Why AppLovin and MercadoLibre Could Surpass Palantir by 2030

The global tech landscape is shifting. While legacy players like Palantir (PLTR) have built empires on government contracts and AI infrastructure, two upstarts—AppLovin (APP) and MercadoLibre (MELI)—are racing to overtake them. With market caps of $119.89 billion and $122 billion respectively as of June 2025, both are projected to surpass Palantir's current $319 billion valuation within five years. This article dissects the drivers behind this bold ambition: explosive growth in AI-driven adtech, dominance in high-growth markets, and valuation multiples that could expand as they scale.

Palantir's Strengths—and Limits

Palantir's surge to $319 billion is no accident. Its AI Platform (AIP), embedded in defense and commercial sectors, delivers 45% annual revenue growth from U.S. government contracts and 71% growth in commercial sales. The $795 million Pentagon deal for its Maven Smart System (MSS) underscores its strategic value. Yet, its path to $331 billion by 2030 faces hurdles:

1. Dependence on Government Cycles: With 55% of revenue tied to U.S. defense spending, Palantir risks volatility in bipartisan fiscal environments.
2. High Valuation Ceiling: At a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 12.5x, its premium may limit upside unless margins expand further.

AppLovin: The AI Adtech Titan

AppLovin's $119.89 billion valuation belies its ambition. Its AI-powered Axon platform, which outperforms rivals in ad targeting, drove 40% revenue growth in Q1 2025 to $1.4 billion. Key catalysts:

• E-Commerce Advertising: A new product targeting 10 million online businesses could unlock a $100 billion addressable market.
• Machine Learning Ecosystem: Acquisitions of game studios provide vast datasets to refine AI models, creating a “flywheel” of innovation.

Analysts project 49% annual earnings growth over five years, lifting its market cap to $331 billion by 2030. A P/S ratio of 8.2x leaves room for expansion as margins improve—its Q1 operating margin hit 20%, up from 12% in 2023.

Risk: CEO Adam Foroughi's recent $36 million share sale may spook investors, but institutional ownership (41.85%) suggests long-term confidence.

MercadoLibre: Mastering Latin America's E-Commerce Frontier

MercadoLibre's $122 billion valuation is a testament to its control of Latin America's e-commerce and fintech sectors. With 37% revenue growth in Q1 2025 to $5.9 billion, its moat is formidable:

• Network Effects: Its platform hosts over 100 million active buyers, while MercadoPago's dominance in payments (275% YoY growth in loans) creates cross-selling opportunities.
• Regional Scale: It leads in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, and Brazil, leveraging logistics networks that rival Amazon's.

At a P/E of 72x, MercadoLibre trades at a premium, but its 30% annual earnings growth could justify a $331 billion valuation by 2030. A price-to-book ratio of 10.5x highlights investor faith in its asset-light model.

Risk: Regulatory scrutiny in emerging markets and competition from global players like Amazon remain threats.

The Math of Market Cap Supremacy

To surpass Palantir by 2030, AppLovin and MercadoLibre must grow their market caps by 183% and 171%, respectively. Here's how:

Company	2025 Market Cap	Required CAGR to Reach $331B by 2030	Key Leverage
AppLovin	$119.89B	16%	AI adtech's scalability, e-commerce expansion, margin improvements
MercadoLibre	$122B	15%	Latin America's GDP growth, fintech adoption, logistics leadership
Palantir	$319B	7%	Government contract renewal, commercial AI adoption

Investment Thesis: Buy the Growth, Not the Legacy

Both AppLovin and MercadoLibre offer asymmetric upside. Their high-growth sectors (adtech and e-commerce) are less mature than Palantir's government contracting, allowing for compounding returns. Meanwhile, Palantir's reliance on a single geopolitical actor introduces risk.

• AppLovin: A “Buy” with a $433.85 price target (average analyst consensus) reflects its AI-driven moat. Investors should look past insider sales and focus on its $1.4 billion Q1 revenue, which hints at a secular shift in digital advertising.
• MercadoLibre: A “Strong Buy” with a $2,402.75 stock price (June 2025) leverages its $15.8B trailing revenue and $5.9B Q1 2025 revenue, signaling resilience in volatile markets.

Conclusion: The Future Belongs to the Aggressive

Palantir's $319 billion is a milestone, but it's also a ceiling. AppLovin and MercadoLibre, by contrast, are scaling industries with $100+ billion TAM expansions. For long-term investors, buying these stocks at their current valuations—despite high P/S ratios—could mirror the early bets on Amazon or Alibaba. The path to $331 billion by 2030 is steep, but the rewards for riding these growth curves are unparalleled.

The race is on. Place your bets wisely.