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What is the market's earnings forecast for Keycorp next quarter?

What were the key takeaways from Keycorp's earnings call?

Did Keycorp beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

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What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Keycorp year over year?

- **Revenue Outperformance**: Q4 2025 revenue up 12% YoY, full-year growth 16%, driven by NII and fee income exceeding targets.
- **Aggressive Buybacks**: $300M+ Q1 2026 buybacks, targeting 9.5%-10% CET1 ratio, with $1.2B+ annual repurchase plan.
- **Strategic Growth**: 9% frontline banker hiring, $100M+ AI investment, and 7%+ fee-based business growth.
- **2026 Outlook**: 7% revenue growth, 300-400bps operating leverage, and 15%+ ROTCE target by end-2027.
- **Credit Stability**: NCO ratio 41bps in 2025, improving asset quality trends, and cautious but optimistic on M&A recovery.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q4 2025 revenue exceeded $2 billion, up 12% YoY, with full-year record revenue growth of 16%. Net interest income (NII) and fee income both outperformed guidance.
- **Share Buybacks**: Repurchased $200M in Q4, exceeding the original $100M commitment. Plans to repurchase at least $300M in Q1 2026 and $1.2B annually, targeting a CET1 ratio of 9.5%-10% by year-end.
- **Expense Management**: Full-year expenses grew 4.6%, with 1,200bps of operating leverage. Q4 expenses up 7% sequentially due to hiring and incentive pay.
- **Strategic Priorities**: Hiring 9% of frontline bankers, $100M+ investment in AI and customer-facing tech, and focus on fee-based businesses (wealth, payments, investment banking).
- **2026 Outlook**: 7% revenue growth (8%-10% NII, 3%-4% fee income), 3%-4% expense growth, and 300-400bps operating leverage.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Financial Metrics**: Q4 NIM 2.82% (vs. 2.75%-2.8% target), GAAP EPS $0.43, and tangible book value up 3% QoQ. Full-year NCO ratio 41bps, down from 45bps in 2024.
- **Balance Sheet**: Average loans flat QoQ, with C&I up $900M. Deposit costs declined 16bps to 1.81%, driven by lower beta repricing.
- **Capital Management**: CET1 ratio 10.3% (marked basis), with plans to reduce to 9.5%-10% by end-2026. 2026 buyback guidance: $1.2B+.
- **2026 Guidance**: NII growth 8%-10%, fee income 3%-4%, and ROTCE target 15%+ by end-2027.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Capital Allocation**: Prioritize organic growth, tech/hiring, and buybacks. 2026 dividend + buyback payout ratio ~70%-80%.
- **Investment Banking**: Q4 fees up 10% YoY, guided for 5% growth in 2026. Middle-market M&A pipelines improving, but cautious on full-year visibility.
- **Commercial Loans**: 2026 C&I growth 5%, CRE flat to up 3%. Consumer loan runoff ($600M/Q) to continue, replaced by home equity and student lending.
- **AI Impact**: Early-stage savings (e.g., $0.25 vs. $9 per call), with focus on loan underwriting and client experience.
- **Credit Risk**: NCO ratio 40-45bps for 2026, with improving asset quality trends (NPAs, criticized loans down QoQ).

