Helix Exploration: Rudyard's Helium Dawn and the Case for a 100% Upside

The global helium market, a $7 billion industry dominated by a handful of producers, is on the cusp of a seismic shift. Helix Exploration (LSE: HEX), a UK-based pioneer in helium exploration, is set to become Montana's first commercial helium producer through its Rudyard Plant—a project advancing toward completion with unprecedented speed and cost discipline. With equipment delivery slated for August 2025 and first production expected by early 2026, investors are overlooking a rare opportunity to capture a multi-bagger gain. Here's why.

The Rudyard Catalyst: A Low-Cost, High-Impact Project

Helix's Rudyard Project, located in Montana's helium-rich Fairway Basin, has advanced rapidly. The company recently secured a critical milestone: a $40 million contract with a European engineering firm for equipment delivery by August 2025. This marks the final major hurdle before construction enters its final phase. Unlike traditional oil-and-gas projects, Rudyard's development relies on modular, pre-assembled units, slashing construction timelines and costs.

At full capacity, Rudyard is projected to produce 2.2 billion cubic feet of helium annually, with operating costs as low as $0.25 per cubic foot—among the cheapest in the world. With current spot prices for helium averaging $1.50–$2.00 per cubic foot, the project's gross margins could exceed 85%. Analysts estimate net revenue potential of $115–220 million over the plant's first five years, depending on price stability and production ramp-up.

Valuation: A Stock Trading at a Fraction of Its Potential
Helix's current market cap of £48.4 million (as of July 2025) starkly contrasts with its upside. Even at the lower end of its revenue range ($115 million over five years), the project's net present value (assuming a 10% discount rate) would exceed £150 million—a tripling of Helix's current valuation. Yet the stock trades at just 26.30p per share, with a price-to-estimated 2026 earnings multiple of 8x—deeply undervalued compared to peers like Air Liquide (18x) and Linde (22x).

The stock's recent surge—up 282% since April 2024—hints at investor recognition of its potential. But with key catalysts (FID and first production) still ahead, this is likely just the beginning.

Near-Term Catalysts: FID and First Production
1. Final Investment Decision (FID) by Q4 2025: Helix plans to secure FID for Rudyard by year-end, contingent on final engineering approvals. This will eliminate project uncertainty and unlock equity financing, likely boosting the share price.
2. First Production in Q1 2026: Initial output will validate the project's economics and trigger a re-rating of the stock.

Risks, but Limited Downside
- Helium price volatility: Rising global supply from Qatar's Ras Laffan plant could pressure prices. However, Helix's low-cost model offers resilience.
- Regulatory delays: Montana's permitting process has been swift thus far, but delays remain a risk.

Investment Thesis: Act Before the Catalysts Hit
Helix is a classic “value-to-growth” story. Its Rudyard project is a high-margin, low-risk asset in a sector with structural supply shortages. With a robust balance sheet ($370 million in cash) and no debt, the company is financially insulated.

The shares could easily double if FID is confirmed and first production meets expectations. A conservative target price of 50p (92% upside) assumes a 12x multiple on 2026 earnings, while a bullish scenario (15x multiple) could push it to 65p.

Conclusion
Helix Exploration's Rudyard Plant represents a once-in-a-decade opportunity to invest in a project with outsized upside. With catalysts imminent and valuation metrics screaming “buy,” this is a stock that could make headlines in 2026. Investors should act now—before the market catches up to the helium dawn.

Final recommendation: Buy at current levels, target 50–65p by end-2026.