Fortifying Portfolios in a Trade-War World: Three ETFs to Weather Retail Slowdown and Tariff Uncertainty

The U.S. retail sales slowdown—driven by tariff-induced inflation and consumer caution—has investors scrambling for defensive plays. Amid this turbulence, three ETFs emerge as pillars of resilience: food services (EATZ), infrastructure (TOLZ), and semiconductors (SMH). These sectors are insulated from trade volatility while capitalizing on structural demand. Here’s how to deploy them now.

1. Food Services (EATZ): Dining’s Defensive Edge
While retail sales slumped 0.1% in April, restaurants and bars surged 1.2%—a stark example of consumer pivots toward discretionary essentials.

. EATZ tracks companies like McDonald’s and Starbucks, benefiting from inelastic demand: people spend less on goods but still eat out. With wage growth and post-pandemic social recovery boosting dining, this ETF is a hedge against discretionary declines.

EATZ has outperformed retail stocks by 12% YTD, reflecting its defensive profile.

2. Infrastructure (TOLZ): Essential Demand Meets Policy Tailwinds
The home and garden sector’s 0.8% April sales jump—its best since 2022—signals a shift from home purchases to renovations. TOLZ targets companies involved in construction, utilities, and public projects, which are shielded from trade wars. Infrastructure spending is a bipartisan priority, with the U.S.亟需 modernizing bridges, grids, and transit systems.

Every $1 billion in infrastructure spending supports ~10,000 jobs, amplifying TOLZ’s growth drivers.

3. Semiconductors (SMH): Tech’s Unshakable Need
Despite tariff chaos, semiconductors remain the backbone of everything from AI to autos. SMH holds Intel, AMD, and Taiwan Semiconductor, which benefit from secular trends like 5G rollout and AI adoption. Even amid trade wars, chip demand is too critical to stall—automakers, for instance, cannot halt production without microchips.

SMH tracks semiconductor sales with 85% accuracy, proving its reliability as a tech proxy.

Risk Mitigation & Immediate Action
These sectors thrive in uncertainty:
- EATZ: Low sensitivity to trade wars; benefits from consumer spending shifts.
- TOLZ: Government-backed demand buffers against economic cycles.
- SMH: Tech’s indispensability mitigates tariff risks.

The 90-day tariff truce with China offers a tactical window to deploy capital. Allocate 10–15% of equity exposure to these ETFs now to capitalize on their growth drivers while hedging against retail malaise.

Act Now—Trade Volatility Can’t Stop These Plays
The retail slowdown and tariff gridlock won’t resolve soon. Investors who pivot to EATZ, TOLZ, and SMH will position themselves to outperform in 2025’s choppy markets. Time is of the essence—these ETFs are already rising above the noise.