What is the market's earnings forecast for Flowers Foods next quarter?

What does Flowers Foods do and what are its main business segments?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Flowers Foods year over year?

What is Flowers Foods's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

What guidance did Flowers Foods's management provide for the next earnings period?

What were the key takeaways from Flowers Foods’s earnings call?

Did Flowers Foods beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What is Flowers Foods's gross profit margin?

- **Strategic Innovation Focus**: Redefining traditional loaf with better-for-you attributes despite 190bp gross margin pressure from Simple Mills and labor costs.
- **Category Outlook**: 2026 to see 'status quo with improvement potential' as economy stabilizes, offset by ongoing inflationary pressures.
- **Key Growth Driver**: Nature's Own small loaf category gaining 15pts unit share, #2 in segment with 85% growth.
- **Capital Allocation**: Reduced CapEx for deleveraging while maintaining dividend policy review amid 6% payout ratio.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- CEO highlights strategic focus on consumer demand, redefining traditional loaf bread with value and better-for-you attributes to counter declining category sales.
- Acknowledges short-term margin pressure from innovation investments but emphasizes long-term consumer alignment.
- Announces CFO Steve Kinsey's retirement after 18 years, noting his significant contributions to the company.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- CFO discusses capital allocation priorities, including reduced CapEx to focus on deleveraging while maintaining dividend policy review.
- Notes gross margin pressure from Simple Mills' 100% co-manufacturing costs and labor expenses from California labor conversion.
- Warns of ongoing inflationary pressures in 2026, particularly from wheat commodities and tariffs.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Consumer Sentiment & Category Recovery**: CEO expects category stabilization as economy strengthens, though 2026 will see status quo with potential improvement. Q3 saw stabilization in periods 8-9 but weakness in period 10 due to year-over-year storm comparisons.
- **Simple Mills Performance**: Strong integration with Flowers, with upcoming 2026 innovations. Q3 results in line with expectations despite margin dilution.
- **Foodservice & Private Label**: Foodservice volumes under economic pressure but profitable; private label weakness due to narrowed price gap with branded products.
- **Generational Shift in Bread Consumption**: Traditional loaf decline accelerating, with premium/differentiated segments growing. Nature's Own leading transformation with 15pt unit share gain in small loaf category.
- **Regional Brands Strategy**: Regional brands (e.g., Sunbeam, Merita) deemphasized due to retailer consolidation, though still important locally.

Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Strategic Shift to Growth Products**: Branded Retail sales rose to 67% of total, with organic and keto categories growing 3% and 4%, respectively.
- **Challenges in Traditional Bread**: Category volumes declined 3%, with traditional loaf down 6%, offset by gains in differentiated products (DKB +4%, Canyon +12%).
- **Financial Performance**: Q2 net sales $1.31B (1.5% YoY), adjusted EPS $0.30, with updated 2025 guidance of $1.00-$1.10 EPS (including Simple Mills).
- **Cost Management**: Tariff impact reduced to $15M-$18M (legacy) and $2M-$4M (Simple Mills), with cost-saving initiatives expected to benefit H2.
- **Initiatives for Growth**: Expanding into adjacent categories (e.g., Wonder cakes, DKB snacks), leveraging M&A (Simple Mills), and optimizing operations.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- J.T. Rieck welcomed participants and outlined the agenda, emphasizing forward-looking statements and risks. The live Q&A session was scheduled for 8:30 AM ET.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Shift to Higher-Margin Products**: Branded Retail sales rose to 67% of total sales (from 64% YoY), driven by acquisitions like Simple Mills and innovation in differentiated products (e.g., organic, keto).
- **Challenges in Traditional Bread Category**: Bread sales underperformed the food category (-3% vs. -1%), with traditional loaf volumes down 6% due to shifting consumer trends and competitive pressure.
- **Strategic Adjustments**: Focus on growth subsegments (e.g., DKB snacking, Wonder cakes) and adjacent categories (e.g., natural snacks via Simple Mills). Organic and keto categories grew 3% and 4%, respectively.
- **Team Alignment with Shareholder Value**: Performance-based compensation tied to revenue, EBITDA, and long-term metrics like ROIC and TSR.
- **Brand Strength**: Unit share gains in differentiated products (DKB +4%, Canyon +12%) and successful Wonder cake launch (+700bps unit share).
- **Cost Management**: Implementing savings initiatives to offset top-line pressure, with expected contributions in H2.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q2 2025 Results**: 
  - Net sales: $1.31B (1.5% YoY growth), driven by Simple Mills (+$61.4M) and branded growth, offset by volume declines in traditional loaf.
  - Gross margin: 48.8% (-110bps YoY) due to higher co-manufacturing costs and lower production volumes.
  - Adjusted EPS: $0.30 (down $0.06 YoY), impacted by Simple Mills integration costs.
- **Updated Guidance**: 
  - Net sales: $5.24B-$5.31B (including Simple Mills). Excluding Simple Mills: $5.02B-$5.08B.
  - Adjusted EBITDA: $512M-$538M (including Simple Mills). Excluding Simple Mills: $482M-$505M.
  - Adjusted EPS: $1.00-$1.10 (including Simple Mills). Excluding Simple Mills: $1.08-$1.17.
  - Tariff impact reduced to $15M-$18M (legacy) and $2M-$4M (Simple Mills), from prior estimates of $27M-$30M and $4M-$6M.
- **Liquidity**: $627M available under credit facilities; cash flow from operations up $98M YoY to $267M.

