China's Footwear Pressures Are Real - But Anta's 13% Rise Shows the Story Is More Nuanced Than the Export Data

China's export surge does not automatically mean footwear demand has recovered

China's trade data look strong, but the breakdown suggests selectivity rather than a broad-based recovery. In June, overall exports rose 27%, the fastest pace since late 2021. Earlier this year, however, footwear was among the first-half export laggards. That does not point to a uniform rebound in exporter health. It suggests that some parts of trade benefited more from timing and category mix than from a universal uptick in demand.

Why the trade headline can overstate consumer strength

The June surge came amid a rush by exporters to beat anticipated U.S. tariff hikes, with shipments and freight activity jumping as companies pulled demand forward. That can make trade look healthier than underlying orders. For consumer-linked categories, the more durable signal is what brands are actually selling, not just what gets shipped in a rushed window.

Brand-level results still matter more than the headline

Anta's 2025 results still point to real underlying demand in sportswear. The company grew revenue 13.3% year over year to RMB80.22 billion and strengthened its position as the industry leader in China's sportswear market. That is not the picture of a broken domestic-demand story. It is evidence that stronger brands can keep growing even when the macro backdrop remains uneven.

Anta's portfolio execution still looks cleaner than Li Ning's

On a relative basis, Anta still appears to be the stronger consumer operator. That does not mean Li Ning is broken. It means Anta's leadership is showing up more clearly in market share, brand mix, and retail control.

Anta's market share and brand mix support the leadership case

Anta now holds approximately 21.8% market share in China's sportswear market. More importantly, its portfolio is still growing across categories. The core ANTA brand increased revenue 3.7%, FILA grew 6.9%, and all other brands rose 59.2%. That suggests broad-based strength rather than growth driven by a single brand or one-off promotion.

Anta also follows a brand + retail model, which gives it more direct control over pricing, merchandise mix, and in-store execution than a company relying more heavily on wholesale channels.

Li Ning's cost control helped, but the demand signal is less clear

Li Ning's full-year results were less reassuring on the demand front. Revenue reached RMB 29,598 million, but net profit attributable to equity holders fell 2.6%. The company also cut its directly operated store base to 1,238 locations from 1,297, and that reduction helped lower rent, payroll, and depreciation. That can support margins, but it is not the same as a clear consumer uptick.

The basic question remains: is the business improving because demand is strengthening, or because costs have been pulled down?

The competitive gap is still meaningful

Li Ning still competes on brand trust, product edge, and price in a market where it faces pressure from Anta, Nike, Adidas, and lower-cost domestic rivals. That makes the bar higher. Anta's multi-brand spread and operational scale give it more room to absorb a messy demand environment.

What would improve the case for Li Ning, and why Anta still looks safer

My base preference remains the stronger operator with broader reach and better retail control. In June, overall exports rose 27%, but footwear remained one of the weaker export categories in the first half. That mixed picture argues for caution on headline recovery stories.

What would confirm stronger demand

• A broader set of sportswear operators starts posting healthier retail trends, not just isolated cost cuts.
• Li Ning expands or stabilizes its direct footprint while also improving product demand and profitability.

Why the current preference still leans Anta

Anta's resilient growth is backed by evidence that shoppers are still buying across its portfolio. Li Ning still needs to show that its 2025 results reflected more than efficient cost management. Until that ground-level evidence improves, Anta looks like the cleaner way to express the China sportswear story.