KeyCorp (KEY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Growth**: 17% revenue YoY, 2.75% NIM, and $100M+ Q4 buybacks signal aggressive capital return. 
- **15% ROTCE Target**: 2027 milestone achievable via 50bps NIM expansion and fee-based growth. 
- **Frontline Expansion**: 10% staff increase drives fee income, with mass affluent AUM at $68B. 
- **Credit Strength**: 42bps NCOs, 6% NPAs decline, and 10.3% marked CET1 support flexibility. 
- **Strategic Focus**: No M&A, prioritizing organic commercial loan and wealth growth. 
- **Regulatory Shift**: Simplified exams enable focus on earnings and liquidity.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Reported 17% year-over-year growth in revenue, driven by commercial loan expansion and fee income. 
- **Net Interest Margin (NIM)**: Achieved 2.75% NIM, meeting the year-end target a quarter early, with plans for modest further growth. 
- **AI Investment**: Frontline staff increased by 10%, with new hires in mass affluent and institutional banking contributing to record fee income. 
- **Strategic Targets**: Announced a 15%+ Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) target by 2027, achievable through NIM expansion, fee growth, and capital efficiency. 
- **Share Buybacks**: Plans to repurchase $100 million of common stock in Q4, with flexibility to accelerate based on market conditions.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Financial Performance**: GAAP net income of $40 million, Non-GAAP EPS of $1.08 (vs. $0.95 prior), with operating expenses up 7% YoY due to frontline hiring. 
- **Balance Sheet**: Average loans grew $0.5 billion QoQ, deposits increased 2% (3% period-end), with low-cost deposits at 19% of total. 
- **Credit Quality**: Net charge-offs at 42 basis points (41% YoY), within the 40-45bp target range, with NPAs declining 6%. 
- **Capital Management**: CET1 ratio at 11.8%, marked CET1 at 10.3%, enabling active share repurchases. 
- **Guidance**: Full-year NII growth of 22%, fees up 5-6%, and operating leverage of >100bps.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **ROTCE Strategy**: 15%+ ROTCE target via 50bps NIM expansion, fee growth, and capital discipline. 
- **M&A Caution**: No active bank M&A, focusing on organic growth and tuck-in deals. 
- **Deposit Growth**: Commercial deposits up 2% QoQ, consumer deposits stable with mix shift to noninterest-bearing. 
- **Regulatory Shift**: Positive regulator focus on safety/soundness, reducing procedural exams. 
- **Investment Banking**: $184 million Q3 fees, pipeline up 2x YoY, targeting $1 billion annualized. 
- **Risk Management**: No direct auto industry exposure, credit metrics improving across NPAs and charge-offs.

KeyCorp (KEY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Surge**: 21% YoY growth, driven by $3B+ commercial loan growth and record investment banking fees ($353M first half).
- **Profitability Boost**: NIM up 8bps to 2.66%, with 55% deposit beta to rate cuts. Full-year NII guidance raised to 20-22% growth.
- **Credit Strength**: Net charge-offs down 7% QoQ, criticized loans reduced by $200M. CET1 ratio at 11.7%, top peer quartile.
- **Strategic Growth**: 10% frontline banker hiring, $100M tech spend, and HELOC expansion targeting $2-3B opportunity.
- **Risk Management**: Monitoring leveraged companies (2-3% of loans) and Medicare-dependent sectors; active special servicing balances near record levels.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: 21% year-over-year, driven by strong commercial loan growth and fee-based businesses. Full-year commercial loan growth target of $3 billion achieved by Q2, with backlogs in institutional and middle-market lending.
- **Fee Performance**: Investment banking fees up 41% YoY, second-best first half in company history. Assets under management reached $64 billion, with record sales in mass affluent segment.
- **Credit Quality**: Net charge-offs down 7% QoQ, criticized loans reduced by $200 million. Credit migration improved for sixth consecutive quarter.
- **Strategic Investments**: 10% increase in frontline bankers (investment bankers, wealth managers, payments advisers) and $100 million tech spend for 2025. Middle-market teams in Chicago and Southern California driving new client growth.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Net Interest Income (NII)**: +28% YoY, +4% QoQ to $1.4 billion. NIM increased 8bps to 2.66%, benefiting from deposit beta management (55% cumulative beta) and loan growth.
- **Expenses**: +7% YoY, excluding $10 million charitable contribution. Guidance for 3-5% expense growth reflects hiring and tech investments.
- **Credit Metrics**: Provision for credit losses $138 million (including $36M reserve build). CET1 ratio 11.7%, marked CET1 10%, near top of peer group.
- **Guidance Update**: Full-year NII growth revised to 20-22% (from 20%), exit rate NII +11% vs. 2024Q4. Loan growth guidance improved to average loans -1% to +2% YoY, with commercial loans +5%.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Client Sentiment**: Cautiously optimistic, with 50% of surveyed C&amp;I clients viewing current environment as growth opportunity. Middle-market bankers gaining share broadly.
- **Deposit Strategy**: Prioritized beta management in first half, reducing interest-bearing costs below 2%. Second-half focus on balanced approach between rate and deposit growth.
- **Capital Allocation**: Targeting modest share buybacks in Q3, stepping up in Q4. Dividend priority maintained, with flexibility for niche acquisitions.
- **Risk Watch**: Monitoring leveraged companies (2-3% of loans) and Medicare-dependent sectors. Active special servicing balances near record levels in Sunbelt multifamily and lodging.
- **M&A Outlook**: Bank M&amp;A not a priority; focus on nonbank tuck-ins and middle-market M&amp;A velocity expected to pick up post-Labor Day.


