Excelerate Keeps a $500M EBITDA Target-But Iraq's Push to 2027 Turns This Into a Cash-Flow Test

Excelerate's 2026 EBITDA case still stands, but the payoff is now later

Excelerate's core bull case still looks intact. The company is still guiding to roughly $515 million of 2026 adjusted EBITDA, and management has also pointed to about $20 million in adjusted EBITDA this year from the Jordan move as a partial offset to the Iraq delay. That keeps the story alive, but the timing hit is real.

What changed

Management says the Iraq delay costs about $1 million a month while the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists. That is not a cancellation. It is a delay in when earnings from the project show up, and in this kind of story, timing can matter almost as much as the underlying thesis.

The Jordan assignment helps, but it does not erase the delay. Acadia's new role in Aqaba is useful bridge capacity, not a full substitute for the missed timeline in Iraq.

Acadia's Jordan move looks like an operating fix, not a accounting workaround

The Iraq timing slipped, but the Acadia-to-Jordan deal still looks like a practical way to keep a new asset working while Excelerate waits on Iraq.

Why the Jordan move matters

Excelerate moved the FSRU Excelerate Acadia to Jordan under a nine-month time charter party agreement with Jordan's National Electric Power Company. The unit was named at Hyundai Heavy Industries and is expected to begin operations in mid-2026 in Aqaba. That makes the move easier to underwrite: the asset has a real customer, a defined terminal, and a near-term operating path.

Management expects the Jordan move to add about $20 million in adjusted EBITDA this year. That is not enough to fully replace the lost time from Iraq, but it is meaningful enough to matter.

The rest of the business still looks stable

In Q2, Excelerate produced $329.3 million of revenue and $120.1 million of adjusted EBITDA. That followed $122.2 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was slightly lower because of seasonal LNG, gas and power effects, but the sequential decline was small, which supports the view that the operating base is still holding up.

That background matters because the Jordan bridge is only helpful if the rest of the fleet remains dependable. So far, the evidence still points to a business that is dealing with a schedule delay rather than a deeper operating problem.

The real question is timing risk, not whether the asset base still works

The delay pushed Iraq into 2027 and brought force majeure-related disruptions into the discussion, but it did not clearly break the broader story. Excelerate still looks like a company with valuable assets and a timing problem.

How to frame the stock now

Management is still standing by a roughly $515 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook, and it has said the Iraq project fundamentals remain unchanged. That does not remove the delay risk, but it does support a more measured way to view the shares:

• Base case: the existing fleet continues to produce roughly $120 million-plus quarters and Jordan starts on schedule, giving Excelerate enough near-term support to bridge the Iraq delay.
• Risk case: the delay pushes deeper into 2027, broader regional disruptions spread beyond Iraq, or the rest of the business weakens enough to put the full-year target at risk.

What investors should watch next

The next few quarters should clarify whether this is mainly a timing reset or the start of a wider pressure point:

• Whether quarterly adjusted EBITDA stays near the recent $120 million level.
• Whether Acadia actually begins operations in Aqaba around the expected mid-2026 window.
• Whether management can keep Iraq framed as a delay rather than let it start to look more structurally impaired.

For now, the cleanest read is that Excelerate still has a credible 2026 earnings target, but investors have lost some time value. That makes this less about a shattered growth story and more about whether the company can hold the base business steady while the delayed Iraq cash flows move further out.