Airbus's Turbulent Horizon: Can It Navigate Delivery Delays and Geopolitical Crosswinds?

The global aerospace sector is at a crossroads, with Airbus facing mounting challenges as Boeing surges ahead. While Airbus remains the industry's delivery leader year-to-date, its June shortfall and persistent supply chain bottlenecks contrast sharply with Boeing's record Q2 performance and strategic leverage of geopolitical dynamics. Investors must weigh whether Airbus's valuation reflects its operational vulnerabilities or underestimates its long-term prospects.

Delivery Delays: A Chasm Wider Than It Seems

Airbus delivered 57 aircraft in June 2025—its weakest monthly performance since early 2024—compared to Boeing's record 60-unit June surge. While Airbus maintained a 22-unit H1 lead, its Q2 deliveries of 153 aircraft lagged Boeing's 150 by a narrower margin than feared, but the structural issues remain stark.

Airbus's A320neo program, its cash cow, faces engine shortages (notably Pratt & Whitney's PW1000G) that left 40 Wizz Air aircraft grounded. Meanwhile, Boeing's 737 MAX deliveries to Chinese carriers (e.g., Xiamen Airlines) and a Qatar Airways order of 160 aircraft fueled its rebound. reveals Boeing's 20% outperformance over the past year, reflecting investor confidence in its execution.

Geopolitical Crosswinds: Boeing's Tailwind, Airbus's Headwind

U.S.-EU trade tensions favor Boeing. While the EU's tariffs on Boeing aircraft parts remain in place, smaller nations—sensitive to trade costs—may increasingly favor U.S. suppliers to avoid EU retaliatory duties. Boeing's U.S. manufacturing base and closer ties to regulators (e.g., FAA approvals) give it an edge in markets where tariffs distort procurement decisions.

Airbus, reliant on a globally fragmented supply chain, faces compounding risks. Its A220 program, dependent on Canadian engine suppliers, and A350 delays due to Spirit AeroSystems' parts shortages highlight vulnerabilities. By contrast, Boeing's localized supply chain and U.S. government support (e.g., export financing) reduce its exposure to cross-border disruptions.

Safety Scars: Boeing's Double-Edged Sword

Boeing's recent safety crises—the Air India 787 crash (241 fatalities) and cabin smoke incidents—have intensified scrutiny. While Boeing's EBIT margins have held steady due to cost-cutting, insurers now demand higher premiums for 787s, potentially deterring buyers. Yet, Boeing's proactive safety protocols and order backlog (427 gross in Q2) suggest demand remains robust. Airbus, unburdened by such recent tragedies, may see fleeting reputational gains, but its engine reliability issues (e.g., CFM Leap delays) threaten customer confidence.

Valuation: Is Airbus Overextended?

Airbus trades at a 15% premium to Boeing on a price-to-book basis, despite trailing in profitability and delivery momentum. Its 2025 delivery target of 820 aircraft hinges on resolving engine shortages and accelerating A350 production—a risky bet. Boeing, with its 2025 guidance of 600-650 deliveries, appears more conservatively priced, especially if it achieves FAA approval for higher 737 MAX output.

Investment Strategy: Rotate to Boeing, Hedge Against Geopolitics

Positioning: Short Airbus (AIR.PA) and overweight Boeing (BA). Boeing's Q2 outperformance, Qatar's blockbuster order, and U.S. trade advantages position it to gain market share. Airbus's valuation assumes flawless execution of supply chain fixes—an overoptimistic premise.

Risks: China's COMAC C919 (if it accelerates deliveries) could disrupt both, but its 2025 target of 30 deliveries (vs. 1 to date) suggests limited near-term impact. Investors should also monitor FAA approvals for Boeing's 737 MAX ramp-up and EU-U.S. tariff negotiations.

underscores Airbus's long-term pipeline, but its ability to convert orders into deliveries is now the critical test. Until supply chain bottlenecks are resolved, Boeing's valuation offers safer upside.

Conclusion

Airbus's delivery struggles and geopolitical vulnerabilities cast doubt on its premium valuation. Boeing's resurgence, bolstered by U.S. trade dynamics and pent-up demand, makes it the more compelling play in this duopoly. Investors should pivot toward Boeing while hedging against macro risks—such as a China-EU trade détente that could reignite Airbus's prospects. For now, the skies favor the resurgent Boeing.