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What factors drove the changes in Eli Lilly's revenue and profit?

- **Revenue Growth Acceleration**: 2025 full-year revenue up 45% to $65.2B, driven by Mounjaro, Zepbound, and new product launches.
- **AI and Manufacturing Expansion**: $55B+ investment in manufacturing capacity, with 180% YoY increase in obesity med production. New AI collaboration with NVIDIA to accelerate drug discovery.
- **2026 Outlook**: Guidance for $80-83B revenue and $3.50-35 EPS, fueled by orforglipron launch, international Mounjaro growth, and Medicare/Medicaid access rollouts.
- **Key Risks**: Price erosion (low-mid teens YoY) and new manufacturing site costs may pressure margins, but volume growth (e.g., oral GLP-1s) expected to offset.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **2025 Performance Highlight**: Full-year revenue grew 45% to $65.2 billion, driven by key products like Mounjaro, Zepbound, and new launches (e.g., Inluriyo, Omvoh). Gross margin remained stable at 83.2%, while R&D expenses increased 26%.
- **Pipeline and AI Investment**: 39 business development deals added clinical assets (e.g., Scorpion, Verve). New AI collaboration with NVIDIA aims to accelerate drug discovery. Manufacturing expansion ($55B+ investment) increased production capacity for obesity meds by 180% YoY.
- **Government Access Agreement**: Medicare/Medicaid patients can access obesity meds for $50/month, with 1M+ patients using direct-to-patient platform (e.g., Zepbound self-pay vials).

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q4 2025 Results**: Revenue up 43% YoY, EPS $7.54 (86% YoY growth). Non-GAAP performance margin 47.2%, up 4.2pts YoY. 2026 Guidance: Revenue $80-83B (25% growth), EPS $3.50-35. Key drivers: U.S. oral GLP-1 launches (e.g., orforglipron Q2 2026), international Mounjaro expansion, and Medicare/Medicaid access rollouts.
- **Financial Dynamics**: Price erosion (low-mid teens YoY) offset by volume growth. Gross margin stable to slightly down due to new manufacturing sites. R&D and marketing expenses expected to rise with pipeline expansion.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Orforglipron Launch Metrics**: Targeting $50/month co-pay for Medicare patients. Early data shows oral GLP-1s expand market (e.g., 1/3 of new Zepbound starts via self-pay). 2026 launch in 40+ countries, with U.S. as primary growth driver.
- **International Mounjaro Growth**: Became incretin market leader outside U.S., with 55%+ new prescriptions in type 2 diabetes. 2026 focus: China NRDL listing, reimbursement expansion, and patient activation in chronic weight management.
- **Immunology Strategy**: Combining incretins with immunology therapies (e.g., Taltz + Zepbound in psoriasis) shows efficacy. Phase III trials for brenipatide in asthma and retatrutide in knee osteoarthritis expected to read out in 2026.
- **Medicare Access Impact**: Orforglipron launch coincides with Medicare coverage (July 2026). Anticipate 10-20% of LillyDirect business migrating to Medicare, with employer opt-ins increasing in 2027.
- **Price Elasticity**: Direct-to-patient pricing ($2.99/Zepbound vial) drives utilization. Oral GLP-1s positioned as "titration-free" alternatives to injectables, with eloralintide Phase III cardiovascular outcomes trial underway.

