The Cocoa Rush: Nigeria's Farmland Goldmine in a Global Supply Crunch

The cocoa markets of Nigeria are experiencing a historic boom, driven by soaring global prices and a surge in farmland investments. Once a secondary crop, cocoa has become a symbol of economic transformation, with smallholder farmers and agribusinesses alike racing to capitalize on a perfect storm of supply shortages, rising demand, and ambitious government targets. This article explores the forces behind Nigeria’s cocoa revolution and the risks and rewards for investors.

Price Surge Sparks an Investment Gold Rush

Global cocoa prices have skyrocketed since 2023, reaching a record $12,000 per ton in December 2024 before settling at over $8,000 in early 2025. This surge, fueled by climate-related crop failures in Ivory Coast and Ghana—the world’s top producers—and geopolitical tensions, has turned Nigerian farmland into a sought-after asset.

The Nigerian government’s goal of producing 500,000 tons of cocoa by 2025 (up from 280,000 tons in 2023) has galvanized private-sector action. Over a dozen local firms, including Johnvents Group, a leading agribusiness, have expanded operations. In February 2025, British International Investment (BII) committed $40.5 million to Johnvents to modernize processing and support over 300,000 smallholder farmers.

The "Cocoa Boys" and Their Challenges

The term “cocoa boys”—a nod to Nigeria’s “yam boys” crypto traders—reflects the speculative fervor surrounding farmland investments. However, the reality is more complex. Small-scale farmers, who produce 90% of Nigeria’s cocoa, face steep barriers: land access, capital constraints, and aging plantations.

“Land is the major instrument farmers need… and the money to develop it,” says Peter Okunde, a cocoa farmer in Ogun state. John Alamu of Johnvents counters that Nigeria already has 1.4 million hectares of cocoa land—surpassing Ghana—but stresses the need for systemic support, including seedling access and sustainable farming training.

Environmental Crossroads: Profit vs. Sustainability

The rush to expand cocoa production has environmental trade-offs. The Nigerian government’s push for “full-sun” monocrop plantations—dense cocoa plantations without shade trees—risks biodiversity loss and soil degradation. A 2024 study in Agroforestry Systems warns that such practices, while boosting yields, erode long-term environmental resilience compared to traditional agroforestry methods.

Global Context: Nigeria’s Moment in the Cocoa Sun

Nigeria’s cocoa boom is a beneficiary of global supply chain fragility. Climate disasters in Ivory Coast (e.g., floods in 2023) and Ghana’s struggles with pests have created a vacuum. Nigeria’s relatively stable climate and underutilized land have positioned it to fill this gap.

Meanwhile, demand remains robust, even as global chocolate giants like Hershey report sales declines. The $130 billion global chocolate market offers opportunities for value-added processing—a sector Nigeria has yet to exploit. Currently, 90% of Nigerian cocoa is exported as raw beans, ceding profits to foreign processors.

The Economic Impact: Cocoa as Nigeria’s New Oil?

Cocoa is already reshaping Nigeria’s economy. In 2024, agriculture contributed 25.59% to GDP—surpassing oil’s 5% contribution—while cocoa alone accounted for 7.12% of agricultural exports. Projections suggest cocoa could overtake oil as a revenue source within a decade if processing capacity expands.

Risks on the Horizon

Despite the optimism, risks loom large. A bumper harvest in Ivory Coast or Ghana could flood global markets, driving prices down. Nigeria’s reliance on raw bean exports leaves it vulnerable to price swings. Additionally, land disputes and poor infrastructure—such as roads and storage facilities—threaten scalability.

Conclusion: A Golden Opportunity, but with Silver Linings

Nigeria’s cocoa boom is a story of potential and peril. The sector’s 700% price surge since 2023 has attracted billions in investment, with firms like Johnvents leading the charge. Yet, to sustain this momentum, Nigeria must address systemic challenges: upgrading processing capacity, ensuring sustainable farming practices, and supporting smallholders.

The stakes are high. If Nigeria can modernize its cocoa sector while preserving environmental balance, it could become a global leader, capturing a larger share of the $61 billion cocoa market by 2027. For investors, the calculus is clear: cocoa offers outsized returns, but only for those willing to navigate its complexities.

As Dominic Joshua of Cultivate Africa notes, “Cocoa could be Nigeria’s next oil—but only if we process it ourselves.” The next chapter of this story hinges on whether Nigeria can turn its farmland gold into lasting economic gold.