KeyCorp (KEY) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Growth & Margin Expansion**: 16% YoY revenue rise, 25% NII growth, and 170bps fee-based operating leverage.
- **Capital Strength**: CET1 11.8%, 30%+ cash on balance sheet, and $1B share buyback authorization.
- **Strategic Resilience**: 20% NII growth target intact via restructured assets; 5%+ fee growth driven by investment banking and servicing.
- **Macro Flexibility**: 9.5%-10% CET1 target; deposit beta 46% vs. 30% prior guidance.
- **Client Engagement**: Project loans (+$1.2B C&amp;I) and 68k community volunteer hours highlight proactive client support.


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 revenue up 16% YoY, expenses flat (excluding FDIC assessment). Pre-provision net revenue increased $90M QoQ, with NPAs down 10% sequentially.
- **Strategic Positioning**: Scotiabank minority investment enhanced capital (CET1 11.8%) and liquidity (30%+ cash on balance sheet). Proactive client engagement amid macro uncertainty.
- **Client Sentiment**: Tariffs causing pause in transactional activity, but clients diversified supply chains (e.g., moving manufacturing to Mexico). Project loans (e.g., affordable housing, renewables) remain on track.
- **Share Repurchase**: $1B authorization, to begin H2 2025, contingent on macro clarity.

**【CFO Financial Details】**
- **Net Interest Income**: $1.1B (+25% YoY), driven by $11B low-yielding securities repricing and C&amp;I loan growth (+$1.2B QoQ). Deposit beta 46% vs. 30% prior guidance.
- **Non-Interest Income**: $668M (+3% YoY), led by record investment banking fees ($175M, +3% QoQ) and commercial mortgage servicing.
- **Credit Quality**: NPLs down 9% QoQ, reserve build of $8M reflects macro caution. CET1 ratio 11.8%, marked CET1 9.9% (top peer group).
- **2025 Guidance**: 20% NII growth (structural tailwinds + $11B restructured assets), 5%+ fee growth, and CET1 target 9.5%-10%.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Macroeconomic Risks**: Base case avoids recession, but stress-tested scenarios show resilience. 20% NII target supported by restructured assets and C&amp;I growth.
- **Tariff Exposure**: Ongoing client-by-client review; top-down exposure deemed limited. 20% probability of recession factored into reserves.
- **Balance Sheet Flexibility**: 17% of $25B client capital raised retained on balance sheet. Neutral rate sensitivity allows opportunistic growth.
- **Share Repurchase Timing**: Dependent on macro clarity and Basel III finalization; no immediate need to restructure securities portfolio.
- **CRE Charge-Offs**: Q1 elevated due to two specific cases; overall portfolio improving.