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Super Growth**: 54% YoY to $12.3B, driven by Mounjaro (+100% Europe), Zepbound (U.S. prescriptions tripled), and LillyDirect (40% vial share).
- **Pipeline Breakthroughs**: Orforglipron global submissions for obesity; retatrutide Phase III starts; Kisunla EU approved.
- **Expanded Manufacturing**: $1.3B in dividends, $700M buybacks; new U.S. facilities for bioconjugates and small molecules.
- **Strategic Pricing**: Orforglipron poised for 100M+ patients via direct-to-consumer and PBM channels; Mounjaro 75% non-U.S. revenue from out-of-pocket obesity.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q3 2025 revenue grew 54% YoY, driven by key products like Mounjaro and Zepbound. U.S. market share in incretin analogs reached 60%, with Lilly medicines accounting for 60% of new prescriptions.
- Pipeline milestones included FDA approval for Inluriyo (imlunestrant) and Kisunla in Europe, positive Phase III results for Jaypirca and Verzenio, and global regulatory submissions for orforglipron in obesity.
- Manufacturing expansion announced: new facilities in Virginia (bioconjugate/monoclonal antibodies) and Texas (small molecules), plus Puerto Rico expansion.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q3 revenue: $12.3B (54% YoY growth). Non-GAAP EPS: $7.02 (vs. $1.18 YoY). Gross margin: 83.6% (up 1.4pp YoY) due to favorable product mix.
- U.S. revenue +45% YoY (Mounjaro, Zepbound growth), Europe +100% (Mounjaro uptake). Japan/China/ROW: 24%/22%/51% growth.
- Full-year guidance updated: Revenue $63-63.5B (midpoint +$2B), non-GAAP EPS $23-23.70.

**【R&D & Pipeline Update】**
- **Cardiometabolic:**
  - Orforglipron: 4 Phase III trials completed (obesity, type 2 diabetes). Global submissions for obesity underway; U.S. launch expected 2026.
  - Retatrutide: Phase III trials for obesity and knee osteoarthritis. First readout (TRIUMPH-4) expected late 2025.
  - Muvalaplin: Phase III for Lp(a) reduction in cardiovascular disease.
- **Oncology:**
  - Jaypirca: Phase III data shows PFS benefit in CLL. Inluriyo approved for ER+/ESR1-mutated breast cancer.
  - Verzenio: Positive OS data in high-risk early breast cancer.
- **Neuroscience:**
  - Kisunla EU approval; U.S. prescriptions +50% QoQ. Remternetug Phase III for preclinical Alzheimer's.
  - Brenipatide: Phase II for alcohol use disorder; Phase III for obesity expected 2026.

**【International Growth】**
- Mounjaro launched in 55 countries, 75% of non-U.S. revenue from obesity (out-of-pocket). Strong uptake in China, Brazil, India.
- LillyDirect (direct-to-consumer) accounts for 40% of U.S. Zepbound vial prescriptions.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Orforglipron Launch Strategy:**
  - U.S. and global launches in 2026; pricing strategy to balance consumer access and payer coverage.
  - Potential for 100M+ patients globally, leveraging LillyDirect and PBM partnerships.
- **Mounjaro International Growth:**
  - 75% of non-U.S. revenue from obesity; 55 country launches. Reimbursement discussions ongoing in Europe.
- **GLP-1 Pricing Dynamics:**
  - Semaglutide IRA negotiations may impact 2027 Part D pricing, but Lilly focuses on differentiation (efficacy, convenience).
  - Orforglipron's oral, once-daily profile positions it for broader market share.


Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Surge**: 38% YoY growth driven by Zepbound (3.4B sales) and Mounjaro (5.2B sales). U.S. incretin market grew 41% Q2 vs. Q2 2024.
- **Pipeline Breakthroughs**: Orforglipron Phase III success (27 lbs weight loss) and tirzepatide cardiovascular protection data. SURMOUNT-MMO trial enrolling 15,000 obesity patients.
- **Manufacturing Scale**: 1.8x H2 2025 incretin dose production vs. H2 2024. New U.S. facilities announced Q3.
- **Strategic Acquisitions**: SiteOne's pain portfolio and Verve's genetic cardiovascular medicines expand pipeline.
- **Pricing Strategy**: LillyDirect Zepbound at >50% discount. Opposed to U.S. price importation, advocating systemic reform.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q2 2025 revenue increased 38% YoY, driven by key products like Zepbound, Mounjaro, and Ebglyss. U.S. revenue grew 38%, Europe 77% (constant currency), and China 19% (constant currency).
- **Product Highlights**: Mounjaro became the U.S. market leader in type 2 diabetes incretin prescriptions. Zepbound maintains 66% share of the branded anti-obesity market. Lilly gained market share in the incretin analog class for the fourth consecutive quarter.
- **R&D Milestones**: Positive Phase III results for orforglipron (ATTAIN-1) and tirzepatide (SURPASS-CVOT). Acquisitions of SiteOne Therapeutics (pain portfolio) and Verve Therapeutics (genetic cardiovascular medicines).
- **Manufacturing Expansion**: Produced 1.6x more salable incretin doses in H1 2025 vs. H1 2024. Announcing locations for 2 new U.S. manufacturing facilities later in Q3.
- **Pricing Strategy**: Direct-to-consumer channel (LillyDirect) for Zepbound at >50% discount off list price. Opposed to U.S. importation of foreign price controls, emphasizing need for systemic reform.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Financial Performance**: Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $6.31 (61% YoY growth). Gross margin 85% (3ppt YoY improvement). R&D expenses +23%, marketing/sales +30%.
- **Guidance Update**: Full-year revenue raised to $60-62B (prev. $57-59B). Non-GAAP EPS $21.75-23 (prev. $20.50-22.50). 2025 incretin dose production expected to be 1.8x H2 2024 levels.
- **Geographic Growth**: U.S. revenue growth offset by 8% price decline. Europe and China growth driven by Mounjaro launches. Rest-of-world impacted by base-period stocking.

