Did Ternium beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What is the market's earnings forecast for Ternium next quarter?

What guidance did Ternium's management provide for the next earnings period?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Ternium year over year?

What does Ternium do and what are its main business segments?

What were the key takeaways from Ternium's earnings call?

What factors drove the changes in Ternium's revenue and profit?

What is Ternium's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

- **Cost Efficiency Drives Resilience**: $250M savings in 2025 offset safety setbacks, maintaining 10% EBITDA margin. 
- **Trade Policy Shifts**: Mexico's 35% tariffs and Brazil's antidumping measures signal global steel market realignment. 
- **Mexico Expansion Payoff**: New facilities and green financing ($1.25B loan) position Ternium for 2026 growth. 
- **2026 Outlook**: 4% Mexican demand growth, 15%+ EBITDA margin target, and $2B CapEx to support recovery. 
- **Sustainability Focus**: Green financing awards highlight Ternium's leadership in sustainable steel production.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Resilient Performance in 2025**: Achieved $250 million in cost savings through efficiency programs, despite a 10% EBITDA margin and safety setbacks (fatalities in Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina). 
- **Trade Measures and Market Shifts**: U.S. Section 232 tariffs, Mexico's 35% steel import tariffs, and Brazil's antidumping actions reshaping global steel dynamics. 
- **Mexico Expansion**: New cold rolling and galvanized lines operational; slab plant under construction with $1.25 billion green loan (awarded as 2025 Sustainable Loan of the Year). 
- **2026 Outlook**: Optimistic on profitability recovery, driven by cost reduction and fair trade policies. 

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q4 2025 Results**: Net income $171 million, EBITDA margin stable, operating income impacted by Lesa impairment. 
- **Cash Flow**: $2.3 billion cash from operations in 2025, supporting $463 million Q4 CapEx. 
- **2026 Guidance**: CapEx to drop to $2 billion; dividend maintained at $2.7 per ADS (6% yield). 

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Mexican Market Recovery**: 4% growth expected in 2026, driven by import restrictions; Ternium gaining market share. 
- **USMCA Negotiations**: Uncertainty over 2027 renewal; Ternium prioritizing regional trade fairness. 
- **Brazil Pricing Dynamics**: Antidumping measures to gradually lift domestic prices, reducing Chinese imports. 
- **EBITDA Margin Target**: Aiming for 15%+ by end-2026, excluding USMCA benefits. 
- **Capital Allocation**: 2026 focused on CapEx and dividends; 2027+ may see net debt reduction. 
- **Long-Term Growth**: Expansion in Mexico and Brazil; no immediate plans for Usiminas minority buyouts.

Ternium S.A. (TX) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **EBITDA Growth**: Sequential increase in Q3 due to cost reductions and margin improvements.
- **Dividend Stability**: $0.90 interim dividend maintained, yielding 7%.
- **Trade Policy Focus**: Advocating for Fortress North America to counter Asian imports.
- **Argentina Reforms**: Post-election optimism for steel industry growth.
- **Project Progress**: Pesqueria DRI/EAF on track for Q4 2026 start-up.
- **Brazil Challenges**: 33% steel import surge highlights need for trade defense mechanisms.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Sebastian Martí provided an overview of Q3 2025 results, emphasizing Ternium's operational improvements and the challenging global trade environment.
- The company declared an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS, maintaining the same level as last year.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q3 EBITDA increased due to cost reductions and improved margins, despite a 10% decline in Mexico's apparent steel consumption.
- Ternium supports U.S.-Mexico trade policies promoting regional integration and fair competition.
- Argentina's post-election reforms may drive steel industry growth, while Brazil faces challenges from unfair imports.
- The company received a sustainability award for its renewable energy project in Argentina.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Adjusted EBITDA rose sequentially, driven by margin improvements and cost reductions.
- Net loss of $270M included non-cash deferred tax write-downs and litigation provisions.
- Operating cash flow remained strong, with CapEx peaking at $711M in Q3.
- Interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS was approved, maintaining a 7% yield.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Argentina Strategy**: CEO and CFO discussed potential ownership structure simplification post-election reforms.
- **U.S.-Mexico Trade**: Ternium supports Fortress North America to reduce reliance on Asian imports.
- **Mexico Demand**: 2026 outlook includes 4% growth driven by infrastructure recovery and USMCA reforms.
- **Pesqueria Project**: DRI/EAF start-up in Q4 2026, with $2.7B budget on track.
- **Brazil Imports**: Antidumping duties could address 33% steel import surge, supporting domestic industry.


