Bitcoin’s Key Support Levels and Macro-Driven Volatility in a Post-Election Regime

Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2025 has been shaped by a delicate interplay of technical dynamics, macroeconomic forces, and regulatory shifts. Following the U.S. presidential election in 2024, the cryptocurrency surged past $100,000, reaching a new all-time high of $123,091 by July 2025 [4]. However, this momentum has since faltered, with the price retreating below $110,000 and testing critical support levels at $107,000 and $100,000 [3]. These levels, if held, could signal a continuation of the bull cycle; a breakdown below $100,000, however, risks reigniting bearish sentiment.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s volatility remains a defining feature. The asset’s recent 30% correction from $100,000 to $75,000 in Q3 2025 underscores its sensitivity to macroeconomic signals [1]. U.S. inflation, though easing to 2.7%, still lingers at 3.1% for core metrics, creating uncertainty around Federal Reserve rate cuts [1]. This ambiguity has amplified Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against currency devaluation, with its Sharpe ratio (2.15) outperforming traditional assets [2]. Yet, the same volatility that attracts investors also exposes them to sharp reversals, particularly in a post-election regime where policy shifts and geopolitical tensions remain potent drivers of market sentiment.

Regulatory clarity has emerged as a stabilizing force. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Project Crypto initiative, coupled with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, has institutionalized demand for the asset [5]. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal and the GENIUS Act’s passage further signal a pro-crypto policy environment [3]. These developments have reduced retail-driven volatility by 75%, as corporate treasuries now hold 6% of Bitcoin’s total supply [2]. However, regulatory risks persist. A delayed rollout of the three-category digital asset taxonomy proposed by the President’s Working Group could reintroduce uncertainty, particularly for decentralized finance (DeFi) and custody solutions [3].

Strategic entry points for investors must balance technical and macroeconomic signals. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) remains a prudent approach, especially as on-chain indicators like the MVRV Z-Score (1.43) and Value Days Destroyed (VDD) suggest accumulation by long-term holders [1]. Pairing Bitcoin with macro hedges—such as Treasury positions or inflation-linked bonds—can mitigate risks from potential rate hikes or global recessionary pressures [2]. For instance, the U.S. dollar’s 7% decline in Q3 2025, driven by tariff concerns and budget deficit anxieties, illustrates how trade policy and central bank actions can indirectly influence Bitcoin’s price [5].

The post-election regime has also introduced new variables. Trump-era tariffs, while aimed at reshaping supply chains, could disrupt energy markets and indirectly affect Bitcoin mining costs [1]. Conversely, the administration’s crypto-friendly appointments and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative have bolstered institutional confidence [3]. This duality—between regulatory optimism and macroeconomic fragility—creates a complex landscape for investors.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s key support levels and macro-driven volatility present both challenges and opportunities. While the asset’s technical resilience and institutional adoption offer a bullish case, investors must remain vigilant against regulatory delays, geopolitical shocks, and Fed policy missteps. Strategic buyers who combine technical analysis with macroeconomic hedging may find fertile ground in this dynamic market.

Source:[1] Bitcoin's Volatility in Q3 2025: Navigating a Bear-Dominant Cycle [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-volatility-q3-2025-navigating-bear-dominant-cycle-macro-technical-signals-2508][2] Bitcoin's Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Institutional Bull Case [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-short-term-volatility-long-term-institutional-bull-case-strategic-entry-points-q3-2025-2508][3] What Does the White House Digital Asset Roadmap Mean for Crypto and Blockchain Innovation [https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2025/08/What-Does-the-White-House-Digital-Asset-Roadmap-Mean-for-Crypto-and-Blockchain-Innovation][4] Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025-2030 [https://www.youhodler.com/blog/blog-bitcoin-price-prediction][5] What to Expect from Bitcoin in 2025 [https://global.morningstar.com/en-gb/markets/what-expect-bitcoin-2025]