China's Export Growth Accelerates Amid Trade Risks, Imports Surprise

China's export growth has accelerated in recent months, defying expectations and demonstrating the country's resilience in the face of mounting trade risks. According to the General Administration of Customs, China's exports rose by 4.9 percent year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, outpacing the 2.7 percent increase in the first half of the year and significantly higher than the 0.7 percent growth in 2023. This unexpected growth has been driven by several factors, including the dissipation of short-term disruptions, a lower year-on-year comparison base, strong growth in new export drivers, and resilience in external demand.



One of the key factors contributing to the acceleration of China's export growth is the dissipation of short-term disruptions. In the first half of 2024, China's exports were affected by extreme weather, global shipping disruptions, and anticipated strikes by dockworkers on the U.S. East Coast. These disruptions have lessened to varying degrees in the second half of the year, allowing exports to rebound and grow at a faster pace.

Another factor contributing to the acceleration of China's export growth is the lower year-on-year comparison base. In October of last year, exports fell by 7.5 percent, which is notably lower than the average decline of 3.9 percent over the past decade. This lower comparison base has allowed exports to grow at a faster pace in the first four months of 2024.

Strong growth in new export drivers has also contributed to the acceleration of China's export growth. Preliminary data from the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) indicates that cross-border e-commerce exports grew by 15.2 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters, outpacing the overall export growth by 9 percentage points. The trading environment in October showed no significant changes, suggesting that cross-border e-commerce will continue to experience high growth, contributing to the acceleration of export growth.

Resilience in external demand has also played a significant role in driving China's export growth. Current external demand remains somewhat resilient, supported by strong trends in the U.S. economy. This resilience in external demand has contributed to the acceleration of China's export growth in the first four months of 2024.



In addition to the acceleration of export growth, China's imports have also surprised analysts by growing at a faster pace than expected. According to the General Administration of Customs, China's imports increased by 3.2 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024, reaching 15.22 trillion RMB (US$2.09 trillion). This growth rate was higher than the 2.7 percent increase in the first half of the year and significantly higher than the 0.7 percent growth in 2023.

Several factors have contributed to this unexpected growth in imports. Domestic demand has been a significant driver, with steady growth in the consumer market leading to increased imports of specialty fruits, wine, and clothing. Imports of these products increased by 7.1 percent, 28.9 percent, and 6.1 percent, respectively, effectively meeting diverse domestic consumer demands.

Industrial production has also contributed to the growth in imports. China's industrial production has grown steadily since the start of this year, leading to increased imports of raw materials such as coal (11.9%), natural gas (13%), and iron ore (4.9%). Additionally, the cyclical upturn in consumer electronics has resulted in double-digit growth in imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, integrated circuits, and flat-panel display modules.

China's new energy industry has effectively aligned with global green development trends, with exports of wind turbine generator systems and electric vehicles rising by 73.9 percent and 22 percent, respectively. This focus on green transformation has also contributed to increased imports of related materials and equipment.

Policy support has also played a significant role in driving the growth of China's imports. The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the real economy and business entities, including strengthening financial and fiscal support, promoting equipment renewals, and stimulating consumption. These policies have contributed to the overall growth in imports.



In conclusion, China's export growth has accelerated in recent months, driven by the dissipation of short-term disruptions, a lower year-on-year comparison base, strong growth in new export drivers, and resilience in external demand. Additionally, China's imports have surprised analysts by growing at a faster pace than expected, driven by domestic demand, industrial production, green transformation, and policy support. Despite mounting trade risks, China's export and import growth demonstrates the country's resilience and adaptability in the face of global economic challenges.