Ternium S.A. (TX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q2 EBITDA Growth**: 25% YoY increase driven by higher prices in Mexico and cost control.
- **Cost Savings Target**: $300M annualized savings by 2025 through operational efficiency and procurement.
- **Mexico Market Recovery**: Reduced imports support sequential shipment growth and margin improvement.
- **CapEx Peak**: $2.5B in 2025 for Pesqueria expansion, with dividend sustainability maintained despite high investments.
- **Brazil Challenges**: Unfair imports threaten margins; government action is critical for long-term stability.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Introduced the call and highlighted the release of Q2 2025 financial results.
- Emphasized the importance of the webcast presentation for reconciling non-IFRS measures and understanding forward-looking statements.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q2 Performance**: EBITDA improved sequentially, driven by higher realized prices in Mexico and stable costs despite lower shipments.
- **Market Outlook**: Anticipates sequential EBITDA improvement in Q3, with increased shipments in Mexico (due to reduced imports) and stable volumes in Brazil.
- **Cost Management**: Launched a competitiveness improvement plan targeting $300M in annualized cost savings by 2025, focusing on logistics, procurement, production efficiency, and labor productivity.
- **Strategic Projects**: Progress on the Pesqueria Industrial Center in Mexico, with new capacity expected to ramp up in late 2025.
- **Sustainability**: Highlighted the release of the 2025 Sustainable Report, detailing environmental and social initiatives.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q2 Financials**: Adjusted EBITDA up 25% YoY, net income of $259M (including a $40M provision adjustment), and adjusted net income of $299M.
- **Segment Performance**: Steel segment faced headwinds in Brazil due to unfair imports, while Mining segment saw shipment growth offset by lower iron ore prices.
- **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow of $1B, supported by reduced working capital, but elevated CapEx ($800M in Q2) led to a net cash position of $1B.
- **Dividend Policy**: Maintained dividend payments despite high CapEx, with a focus on sustaining operations and projects.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Mexico Market Dynamics**: Government measures reduced steel imports, supporting local producers. Ternium expects to gain market share in flat products, while long products may see marginal gains from ArcelorMittal's production issues.
- **Cost Reduction Breakdown**: $300M target includes $70M from procurement, $50M from process stability, and $180M from production rebalancing. Raw material cost declines (e.g., coal, slab) are a secondary factor.
- **Tariff Impact**: Shreveport plant now sources more locally due to U.S. tariffs, reducing reliance on Mexican imports.
- **Litigation Update**: Usiminas litigation remains unresolved, with an appeal pending at Brazil's Supreme Court.
- **Capital Allocation**: 2025 CapEx peak at $2.5B, with 2026 and 2027 projections of $2B and $1.2B, respectively. Dividends will be maintained, but Brazil investments depend on government trade policy responses.


Ternium S.A. (TX) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Mexico Growth Catalyst**: Plan Mexico and USMCA alignment to reduce Asian imports, with 400k tons/month import substitution potential.
- **Cost Efficiency**: Q2 EBITDA margin to reach double digits, driven by lower steel costs and operational improvements.
- **Argentina Recovery**: Shipments up 20% QoQ, supported by macro stabilization and reduced FX restrictions.
- **CapEx Update**: $4 billion expansion project delayed to 2026, with 70% funding secured via strong balance sheet.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 EBITDA increased sequentially due to margin improvements and higher shipments.
- Mexico's challenging operating environment is offset by government support for local production (Plan Mexico) and USMCA renegotiation opportunities.
- Brazil faces unfair trade practices, with ongoing anti-dumping investigations against Chinese imports.
- Argentina shows macroeconomic improvement, supporting steel demand recovery.
- Mexico expansion project delayed to Q4 2026 with revised CapEx of $4 billion (+16%), driven by higher construction and assembly costs.

**【CFO Financial Review】**
- Q1 2025 net income: $142 million (GAAP), $188 million (adjusted, excluding litigation provisions).
- Steel segment: Sequentially stable shipments, margin improvement from cost reductions.
- Mining segment: 14% YoY shipment growth, margin pressure from rising costs.
- Cash flow strong with $1.3 billion net cash position, supporting $2.5 billion 2025 CapEx plan.

**【Q&A Key Points】**
- **Mexico Market**: Imports down 30% YoY, but GDP growth uncertainty persists. Ternium aims to gain share via new production lines.
- **Cost Control**: Q2 cost per ton expected to decline further, supporting double-digit EBITDA margin.
- **Argentina Expansion**: No immediate plans due to spare capacity, but macro stabilization could enable future growth.
- **USMCA Risks**: Base case assumes stronger agreement, but tariffs could strain regional trade balance.
- **FX Controls in Argentina**: Dividend payments possible via government bonds, reducing repatriation barriers.

