China's Anti-Dumping Review on Optical Fiber and Its Impact on Global Telecommunications Supply Chains

The global telecommunications sector stands at a crossroads, with China’s recent anti-dumping review on Indian single-mode optical fibers underscoring the fragility of supply chains and the strategic use of trade policies. As governments worldwide grapple with balancing industrial protection and global integration, investors in the optical fiber manufacturing sector must navigate a landscape shaped by geopolitical tensions, raw material dependencies, and cyclical trade remedies. This analysis evaluates the risks and opportunities for investors, drawing on recent developments and historical precedents.

The Context of China’s Anti-Dumping Review

China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) has initiated an expiry review of anti-dumping duties on Indian single-mode optical fibers, imposed in 2014 and extended in 2020 [1]. The review, spanning dumping investigations from April 2024 to March 2025 and injury assessments from January 2021 to March 2025, aims to determine whether terminating these duties would revive dumping and harm China’s domestic industry [1]. Current tariffs range from 7.4% to 30.6%, and they remain in place during the review [2]. This move reflects a broader pattern: China has repeatedly extended anti-dumping measures on optical fiber preforms from the U.S. and Japan, citing the need to shield its nascent industry from “unfair competition” [3].

Market Dynamics and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

The optical fiber market is expanding rapidly, driven by 5G infrastructure, smart cities, and cloud computing. China’s market, valued at USD 950.9 million in 2023, is projected to grow at a 7.6% CAGR to USD 1.59 billion by 2030 [4]. India’s market, at USD 553.5 million in 2025, is expected to surge at an 11.03% CAGR to USD 1.04 billion by 2031 [5]. However, supply chain vulnerabilities loom large. China’s control over over 60% of global Germanium Tetrachloride (GeCl₄) production—critical for fiber manufacturing—has created bottlenecks for Indian firms. Export restrictions since 2023 have doubled GeCl₄ prices and disrupted projects like BharatNet [6]. This highlights a systemic risk: over-reliance on a single supplier for critical inputs.

Investment Risks: Trade Policies and Supply Chain Shocks

Anti-dumping measures are not merely regulatory hurdles; they are tools of industrial policy. China’s extension of duties on U.S. and Japanese preforms until 2029, with rates between 14.4% and 41.7%, illustrates how trade barriers can stifle foreign competition and consolidate domestic market share [3]. Similarly, the EU’s doubling of anti-dumping duties on Chinese optical cables to 39.4%–88% in 2023 underscores the reciprocal nature of these measures [7]. For investors, such policies create uncertainty. A sudden termination of duties could flood markets with cheaper imports, eroding margins for domestic producers. Conversely, prolonged protections may distort competition and stifle innovation.

Supply chain disruptions further amplify risks. Chinese manufacturers like Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Co. (YOFC) and China Chengtong Group dominate production, with YOFC reporting a 6.06% profit margin in 2024 despite a 22% profit decline in H1 2025 [8]. Indian firms, meanwhile, face dual pressures: rising raw material costs and potential retaliatory measures if China’s review concludes that Indian exports pose a threat.

Opportunities: Innovation and Diversification

Despite these challenges, the sector offers compelling opportunities. The global fiber optics market, valued at USD 8.22 billion in 2024, is forecast to grow at a 10.3% CAGR to USD 17.84 billion by 2032 [9]. This growth is fueled by 5G rollouts, data center expansion, and gigabit broadband adoption. Chinese firms, with their R&D investments and scale, are well-positioned to capitalize. YOFC’s development of X-Band optical fibers for 5G and F5G applications exemplifies this innovation [10].

For India, the crisis in GeCl₄ supply may spur diversification. Efforts to source from Germany, the U.S., and Kazakhstan could reduce dependency on China, aligning with broader “Make in India” goals [6]. Similarly, the EU’s stringent anti-dumping measures may incentivize European firms to invest in domestic production, creating new markets for suppliers in North America and Asia.

Historical Precedents and Predictive Insights

Past anti-dumping reviews offer insights into potential outcomes. China’s 2015 duties on U.S. and Japanese preforms were extended in 2020 and 2024, with rates adjusted to reflect “fragility” in its domestic industry [3]. The EU’s 2023 hike on Chinese cables followed a pattern of escalating duties in response to falling export prices [7]. These cases suggest that trade remedies are often extended or intensified, particularly when domestic industries lobby aggressively. For the current Indian review, a likely outcome is the continuation of duties, given the strong representation of Chinese applicants and the industry’s strategic importance.

Strategic Recommendations for Investors

1. Diversify Supply Chains: Investors should prioritize firms with diversified sourcing strategies, particularly those mitigating GeCl₄ dependencies. Indian companies exploring alternative suppliers or vertical integration could offer resilience.
2. Monitor Trade Policy Cycles: Given the cyclical nature of anti-dumping reviews, investors must track policy timelines and lobbying activities. Chinese and EU firms with strong political ties may benefit from extended protections.
3. Focus on Innovation: Companies investing in next-generation technologies—such as YOFC’s X-Band fibers—will outperform peers in a demand-driven market.
4. Hedge Against Currency and Tariff Risks: Currency fluctuations and sudden tariff adjustments can erode margins. Hedging strategies and flexible pricing models are essential.

Conclusion

China’s anti-dumping review on Indian optical fibers is a microcosm of broader tensions in global telecommunications supply chains. While trade policies and supply chain vulnerabilities pose risks, the sector’s growth trajectory remains robust. Investors who navigate these challenges with a focus on diversification, innovation, and policy agility will be well-positioned to capitalize on the opportunities ahead.

Source:
[1] China to launch expiry review of anti-dumping duties on ... [https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202508/1340780.shtml]
[2] China to continue anti-dumping tariff on Indian fibre optic ... [https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/china-to-continue-anti-dumping-tariff-on-indian-fibre-optic-products-125081301199_1.html]
[3] China Extends Anti-Dumping Duties on US, Japanese Optical Fiber Preforms for Another Five Years [https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-extends-anti-dumping-duties-on-us-japanese-optical-fiber-preforms-for-another-five-years]
[4] China Fiber Optics Market Size & Outlook, 2023-2030 [https://www.grandviewresearch.com/horizon/outlook/fiber-optics-market/china]
[5] India Optical Fiber Cables Market Size and Outlook 2031 [https://www.techsciresearch.com/report/india-optical-fiber-cables-market/2091.html]
[6] How China is disrupting India's optical fibre supply chain [https://government.economictimes.indiatimes.com/blog/chinas-germanium-export-restrictions-a-major-setback-for-indias-optical-fibre-industry/123216212]
[7] EU tightens anti-dumping measures on optical fibre cables ... [https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-tightens-anti-dumping-measures-optical-fibre-cables-china-defend-significant-eu-industry-2023-08-09_en]
[8] Yangtze Optical Fibre's H1 Profit Declines 22% [https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/57653497/yangtze-optical-fibre-s-h1-profit-declines-22]
[9] Fiber Optics Market Size, Share, Growth | Forecast [2032] [https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/fiber-optics-market-102904]
[10] Asia Pacific Optical Fibers Industry Report 2025 [https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/regional-analysis/asia-pacific-optical-fibers-market-report]