**【CEO Closing Remarks】**
- **Consumer Trends**: Shifting to value channels and perimeter items; higher-income consumers reducing bread purchases despite overall food spend growth.
- **Competitive Pressure**: New lower-priced products impacting traditional loaf; promotional activity focused on differentiated products.
- **Five Growth Initiatives**: 
  1. Innovate better-for-you and value-oriented products.
  2. Expand Wonder brand into cake and other categories.
  3. Use M&A to enter high-growth segments (e.g., natural snacks).
  4. Optimize supply chain and distribution.
  5. Stabilize cake business through Wonder brand extension.
- **Near-Term Focus**: Balancing cost savings with portfolio shifts to drive long-term growth.

Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Q2 2025 Pre Recorded Earnings Call Transcript

- **Market Resilience Despite Challenges**: Maintained unit share in a declining category, with innovation driving differentiation in traditional bread segments.
- **Tariff Impact on Margins**: EBITDA margin guidance reduced by 30-40 bps due to tariffs on key ingredients, with conservative worst-case scenario assumptions.
- **Promotion Strategy Shift**: Increased promotional activity for differentiated brands, but focused on trial rather than volume to preserve brand value.
- **Innovation Growth**: Simple Mills and snacking businesses outperforming expectations, with smaller loaf formats showing early success in addressing evolving consumer needs.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Despite challenging market conditions, the company maintained unit share in a category facing unexpected declines. Management emphasized the importance of portfolio strategy and brand strength, particularly in on-trend innovation and faster-growing adjacencies.
- Key initiatives include differentiation in traditional bread segments, smart promotion to drive trial, and investment in health and wellness offerings like Dave's Killer Bread and Simple Mills.
- CEO expressed confidence in long-term financial targets but acknowledged the need for patience due to macroeconomic headwinds.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- EBITDA margin guidance revised down by 30-40 basis points, primarily driven by category trends and tariffs. Gross margin impacted by input costs, while SD&A expenses were managed through cost-saving measures.
- Tariff impact includes 10% tariffs on key ingredients (e.g., sugar, wheat, palm oil) from non-NAFTA countries, with potential escalation to 100% if trade policies remain unchanged.
- Foodservice business saw margin improvement despite overall category weakness, with focus on higher-margin contracts.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
1. **Core Bread Category Challenges**: Traditional white bread segments are squeezed by premiumization and value-seeking behavior. Management plans to differentiate through innovation and brand investment, with early wins in smaller loaf formats (e.g., Wonder mini half loaf).
2. **Promotion Strategy Shift**: Increased promotional activity for differentiated brands (e.g., Dave's Killer Bread) in Q1, but cautious approach to avoid devaluing the category. Focus on using promotions for trial rather than volume.
3. **Tariff Risk Management**: Conservative guidance assumes worst-case tariff scenarios, with potential upside if trade policies ease. Key impacted ingredients include cocoa, gluten, and palm oil from China and other non-NAFTA countries.
4. **Private Label and Foodservice**: Private label unit share stabilized, but total volume remains down. Foodservice business focuses on higher-margin contracts, offsetting overall category weakness.
5. **Innovation Momentum**: Simple Mills and snacking businesses performing ahead of expectations, with distribution gains and ACV expansion. Smaller loaf SKUs show early positive trends in addressing smaller households and value-oriented consumers.

Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **2024 Growth Drivers**: Branded bread innovation (e.g., DKB, Wonder snack cakes) offset sweet baked goods weakness. Full-year revenue growth driven by premium brands.
- **2025 Outlook**: Cautious 1% top-line growth (excluding 53rd week) with focus on mix-driven gains. Risks include tariffs, commodities, and weak consumer demand.
- **Strategic Moves**: GLP-1 drug consumer research informs portfolio shift to healthier products. Wonder snack launch targets weak cake category with iconic brand power.
- **Cost Pressures**: California transition and lease expenses expected to weigh on EPS. H2 input cost inflation anticipated.


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- **2024 Performance Highlights**: Achieved dollar and unit growth in branded bread through innovation and market execution. Wafer home business saw improved sales and margins despite strategic exits. Key challenge: significant weakness in sweet baked goods category.
- **2025 Outlook**: Cautious guidance due to macroeconomic volatility, tariffs, commodities, and weak consumer demand. Long-term optimism driven by brand strength, innovation (e.g., Simple Mills), and portfolio strategy.
- **Strategic Initiatives**: New product launches (e.g., Wonder snack cakes), space gains for Dave's Killer Bread, and GLP-1 drug consumer research to adapt portfolio for health trends.

**【CFO Financial Insights】**
- **2024 Financials**: Full-year revenue growth driven by premium brands and cost savings. Gross margin improvements offset by elevated promotional activity.
- **2025 Guidance**: Flat to modest top-line growth (1% excluding 53rd week) with focus on mix-driven gains. SD&A pressures from California transition and lease expenses expected to weigh on EPS.
- **Commodity & Tariff Risks**: Input cost inflation anticipated in H2. Tariffs on Canadian/Mexican ingredients could impact margins.

**【Q&A Key Themes】**
1. **Dave's Killer Bread (DKB) Performance**: Despite short-term noise, DKB household penetration hit record levels. New SKUs and space gains in 2025 expected to drive growth.
2. **GLP-1 Drug Impact**: Research suggests consumers on GLP-1 drugs may revert to center-store items. Portfolio shift to healthier, differentiated products (e.g., Simple Mills) positions company to capitalize.
3. **Wonder Snack Launch**: National rollout of Wonder snack cakes in Q2 aims to stabilize weak cake category. Leveraging Wonder's iconic brand and warehouse distribution model.
4. **Promotional Environment**: Competitors' aggressive promotions have limited incremental lift. Flower maintains disciplined promotional strategy, focusing on brand strength and innovation.
5. **California Transition**: Shift to company-owned model increases costs but offers control over distribution and display. Long-term aim to offset expenses through enhanced sales execution.


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