KeyCorp (KEY)-17 Apr 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Adjusted EPS Beat**: $0.38 (vs. reported loss of $0.28), driven by 16% revenue growth and $54 million Scotiabank reinvestment benefit.
- **2025 Growth Targets**: 20% NII growth, 2.7%+ NIM, 10%+ operating leverage. Fee income to outpace expenses.
- **Credit Stability**: NPAs peaking, criticized loans down $500 million Q/Q. CET1 ratio at 12% (top quartile peers).
- **Tech & Talent Investment**: $900 million tech spend, 60 new wealth hires, and embedded banking expansion.
- **Market Position**: Outperforming peers in commercial loan growth, with 700+ middle market clients confident in 2025 outlook.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Fourth Quarter Performance**: Adjusted EPS of $0.38 (vs. reported loss of $0.28) driven by 16% year-over-year revenue growth. Net interest income (NII) and fees grew double digits, with NII exceeding $1 billion target.
- **Strategic Investments**: $900 million tech spend in 2025, focusing on cloud migration, wealth management, and embedded banking. Hired 170 wealth professionals, with plans for 60 more in 2025.
- **Credit Strength**: Nonperforming assets (NPAs) peaking, expected to decline by mid-2025. Criticized loans down $500 million Q/Q, net charge-offs down $40 million.
- **Market Expansion**: New teams in Chicago and Southern California driving commercial loan growth. Investment banking fees up 60% YoY, second-highest annual performance.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **2025 Outlook**: NII growth of 20% (vs. 2024), targeting NIM of 2.7%+ by Q4. Fee income expected to grow faster than expenses, with 10%+ overall operating leverage.
- **Balance Sheet Management**: Average loans down 2-5% YoY, consumer loans to decline $3 billion, offset by commercial growth. Deposit beta at 40% in Q4, expected to rise to mid-40s in 2025.
- **Capital Position**: CET1 ratio of 12% (top quartile peers), tangible book value up 17% YoY. Scotiabank reinvestments added $54 million to 2024 NII, $270 million+ in 2025.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **NII Growth Drivers**: Scotiabank reinvestments, fixed rate asset repricing, and disciplined deposit growth. 20%+ NII growth assumes 2 rate cuts, with upside from loan demand.
- **Loan Growth Strategy**: Focus on quality commercial loans, with pipelines doubling YoY. Utilization rate at 31% (vs. typical 35-36%), suggesting potential for outperformance.
- **Fee Income Mix**: 60% NII, 40% noninterest income. Wealth AUM at $61.4 billion, mass affluent segment adding 40,000 households in 2 years.
- **Risk Management**: CET1 ratio maintained above 10%, with flexibility to invest in growth while managing macro uncertainties.

Actual																0.12	0.16	0.41	0.56	0.61	0.72	0.65	0.64	0.45	0.54	0.55	0.38	0.333	0.27	0.29	0.25	0.22	0.25	0.3	0.38	0.33	0.35	0.41	0.43
Forecast																0.1805	0.0853	0.364	0.4266	0.4776	0.5356	0.5649	0.5629	0.4842	0.5087	0.5779	0.5479	0.4375	0.3176	0.2712	0.2293	0.2246	0.2452	0.2797	0.3289	0.3179	0.346	0.3814	0.3857	0.4122
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-33.52%	+87.57%	+12.64%	+31.27%	+27.72%	+34.43%	+15.06%	+13.70%	-7.06%	+6.15%	-4.83%	-30.64%	-23.89%	-14.99%	+6.93%	+9.03%	-2.05%	+1.96%	+7.26%	+15.54%	+3.81%	+1.16%	+7.50%	+11.49%	0.00%

Actual	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	1.47B	1.72B	1.69B	1.84B	1.75B	1.77B	1.82B	1.95B	1.70B	1.79B	1.89B	1.90B	1.71B	1.59B	1.57B	1.54B	1.53B	1.53B	683.00M	865.00M	1.77B	1.84B	1.90B	2.00B	--
Forecast	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	1.56B	1.59B	1.69B	1.72B	1.69B	1.73B	1.75B	1.80B	1.74B	1.78B	1.88B	1.93B	1.79B	1.62B	1.56B	1.53B	1.51B	1.52B	1.61B	1.74B	1.75B	1.80B	1.88B	1.96B	1.93B
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-5.95%	+7.67%	-0.20%	+7.56%	+3.73%	+2.71%	+4.13%	+7.97%	-2.63%	+0.83%	+0.25%	-1.60%	-4.27%	-1.82%	+0.66%	+0.48%	+1.54%	+0.21%	-57.52%	-50.27%	+1.56%	+2.06%	+0.61%	+2.32%	0.00%

KEY

KEY fundamentals

KEY Q1 2026 Earnings Preview

Earnings Call

You can ask Aime

KEY

KEY fundamentals

KEY Q1 2026 Earnings Preview

Earnings Call

KEY Earnings Call Summary for Q1/2026Upcoming10:00 AM on Apr 16, 2026

KEY Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20258:00 AM on Jan 20, 2026

KEY Earnings Call Summary for Q3/202510:00 AM on Oct 16, 2025

KEY Earnings Call Summary for Q2/20259:00 AM on Jul 22, 2025

KEY Earnings Call Summary for Q1/20258:00 AM on Apr 17, 2025

You can ask Aime