Ternium (TX)-30 Apr 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Resilient Cash Flow**: $2 billion in cash generation vs. $2 billion CapEx and $600M dividends, maintaining $1.6 billion net cash.
- **Mexico Expansion Acceleration**: Cold rolling and galvanizing lines now set to start in Q4 2025, 2 months ahead of schedule.
- **Wind Energy Impact**: 480 GWh/year wind farm in Argentina replaces 3rd-party power, cutting costs and advancing decarbonization.
- **2025 Outlook**: Q1 EBITDA up sequentially; CapEx peaks at $2.5 billion but supported by $2.70/ADS dividend (9% yield).
- **Trade Risk Mitigation**: <4% flat steel exports to US limits tariff exposure; operational efficiency offsets trade uncertainty.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Ternium reported 2024 shipments of 16 million tons with adjusted EBITDA of $2 billion (12% margin), generating $2 billion in cash despite $2 billion in CapEx and $600 million in dividends.
- Mexico's downstream expansion project in Pesqueria is advancing: two new lines (cold rolling mill and hot-dip galvanized) set to start in Q4 2025, with full ramp-up expected by Q1 2026.
- Argentina's 480 GWh wind farm now operational, replacing 3rd-party electricity and supporting decarbonization goals.
- US trade actions targeting Mexico and steel imports under Section 232 create uncertainty, but Ternium is adapting through operational efficiency and USMCA alignment.
- Brazil's flat steel imports from China surged to 3 million tons in 2024, overwhelming local capacity and requiring government intervention.
- Argentina's steel demand declined 20% in 2024 due to macroeconomic measures, but macro improvement expected in 2025.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q4 2024: Adjusted EBITDA declined due to lower steel prices and shipments, partially offset by cost reductions. Net income $333 million (including $404 million litigation reversal).
- Full-year 2024: EBITDA down 12% YoY, driven by steel price declines and Usiminas FX impacts. Cash flow from operations strong at $1.6 billion net cash.
- 2025 Outlook: CapEx to peak at $2.5 billion, with $2.70/ADS dividend proposal (9% yield). Q1 2025 EBITDA expected to improve sequentially due to cost declines outpacing price reductions.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Mexico Expansion**: Cold rolling and galvanizing lines to reach full capacity by Q1 2026; steel shop startup remains mid-2026.
- **Usiminas Strategy**: Nippon Steel stake purchase option (July 2025) under review; mining CapEx decisions expected by end-2025.
- **Trade Policy Risks**: Ternium maintains strong net cash position ($1.6 billion) to navigate US trade uncertainty; <4% flat steel exports to US limits direct exposure.
- **China Steel Export Threat**: Brazil import quota system ineffective; Ternium hopes 2025 will see more effective anti-dumping measures in Brazil and Argentina.
- **Scrap Market Impact**: Argentina scrap usage minimal (<8,000 tons/month), limiting cost volatility exposure.


Actual											-0.06	0.22	0.74	3.06	3.07	5.21	6.12	5.08	3.95	4.07	0.78	0.2	1.91	3.19	1.38	2.11	1.84	-3.71	0.16	1.43	0.34	1.28	0.2524	-1.65
Forecast											0.3925	0.0003	0.2688	1.1568	2.5716	3.4739	5.3896	5.0264	3.3106	3.5868	1.8564	0.2913	0.9417	1.9452	1.5362	1.1646	1.5766	1.2468	0.6335	0.7382	0.5787	0.6039	0.7862	0.6971
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-115.29%	+73233.33%	+175.30%	+164.52%	+19.38%	+49.98%	+13.55%	+1.07%	+19.31%	+13.47%	-57.98%	-31.34%	+102.82%	+63.99%	-10.17%	+81.18%	+16.71%	-397.56%	-74.74%	+93.71%	-41.25%	+111.96%	-67.90%	-336.69%

Actual	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	2.27B	1.75B	2.14B	2.58B	3.25B	3.92B	4.59B	4.33B	4.30B	4.44B	4.13B	3.55B	3.62B	3.87B	5.18B	4.93B	4.78B	4.51B	4.48B	3.88B	3.93B	3.95B	3.96B	3.77B
Forecast	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	2.38B	1.67B	2.01B	2.46B	3.20B	3.78B	4.54B	4.62B	4.36B	4.53B	3.98B	3.71B	3.63B	4.11B	3.79B	4.94B	4.78B	4.57B	4.45B	4.19B	3.87B	3.99B	4.01B	3.72B
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-4.40%	+4.28%	+6.39%	+5.02%	+1.69%	+3.81%	+1.24%	-6.27%	-1.22%	-2.11%	+3.64%	-4.53%	-0.27%	-5.86%	+36.69%	-0.08%	-0.05%	-1.22%	+0.69%	-7.45%	+1.59%	-1.00%	-1.25%	+1.43%

TX

TX fundamentals

TX Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

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TX

TX fundamentals

TX Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

TX Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20259:30 AM on Feb 18, 2026

TX Earnings Call Summary for Q3/20258:30 AM on Oct 29, 2025

TX Earnings Call Summary for Q2/20258:30 AM on Jul 30, 2025

TX Earnings Call Summary for Q1/20258:30 AM on Apr 30, 2025

TX Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20248:30 AM on Feb 19, 2025

You can ask Aime