Infrastructure's New Frontier: How Trump's Base Could Shape the Materials and Energy Markets

The political climate in the U.S. has never been more consequential for infrastructure investors. With President Trump's second term now underway, his aggressive push to reshape the nation's infrastructure priorities—from fossil fuel dominance to regulatory rollbacks—has created a polarized yet opportunity-rich landscape. For investors, understanding how Trump voters' approval of his policies intersects with market dynamics is critical to capitalizing on this shift.

The Policy Pivot: Trump's Infrastructure Agenda

At the heart of Trump's strategy is a radical reimagining of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which he aims to streamline to accelerate fossil fuel projects, pipelines, and rural infrastructure. The administration's Permitting Technology Action Plan seeks to reduce delays by digitizing environmental reviews, while public-private partnerships (P3s) have gained bipartisan traction as a means to fund projects without increasing federal debt.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) remain contentious. While Trump's rhetoric opposes these Biden-era programs, Republican-leaning states have already secured over 75% of $268 billion in clean energy IRA investments. This creates a political dilemma: voters in these regions may resist rollbacks, but Trump's base remains broadly supportive of his fossil fuel agenda.

Polling Data: Approval of Specific Policies

Recent studies reveal a stark partisan divide in voter sentiment:

• Fossil Fuel Projects: A 2025 Pew Research poll shows 67% of Trump voters prioritize fossil fuels over renewables, up from 48% in 2020. This aligns with support for LNG exports, pipelines, and coal revival.
• NEPA Streamlining: While only 46% of the general public approve of Trump's job performance, 56% back his border security efforts—a proxy for his broader “America First” infrastructure ethos. Republicans overwhelmingly approve of regulatory rollbacks, with 87% supporting faster permitting.
• Public-Private Partnerships: A 2025 AP-NORC poll finds 62% of Republicans favor P3s for rural infrastructure, versus 50% of Democrats. This cross-party consensus suggests bipartisan tailwinds for construction and materials firms.

Investment Implications: Sectors to Watch

1. Fossil Fuel Infrastructure

The LNG boom is a key beneficiary of Trump's policies. Companies like Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), which operates pipelines and LNG terminals, have seen stock surges as regulatory hurdles ease. ETP's Lake Charles LNG project—approved under the administration's “pay-to-play” reforms—is emblematic of this trend.

2. Construction and Materials

The IIJA's $1.2 trillion allocation, even if reprioritized, ensures demand for construction materials. Firms like Cemex (CX) (cement) and Martin Marietta (MLM) (aggregates) are poised to benefit from road, bridge, and rural broadband projects. P3s could further boost demand for specialty construction firms like Quanta Services (PWR), which specializes in energy infrastructure.

3. Energy Transition Hesitation

While renewables face headwinds, bipartisan support for nuclear energy (59% approval) and energy efficiency (e.g., smart grids) offers niche opportunities. Firms like Dominion Energy (D), with its gas and renewable portfolio, may balance risks.

Risks and Considerations

• Legal and Regulatory Uncertainty: NEPA reforms face court challenges, while environmental groups may slow fossil fuel projects.
• Political Volatility: The 2026 elections could shift power if inflation worsens or public trust in Trump declines (currently 17% “completely trust”).
• Global Supply Chains: Tariffs on aluminum and steel, as proposed in Trump's reconciliation bill, could raise costs for construction firms.

Investment Strategy: Pragmatic Opportunism

For investors, the playbook is clear:

1. Focus on Fossil Fuel Infrastructure: Allocate to firms benefiting from LNG, pipelines, and P3 projects (e.g., ETP, PWR).
2. Hedging with Materials: Use broad exposure via ETFs like XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund) to capture IIJA-driven demand.
3. Avoid Overexposure to Renewables: Until bipartisan consensus emerges on clean energy, prioritize firms with diversified energy portfolios.

Conclusion: Riding the Policy Wave

Trump's infrastructure agenda is not just about politics—it's a market catalyst. While risks lurk in regulatory battles and electoral shifts, the base's approval of his policies ensures sustained momentum for fossil fuels and traditional construction. For investors, the key is to align with the sectors where voter sentiment and policy action intersect: materials, energy infrastructure, and P3-driven projects. The next phase of U.S. infrastructure is here—and it's not going quietly.