AB InBev's Q2 Was Solid-But 1.1% Volume Growth Still Leaves the Stock in No-Man's-Land

AB InBev's Q2 looked clean, but it did not settle the valuation debate

This was a solid quarter, not a clarifying one.

Why the quarter passed the smell test

On the surface, AB InBev still looks like a well-run beer business: - revenue rose 5.6% - beer volume increased 1.1% - underlying EPS jumped 23.4% - share gains in 70% of its markets

That is enough to show the operating engine is still working. It also lines up with Q1, which delivered revenue up 5.8%, beer volume growth of 1.2%, and underlying EPS growth of 20.8%.

Why the stock still looks stuck

The real debate is simpler now: does a company delivering consistent but modest growth deserve a richer multiple, or should investors wait for clearer consumption strength? A 1.1% beer-volume increase suggests a healthy business, not yet an obvious breakout.

The improvement was under the hood: mix, margins, and balance-sheet discipline

Premium brands are helping, not just price hikes

Yes, price still mattered. But revenue per hl growth of 4.2% was not the same as a blunt price-lift quarter. More important, the stronger brands are pulling ahead: - megabrands revenue grew 8.2% in Q1 - 6.2% increase in combined revenues of megabrands in 2Q26

That is the mix quality investors want to see.

Broader categories are still expanding

AB InBev is also growing beyond core lager in ways that look demand-driven: - no-alcohol beer revenue grew 27% - Beyond Beer revenue grew 44% in Q2

Taken together with the rest of the quarter, that suggests the portfolio is reaching more occasions, not just relying on one hot spot.

Margins held up, and leverage improved

AB InBev also kept a stable margin at 35.6% while Net debt to EBITDA improved to 2.86x from 3.27x a year earlier. That combination matters. It suggests the earnings quality is holding even if the headline volume story remains only modestly better.

Bulls and bears are still arguing about what "solid" means

What bulls are really betting on

Bulls are not buying this purely on volume. The case is that stronger brands can keep mix favorable, while lower leverage gives management more room to invest. Corona, Stella Artois, and Michelob Ultra achieved revenue growth of 17%, 19%, and 21% respectively outside their home markets. If that brand pull continues, modest unit growth may be enough for earnings to keep compounding.

What bears are still worried about

Bears can fairly argue that premiumization only goes so far if consumer demand stays tame. A 1.1% beer-volume increase is fine, not strong. And it is not as if this is coming from a weak footprint: AB InBev still maintained or gained share in 70% of its markets.

Trade idea: stay constructive, but wait for proof

AB InBev still belongs on a watchlist more than a buy list. The company has shown it can post a clean quarter with beer volume growth of 1.1% and share gains in 70% of its markets. What it has not done yet is prove demand is accelerating.

The trigger

Wait for the next update to show something firmer than another steady quarter. The test is straightforward: can ABI move beyond beer volume growth of 1.2% in Q1 and 1.1% in Q2?

What to watch next

• Whether megabrands still lead the portfolio
• Whether no-alcohol beer and Beyond Beer remain strong
• Whether share gains remain broad
• Whether normalized EBITDA margin stays near 35.6%

One more quarter like this keeps ABI interesting. Better demand would make it more investable.