**【R&D & Pipeline Highlights】**
- **Tirzepatide**: SURPASS-CVOT demonstrated cardiovascular protection (8% lower MACE-3 vs. Trulicity). SURMOUNT-MMO trial enrolling 15,000 patients for obesity-related morbidity/mortality.
- **Orforglipron**: ATTAIN-1 showed 7.8-12.4% body weight loss (27 lbs at highest dose). Safety profile consistent with GLP-1 class. 4 additional Phase III trials expected to report by end-2025.
- **Pirtobrutinib**: BRUIN CLL-314 trial met PFS non-inferiority vs. ibrutinib. Regulatory submissions planned for CLL/SLL.
- **New Acquisitions**: SiteOne's Nav1.8 inhibitor for pain; Verve's PCSK9 and ANGPTL3 genetic medicines for cardiovascular disease.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Orforglipron Efficacy**: 12.4% weight loss vs. Wegovy's 15.1% in OASIS-4. Lilly emphasizes convenience (oral vs. injectable) and production scale advantages.
- **CVS Impact**: Zepbound prescriptions declined in July post-CVS exclusion. Q3 growth rate expected to be negatively impacted, but long-term outlook remains strong.
- **Employer Coverage**: ~50-55% employer opt-in for anti-obesity meds. New benefit designs (e.g., Evernorth out-of-pocket caps) may increase coverage.
- **Global Pricing Strategy**: Exploring net parity for new products between U.S. and Europe. LillyDirect channel for Zepbound addresses U.S. coverage gaps.
- **Compounding Risks**: Opposed to compounded semaglutide, citing patient safety concerns. U.S. regulatory enforcement needed to eliminate counterfeit meds.


Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Super Growth**: 45% YoY rise driven by Mounjaro ($3.8B) and Zepbound ($2.3B) leadership in diabetes and obesity.
- **Orforglipron Breakthrough**: Phase 3 data shows GLP-1-like efficacy (1.3-1.6% HbA1c reduction, 16lb weight loss) with tolerable safety profile.
- **Manufacturing Ambition**: $50B U.S. investment to ensure domestic supply, targeting 100% U.S. production for U.S. market.
- **Pricing Strategy Shift**: Moving away from rebate-heavy models to transparent, competitive pricing for self-pay channels.
- **Tariff Watch**: Current tariffs minimal impact, but industry risks if expanded.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q1 revenue grew 45% YoY, driven by key products like Mounjaro and Zepbound, which contributed $7.5 billion in revenue.
- Highlighted Phase 3 data for oral GLP-1 receptor agonist orforglipron, showing 1.3-1.6% HbA1c reduction and 16-pound weight loss in Type 2 diabetes patients.
- Announced $50 billion in U.S. manufacturing investments since 2020, emphasizing domestic supply chain resilience.
- Addressed tariffs, stating current tariffs have limited impact but expanded tariffs could harm the industry.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q1 non-GAAP EPS: $3.34 (excluding $1.72 impact from acquired IPR&D charges).
- Gross margin: 83.5% (up 1ppts YoY) due to cost improvements and product mix.
- R&D expenses: $1.57 billion (8% YoY increase) for late-stage assets and early-stage research.
- Non-GAAP performance margin: 42.6% (up 11ppts YoY) reflecting strong profitability.

