Boeing's Upgrade Makes Sense: If MAX 10 Clears Cert, a Big Sales Block Gets Unlocked

BNP Paribas is betting the hardest MAX certification roadblock is finally easing

Boeing's upgrade looks less like a declaration that every problem is solved and more like a bet that the toughest certification bottleneck is finally loosening. That is a more investable setup than it may appear. The market has already begun rewarding signs that operations are stabilizing: Boeing delivered 143 planes in the first quarter, and that kind of execution tends to matter when a stock has spent years priced for bad news.

The bigger catalyst, though, is the 737 MAX 10. Boeing has over 1,500 MAX 10 orders, and if final certification arrives in the September or October window, a major sales blocker could finally start to come undone.

What has to happen for the upgrade case to work

The bull case is straightforward: a real constraint may be removing itself. FAA work is still underway, but certification as early as September or October is now a live calendar event rather than a distant hope. Boeing also says the path forward has become clearer, with certification deliverables 95% complete on the smaller MAX 7.

The bear case is also reasonable. Boeing's history with delays means progress still is not the same as completion, and the schedule could slip if unexpected issues arise. Even so, the core investment point is narrow: if the MAX 10 clears certification, a large block of orders that has been stuck in place moves back into the revenue conversation.

MAX 10 flight testing is done, which shrinks the remaining unknowns

The flight campaign is no longer the main open question

The MAX 10 has now completed its final planned certification flight test, closing out a campaign that logged 976 flights, more than 2,060 flight hours, and about 1,040 ground test hours. Boeing says the program validated the full spectrum of certification requirements, including landing gear, brake performance on wet runways, maximum-energy stops, engine anti-ice, and the enhanced Angle of Attack system.

That matters because this was not a symbolic flyaround. With the flight-test scope completed, the remaining work is primarily closeouts and regulatory review. In practical terms, the biggest technical unknowns are getting smaller.

Why visibility matters more than another broad promise

Boeing's language has become more concrete. Management said certification deliverables are 95% complete on the MAX 7 and emphasized that the path forward is now clearer than it was two years ago. For a program that has suffered from repeated schedule slippage, that shift in visibility is the part investors should focus on.

When an aerospace program has a record of delays, investors do not rerate a stock on vague optimism. They rerate it when promises turn into a visible checklist. Boeing has said certainty matters more than flow, and that is exactly why this update matters: it lets customers, suppliers, and investors see what is left to do.

What remains before 2026 approval and 2027 delivery growth

The main remaining work for the MAX 10 is closing development assurance reviews and system safety assessments, then submitting the final deliverables to the FAA. The MAX 7 is even closer on documentation, with final deliverable closeouts nearing completion.

That sets up a practical 2026 certification push and a later delivery ramp. Boeing says the MAX 7 and MAX 10 are on track for approval next year, while major customers including WestJet and Ryanair continue to adjust fleet plans as they await long-delayed deliveries. If certification closes, that pent-up demand becomes much easier to turn into shipments.

The market will still wait for the signature, not just the story

Skeptics are right about one thing: Boeing cannot afford another stumble. The MAX program still carries sustained regulatory and public scrutiny after the fatal crashes of two 737 MAX aircraft in 2018 and 2019. That means the market is unlikely to fully celebrate until the FAA signs off.

Even so, this update matters because the hardest-looking leg was the testing phase. Now the clock is on closeouts and review, where visibility is higher and the remaining path is easier to track.