Black Hills Keeps 2026 EPS Guidance, but the 1.8 GW Data Center Bet Still Needs a Signature

Black Hills held guidance, but the Wyoming project remains the key variable

Black Hills reaffirmed its 2026 outlook at $4.25 to $4.45 per share. The guidance itself is steady, but the backdrop is not. The main question for investors is no longer just whether demand exists in Wyoming; it is whether Black Hills can convert that demand into a fully contracted, rate-supported capital plan. The company says it is progressing toward completion of multiple definitive agreements for the 1.8 GW data center project, so the story is now less about interest in the project and more about finalizing the contracts around it.

The bear case is straightforward: same guidance, but the biggest upside driver is still not fully closed. The bull case is also clear: Wyoming Electric recently served a new all-time peak load, which management tied to growing large-load demand. That supports the idea that the load growth is real. The remaining issue is execution and contractual certainty.

With the stock yielding 3.8%, investors have some income support while they wait. But the upcoming call still matters, because the key issue is whether management can show that the Wyoming project is close to finalization, not just compelling enough to discuss.

The 1.8 GW project looks more like infrastructure buildout than speculative AI hype

The more constructive view is that this still resembles a regulated infrastructure project rather than a concept play. The practical question is whether Black Hills can build the substation, transmission, and related utility infrastructure required for a large new customer, and then recover that spending through rates. That is the core utility model, but it still depends on customer commitment and regulatory recognition.

Progress is tangible, but full closure is still unclear

Some of the project indicators are improving. Black Hills says the project is tracking for service to begin in early 2028, giving investors a concrete timeline to monitor. The company also says it is working directly with the potential large-load customer, and the Wyoming utility entered into an agreement to procure long lead-time generation equipment. Those are operational steps, not just promotional language.

The strongest evidence of customer commitment is financial. Black Hills reports the customer has provided over $200 million in refundable contributions in aid of construction to date, and it has also executed a substation agreement. Combined with Wyoming Electric's reported new all-time peak load, that suggests real project momentum rather than a distant idea.

Why the current wording still leaves investors waiting

Even so, the latest company language still stops short of saying the main agreements are fully executed. Black Hills says it is progressing toward completion of multiple definitive agreements, which suggests the project is advancing but not that every major term is finalized. For investors, that distinction matters.

On the call, the main question is simple: has the project moved from advancement to execution? If management can confirm that the remaining agreements are effectively in place, the case for a larger regulated asset base becomes stronger. If not, the project still looks promising, but it remains a contract-in-progress rather than a fully closed financing story.