**【R&D Update】**
- Orforglipron Phase 3 trial (ACHIEVE-1) met efficacy targets, with 65% of patients achieving HbA1c ≤6.5% and 16-pound weight loss.
- Safety profile comparable to injectable GLP-1s, with low discontinuation rates (4-8%).
- Planned Phase 3 readouts for obesity and diabetes trials over next 12 months.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **CVS Formulary Decision**: Zepbound removed from preferred list, but company emphasizes oral convenience and pipeline (e.g., orforglipron) to maintain share.
- **Pricing Strategy**: Focus on transparent pricing vs. competitors, reducing gross-to-net spreads.
- **Tariff Risks**: Current tariffs minimal impact, but expanded tariffs could hurt exports.
- **Market Share Dynamics**: Zepbound leads U.S. branded obesity market (60% new prescriptions), despite PBM access challenges.


Eli Lilly and (LLY)-1 May 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Revenue Growth Surpasses Expectations**: 2024 full-year revenue up 32% YoY, exceeding guidance by $4B, with Q4 up 45% YoY.
- **New Products Drive Growth**: Mounjaro and Zepbound contributed $3.1B incremental revenue, with Zepbound capturing 52% of U.S. anti-obesity market.
- **Pipeline Momentum**: 8 new Phase III programs started in 2024; positive Phase III results for Zepbound in obesity.
- **Margin Expansion**: Gross margin - OpEx ratio target 41.5-43.5% in 2025 (340bp expansion YoY).
- **Shareholder Returns**: $3B returned in 2024; $15B buyback program announced for 2025.
- **Manufacturing Scale-Up**: $23B+ invested since 2020; 2025 capacity to produce 1.6x 2024 H1 sellable doses.
- **R&D Investment**: 2025 plans include Phase III programs for KRAS G12C inhibitor and orforglipron, with retatrutide data expected Q3 2025.
- **Market Access**: Zepbound OSA Medicare coverage expected H2 2025; global Mounjaro launches constrained by supply.


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Full-year 2024 revenue grew 32% YoY, exceeding guidance by $4 billion, with Q4 revenue up 45% YoY.
- New products drove $3.1 billion in incremental revenue, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound.
- Pipeline advancements include 8 new Phase III programs and positive Phase III results for Zepbound in obesity.
- Manufacturing investments exceed $23 billion since 2020, with capacity to produce 1.5x more incretin doses in H2 2024 vs H2 2023.
- Returned $3 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, with a new $15 billion buyback program announced.

**【CFO Financial Review】**
- Q4 2024 revenue: $11.4 billion (45% YoY growth), driven by Mounjaro (+$3.5 billion) and Zepbound (+$1.9 billion U.S. segment).
- Gross margin: 83.2% (up 1.2ppt YoY), benefiting from favorable product mix.
- R&D expenses: $2.8 billion (18% YoY), supporting 8 new Phase III programs.
- SG&A expenses: $5.3 billion (26% YoY), driven by commercial investments.
- Operating income: $5.6 billion (104% YoY growth).
- 2025 guidance: Revenue $58-61 billion (32% YoY growth), non-GAAP EPS $22.50-24.

**【CFO 2025 Guidance】**
- U.S. incretin market growth expected to continue at 2024 pace, with Mounjaro launches in new international markets.
- Trulicity volume decline expected as patients switch to newer incretins.
- Gross margin - OpEx ratio target: 41.5-43.5% (340bp YoY expansion).
- R&D investment to accelerate Phase III programs and new Phase III starts.

**【CFO Pricing & Mix】**
- U.S. realized prices down 5% Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023 due to rebate adjustments.
- Europe revenue grew 82% (61% ex-one-time payment), Japan +27%, China +13%.
- Global Zepbound share of anti-obesity market increased 3ppt to 52%.

