flexible-office market is valued at USD 46.5 billion in 2025, is expected to reach USD 54.3 billion in 2026, and could rise to about USD 221.6 billion by 2035. In practical terms, more companies are renting desks, meeting rooms, and smaller offices for short periods instead of committing to long downtown leases.

IWG remains one of the clearest public-market ways to track that change. Its shares closed at 201.20p on 3 August 2026 after a move that reflected a broader reassessment of flexible-workspace demand, not just a one-day bounce. A growing market does not guarantee IWG captures the best of it, but the basic setup is easy to understand: if work becomes more local and leases stay shorter, flexible-office operators are directly in the path of that shift.

Local workspace demand looks real enough to matter

Companies, not just employees, are driving multi-site work

The important test is not whether work can happen anywhere. It is whether businesses want that flexibility in a way keeps offices occupied.

On that front, the evidence is reasonable. IWG's 2026 C-Suite Report found that cost control is essential to CEOs, while flexible work is being used to operate more efficiently. That suggests the shift is coming from leaders managing budgets and staffing, not just from employees looking for a nicer place to sit at home.

Proximity is becoming more important than prestige

The geographic shift matters as much as the lease-model shift. Commercial real estate demand is no longer concentrated only in major city centres. As hybrid working settles in, companies are paying more attention to places closer to where employees live.

People also still want a real place to work. Employees describing their productivity as 'excellent' are 67% higher in local flexible spaces than those only working from home. That does not prove IWG will win, but it does suggest workers are trading long commutes, not abandoning professional workspace altogether.

Why that matters for IWG's network

If employees and employers both prefer local hubs over one daily downtown trip, a distributed network matters more than a single flagship office. IWG's research also says hybrid working could boost productivity by 11% and reduce quit rates by up to 20%. Those figures matter because they give companies a business reason to keep using flexible sites rather than treating them as a temporary fix.

Of course, theoretical benefits are not the same as operating results. The story becomes stronger only if these preferences show up in occupancy, renewals, and revenue.

The bull case works only if demand turns into durable usage

After a market reassessment, it is easy to overread the signal. The flexible-office market is expanding from USD 46.5 billion in 2025, and that backdrop helped support IWG shares closed at 201.20p on 3 August 2026. But a healthy market does not mean every part of the stock's run is already earned.

Cost pressure can help IWG - or hurt the whole sector

The bull case is strengthened by boardroom priorities. cost control is essential to CEOs, and flexible workspace can help firms convert fixed property costs into more variable ones. That is a helpful tailwind for short-lease models.

The risk is that cost cuts do not automatically create stable demand. Companies could still cut headcount, reduce overall workspace needs, or pull workers back into fewer centralized sites. In that scenario, occupancy might look fine while total demand stays weak.

What would confirm the thesis

For IWG, the cleanest proof points are: - better or stable occupancy and same-site revenue as flexibility replaces fixed leases - stronger usage in locations closer to where employees live, not just in prime city-center addresses - customers continuing to use flexible space as a cost tool, not abandoning it when budgets tighten

What could break it

If productivity gains let firms do more with less space, or if budget pressure leads to leaner workspace use overall, the sector can still soften even if hybrid work remains popular. IWG's mix of owned, leased and franchised or partnership locations also means execution matters: service quality, local relevance, and disciplined expansion have to hold up.

That also applies to Dixon's striking 'commuting by 2040' language. It is useful as a provocation, not as a forecast investors need to underwrite commuting could be extinct within the next 15 years. The investment case works if IWG converts flexible demand into usage, regardless of whether the headline prediction turns out exactly as stated.

What to watch in the next earnings cycle

After the recent share-price reassessment, the next reality check is operating data. Investors should look for evidence that the broader shift toward shorter lease commitments is translating into real usage, repeat demand, and healthier occupancy.

A useful read-on signal is simple: if cost control remains a priority and cost control is essential to leadership teams, the flexible-workspace story should get sturdier only when companies still choose flexible sites over thinner overall property use. If that link breaks, the narrative gets harder to back.