China's Central Asia Gambit: A New Silk Road or Geopolitical Chess?

The intensifying trade tensions between the United States and China have pushed Beijing to deepen its ties with Central Asia, a region historically within Russia's sphere of influence. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, is the cornerstone of this strategy, aiming to integrate Central Asia into China's economic and political orbit. This initiative, which began as an economic project, has evolved into a grand geopolitical strategy, as evidenced by its incorporation into the Constitution of the Chinese Communist Party in 2017. The BRI's focus on the "Silk Road Economic Belt" (SREB) to the west underscores China's strategic interest in Central Asia, a region rich in natural resources and geopolitical significance.

The BRI has already had a profound impact on Central Asia's economic landscape. Over the last two years, there has been a sizeable increase in publicly and privately financed investment in transport, logistics, and export-oriented manufacturing capacities. For instance, Kazakhstan's economy expanded primarily on the strength of consumer demand and public spending, partially financed by elevated transfers from the National Fund. This trend continued in the first quarter of 2024, as GDP growth was supported by an expansion in non-oil sectors, such as construction, communication, transport, and warehousing. The BRI has also facilitated a surge in international arrivals and tourism, further fueling a consumption boom. Intra-regional trade, investment, and tourism have continued to rise, assisted by much-improved regional cooperation on common challenges ranging from water and energy shortages to transport and border management bottlenecks.



However, the BRI's success is not without challenges. The division of labor with Russia, which deems Central Asia to be a critical part of its sphere of influence, and the autonomous foreign policy aspirations of newly sovereign states wary of overdependence on one state, whose long-term intentions may be threatening, are significant concerns. Additionally, the BRI's success depends on fine-tuning a strategy in stages that suits China’s objectives without alarming others, which requires careful management of regional dynamics and geopolitical sensitivities.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has provided China with an opportunity to expand its influence in Central Asia. As Russia is caught up in a grinding war with Ukraine and subject to international sanctions, China has seized the opportunity to expand its influence in the region. This is evident in the increased investment in transport, logistics, and export-oriented manufacturing capacities in Central Asia, as well as the surge in international arrivals and tourism, which have fueled a consumption boom in the region.

The potential geopolitical implications of China's increased influence in Central Asia are profound. Firstly, China's BRI has evolved over the past decade, with a significant focus on the "Silk Road Economic Belt" (SREB) to the west, which includes Central Asia. This initiative began and continues to depend heavily on the SREB, indicating China's strategic interest in the region. The BRI is not just an economic initiative but a state-guided political strategy, as indicated by its incorporation into the Constitution of the Chinese Communist Party in 2017. This suggests that China's involvement in Central Asia is part of a broader geopolitical strategy to expand its influence and integrate the region into its economic and political orbit.

Secondly, China's increased influence in Central Asia could potentially challenge Russia's traditional sphere of influence in the region. Russia has historically viewed Central Asia as a critical part of its sphere of influence, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has further complicated its geopolitical dynamics. China's autonomous moves in Central Asia, such as the groundwork laid for Chinese-Central Asian meetings without Russia, indicate a strategic effort to expand its presence in the region. This could lead to a division of labor between China and Russia, with each seeking to manage their interests in the region while avoiding direct confrontation.

Thirdly, the autonomous foreign policy aspirations of newly sovereign states in Central Asia could also impact China's influence in the region. These states are wary of overdependence on one state, whose long-term intentions may be threatening. This could lead to a balancing act for China, as it seeks to fine-tune its strategy in stages that suit its objectives without alarming others. For example, China's approach to Central Asia has been characterized by peaceful, good-neighborly relations, mutual benefit, non-interference, and respect for sovereignty, similar to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence in China-Southeast Asian relations.

In conclusion, China's increased influence in Central Asia has several potential geopolitical implications, including the challenge to Russia's traditional sphere of influence, the autonomous foreign policy aspirations of newly sovereign states, and the opportunity provided by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These factors suggest that China's involvement in Central Asia is part of a broader geopolitical strategy to expand its influence and integrate the region into its economic and political orbit. The world must choose: cooperation or collapse.