**【CFO Supply Chain】**
- No wholesaler backorders at year-end; U.S. direct-to-consumer vials increased uptake.
- 2025 manufacturing capacity: 1.6x 2024 H1 sellable doses vs 2024 H1.

**【CFO Shareholder Returns】**
- 2024: $3 billion returned via dividends ($2.1B) and buybacks ($0.9B).
- 2025: $15B buyback program announced; 7th consecutive 15% dividend increase.

**【CFO Margin Expansion】**
- 2024: Gross margin - OpEx ratio 38.1% (vs 34.7% 2023).
- 2025 target: 41.5-43.5% (340bp expansion).
- Long-term margin target: High 40s, balanced against R&D investment needs.

**【CFO R&D Investment】**
- 2024: 8 new Phase III programs started; 21 Phase III trials read out.
- 2025: 2 new Phase III programs planned (KRAS G12C inhibitor in NSCLC, orforglipron in hypertension).
- Triple-acting incretin (retatrutide) Phase III data expected Q3 2025.

**【CFO Market Access】**
- U.S. commercial coverage for Zepbound OSA: >50% employer opt-in; Medicare coverage expected H2 2025.
- Global Mounjaro launches in new markets despite supply constraints.

**【CFO Risks】**
- Foreign exchange headwind expected in 2025.
- U.S. Part D price cuts could impact realized prices.
- Manufacturing scale-up for orforglipron (oral GLP-1) planned for 2026.


Actual																1.75	1.89	1.54	2.75	1.87	1.87	1.94	2.49	2.62	1.25	1.98	2.09	1.62	2.11	0.1	2.49	2.58	3.92	1.18	5.32	3.34	6.31	7.02	7.54
Forecast																1.4795	1.5613	1.7123	2.3683	2.1183	1.8925	1.9627	2.4461	2.2923	1.7003	1.9141	1.7829	1.7257	1.9792	-0.1789	2.2959	2.4657	2.7426	1.4211	5.0449	3.2582	5.5988	5.6919	6.911	7.2639
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	+18.28%	+21.05%	-10.06%	+16.12%	-11.72%	-1.19%	-1.16%	+1.79%	+14.30%	-26.48%	+3.44%	+17.22%	-6.13%	+6.61%	+155.90%	+8.45%	+4.64%	+42.93%	-16.97%	+5.45%	+2.51%	+12.70%	+23.33%	+9.10%	0.00%

Actual	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	5.86B	5.50B	5.74B	7.44B	6.81B	6.74B	6.77B	8.00B	7.81B	6.49B	6.94B	7.30B	6.96B	8.31B	9.50B	9.35B	8.77B	11.30B	11.44B	13.53B	12.73B	15.56B	17.60B	19.29B	--
Forecast	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	5.49B	5.76B	5.88B	7.27B	6.93B	6.60B	6.64B	7.69B	7.29B	6.85B	6.89B	7.33B	6.86B	7.58B	8.97B	8.95B	8.94B	9.98B	12.10B	13.47B	12.67B	14.70B	16.05B	17.94B	17.61B
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	+6.70%	-4.58%	-2.29%	+2.37%	-1.83%	+2.19%	+2.01%	+4.06%	+7.18%	-5.27%	+0.78%	-0.42%	+1.41%	+9.62%	+5.93%	+4.55%	-1.88%	+13.24%	-5.44%	+0.44%	+0.48%	+5.80%	+9.64%	+7.51%	0.00%

LLY

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LLY Q1 2026 Earnings Preview

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LLY

LLY fundamentals

LLY Q1 2026 Earnings Preview

Earnings Call

LLY Earnings Call Summary for Q1/2026Upcoming Apr 1, 2026

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LLY Earnings Call Summary for Q3/202510:00 AM on Oct 30, 2025

LLY Earnings Call Summary for Q2/20258:30 AM on Aug 7, 2025

LLY Earnings Call Summary for Q1/202510:00 AM on May 1, 2025

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