WELL at $4: Broken Deal or a 75%-80% Upside Opportunity?

WELL at $4: strong operating numbers, weak stock reaction

Revenue and demand still look healthy

WELL's shares are still hanging around C$4, even though the business continues to post results that look far better than the tape suggests. The stock traded as low as C$3.95 and last traded at C$4.00, while the company reported record annual revenue of $1.40 billion in 2025. That gap is why WELL looks interesting now-not as a call for an instant reversal, but as a business the market may be underpricing.

The latest quarter did not break the story. Q2 revenue rose 12% to CAD 400 million, and management said a strong June finish helped support a higher full-year outlook. Revenue grew, guidance moved higher, and the core operating story remained intact.

The clinic engine is still showing real demand

One of the simplest checks for a consumer-facing business is whether customers are still showing up. WELL posted 1.9 million patient visits in Q1 2026, up 17% from Q1 2025. Canadian patient services visits grew 33% year over year, and organic visit growth in Canada was 13%. That is a useful sign that demand is coming from actual patient traffic, not just accounting or consolidation effects.

That traffic also translated into profit. In Q1, Canadian Patient Services revenue rose 30% and Canadian Patient Services Adjusted EBITDA rose 28%. The follow-through continued into Q2, when Canadian Patient Services revenue increased 32% and Canadian Patient Services Adjusted EBITDA increased 22%. One quarter could be noise; two strong quarters in a row make the trend harder to dismiss.

Scale is still expanding the network

WELL's Canadian clinic footprint now stands at 275 clinics after closing the OID Group and UnionMD. Management also said those deals pushed WELL Canada's annualized Adjusted EBITDA run-rate above $100 million, three quarters ahead of schedule. A larger network can support more patients and practitioners, and it gives the business more room to spread fixed costs.

Why the stock still struggled: reported EBITDA fell, but the comparison was distorted

The headline that spooked investors

Q2 revenue looked solid at Q2 revenue rose 12% to CAD 400 million. But investors also saw Adjusted EBITDA of $48.1 million in Q2 2026, a decrease of 3%. Reported profit declined even as sales grew, and that kind of divergence can easily weigh on a stock trading around $4.

Normalized numbers tell a cleaner story

The important context is why reported Adjusted EBITDA fell. Management said the decline reflected Circle Medical deferrals, which had boosted Q2 2025 Adjusted EBITDA by $9.7 million. In other words, the year-ago base was unusually strong because of a timing item.

The normalized figures are easier to compare. WELL reported CAD 395.6 million on a normalized basis for Q2 revenue, and normalized adjusted EBITDA was up 8%. That makes the reported EBITDA decline look less like a break in the business model and more like a tough comparison.

What investors need to see next

For now, the key watchpoint is simple: whether the core business can keep delivering positive normalized profit growth. Canadian Patient Services Adjusted EBITDA still grew 22% in Q2, and management raised its full-year outlook. If that trend holds, the stock may prove more a victim of short-term noise than of deteriorating fundamentals.

Is $4 close enough to reasonableness for patient buyers?

Near C$4, WELL looks more like a value setup for patient investors than an easy momentum trade. The stock was as low as C$3.95 and last traded at C$4.00, then was $4.01 in after-hours trading. Against that level, the average target price of C$7.12 implies roughly 75% to 80% upside.

That upside does not mean the stock is risk-free or ready to rip. It does suggest the market is not giving much credit for the company's recent growth, its clinic footprint at 275 clinics, or its raised 2026 outlook.

A reasonable setup, but not a blind dip-buy

The stronger case here rests on normalized growth rather than the messy headline beat. Reported Adjusted EBITDA fell because a prior-year timing item made the comparison unusually favorable. If normalized profit growth remains positive and the clinic business keeps scaling, a rerating becomes easier to imagine.

The proof points that matter

• Patient visits continue to grow.
• Canadian Patient Services revenue and Adjusted EBITDA keep expanding.
• Normalized adjusted EBITDA stays above the reported figure.
• Management's higher full-year guidance holds up through the rest of the year.