Fossil First: How Trump's Megabill Resets the Energy and Education Investment Playbook

The sweeping “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” has landed, and with it, a seismic shift in federal priorities. For investors, the legislation's tilt toward fossil fuels, penalties on renewables, and overhauls to student loans are not just policy moves—they're market-moving directives. Here's how to parse the winners, losers, and what to do next.

Energy Sector: Fossil Fuel's Renaissance, Renewables' Retreat

The bill's energy provisions mark a stark reversal of the green momentum of recent years. Traditional energy companies—particularly coal, oil, and gas—stand to gain, while renewables face headwinds.

Winners:
- Coal & Oil Giants: The rollback of IRA-era coal royalty hikes (down to 7% through 2034) and expanded federal leasing in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico are direct windfalls. Companies like Peabody Energy (BTU) and Devon Energy (DVN) could see surging demand for coal and onshore drilling.
- Offshore Operators: The mandated 30 offshore Gulf lease sales by 2040 favor firms like Chevron (CVX) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY), which have deep Gulf portfolios.

Losers:
- Renewables & EVs: The bill's tax penalties on wind/solar projects using Chinese equipment (starting 2027) and the axing of clean vehicle tax credits could stall growth. Tesla (TSLA) and NextEra Energy (NEE)—long darlings of the green economy—now face higher input costs and regulatory uncertainty.
- Critical Minerals Plays: The focus on “energy dominance” via nuclear and critical minerals (e.g., lithium, cobalt) may benefit miners like Lithium Americas (LAC), but the bill's broader anti-renewables stance complicates their value proposition.

Education & Student Loans: A Tightening Vise

The bill's education reforms target affordability but risk stifling access, especially for graduate and low-income students.

Winners:
- Private Education Networks: Tax-exempt employer-paid student loan assistance and expanded 529 plans could boost demand for affordable private institutions. For-profit colleges like Strayer Education (STRY) or Ashford University (if still public) might benefit, though reputational risks linger.

Losers:
- Graduate Programs: The elimination of Graduate PLUS loans and borrowing caps for grad students could depress enrollment, hurting schools reliant on tuition. Public universities with robust grad programs (e.g., Ohio State, University of Michigan) may see enrollment declines.
- Student Loan Servicers: Stricter hardship payment rules and the end of Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) plans could reduce servicer volume. Companies like Black Knight (BKI) and Moody's Analytics (MCO) might see fewer processing fees.

Investment Playbook: Go Fossil, Avoid Education

1. Fossil Fuel Stocks: Buy into coal and oil majors with federal lease exposure. Consider ETFs like XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) for diversified exposure.
2. Short Renewables: Sell off positions in wind/solar companies (e.g., NextEra, Pattern Energy) and avoid EV stocks until China equipment penalties are clarified.
3. Education Sector: Avoid ETFs like EDUC. Focus on institutions with diversified revenue streams (e.g., endowments, research grants) rather than tuition-dependent schools.

Risks to Watch:
- China Trade Dynamics: The wind/solar tax on Chinese equipment could backfire if it spurs Beijing to retaliate or U.S. firms shift production overseas.
- Climate Pushback: State and municipal policies may still favor renewables, creating a patchwork of regulations.
- House Negotiations: The bill's final form could dilute energy provisions, so stay agile as details emerge.

Conclusion: A Policy Pivot with Long-Term Consequences

This bill isn't just a policy reset—it's a market realignment. Traditional energy stocks are primed to thrive in the near term, but investors must weigh the long game: climate goals and global competitiveness remain unresolved. In education, the road ahead is narrower, with fewer students and tighter financing. For now, bet on black gold and steer clear of the chalkboard.