What is the market's earnings forecast for Assured Guaranty next quarter?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Assured Guaranty year over year?

What does Assured Guaranty do and what are its main business segments?

What were the key takeaways from Assured Guaranty’s earnings call?

What is Assured Guaranty's gross profit margin?

What were the key takeaways from Assured Guaranty's earnings call?

What is Assured Guaranty's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

What guidance did Assured Guaranty's management provide for the next earnings period?

- **Record Financial Performance**: 2025 adjusted operating income up 28% to $9.08 per share, driven by $286 million PVP and 13% IRR in alternative investments.
- **Strategic Expansion**: Acquired Assured Life Re to enter annuity reinsurance, with 240% YoY growth in secondary market insured par.
- **Capital Return**: 12% dividend increase and $500 million share buyback, with $204 million remaining authorization.
- **Risk Management**: Resolved $103 million Lehman Brothers gain and reduced troubled assets by $400 million through loss mitigation.
- **2026 Outlook**: Strong pipeline in U.S. public finance and global structured finance, with MYGA reinsurance as new growth driver.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Record Financial Metrics**: Ended 2025 with adjusted book value of $186.43 per share, up 14% year-over-year, and adjusted operating income of $9.08 per share, a 28% increase from 2024.
- **New Business Growth**: Generated $286 million in PVP, driven by U.S. public finance (65% of total) and secondary market expansion (240% YoY growth to $2 billion in insured par).
- **Capital Management**: Repurchased 12% of shares ($500 million) and increased quarterly dividend by 12%, marking 14 consecutive years of dividend growth.
- **Strategic Acquisitions**: Launched Assured Life Reinsurance to enter annuity reinsurance, with initial focus on MYGAs and pension risk transfer.
- **Alternative Investments**: Achieved 13% IRR since inception, with $1 billion in fair value as of Q4 2025.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q4 2025 Financials**: Adjusted operating income of $109 million ($2.32 per share), up 83% YoY, driven by $23 million gain from loss mitigation and $47 million from alternative investments.
- **Full Year 2025 Results**: $445 million in adjusted operating income ($9.08 per share), including $103 million gain from Lehman Brothers resolution and $160 million from alternative investments.
- **Capital Deployment**: Maintained $130 million holding company liquidity and $204 million remaining buyback authorization.
- **Annuity Reinsurance**: Assured Life Re is actively pursuing transactions, with potential for significant future earnings diversification.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Credit Mix**: Q4 saw return of BBB-rated transactions, with 2026 pipeline indicating sustained demand for higher credit quality deals.
- **U.K. Exposures**: Southern Water upgraded to investment-grade; Thames Water engagement with U.K. government expected to resolve soon. Brightline remains confident in subordination structure and recovery prospects.
- **Alternative Investments**: CLO portfolio marked to market, with no material impact from recent credit stress.
- **Capital Allocation**: Annuity reinsurance growth and share buybacks are independent opportunities, with capital management flexibility to optimize returns.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Financials**: Adjusted book value per share at $181.37, up 17% YoY in operating income. 
- **U.S. Public Finance Dominance**: 63% market share, $7.9B par insured in Q3 vs. $5.4B in 2024. 
- **Secondary Market Growth**: PVP of $32M (vs. $5M in 2024), 7% of 2025 par written. 
- **Alternative Investment Success**: 13% IRR, $9M CLO equity gains. 
- **Strategic Expansion**: $330M share buyback, data center and subscription finance opportunities. 
- **Risk Mitigation Wins**: $100M+ recovery, $10M-$15M asset sale gain.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Record Financials**: Adjusted book value per share reached $181.37, with year-to-date adjusted operating income of $6.77 per share, up 17% YoY. 
- **Production Growth**: Q3 PVP of $91M, 44% higher than Q3 2024, driven by U.S. public finance ($7.9B par insured vs. $5.4B in Q3 2024). 
- **Strategic Initiatives**: $100M share repurchase authorization added, bringing total to $330M. Expansion into subscription finance and data center risk mitigation explored.

**【COO Business Update】**
- **U.S. Public Finance Dominance**: 63% market share in primary market, with 14 transactions >$100M in Q3 (e.g., MA Development Agency $650M, NYC JFK $600M). Secondary market PVP grew to $32M (vs. $5M in 2024). 
- **Non-U.S. & Structured Finance**: $5M Q3 PVP in non-U.S. (UK/EU infrastructure), $8M in global structured finance (Australia core lending). Shift to 5-year duration transactions vs. prior 10-year average. 
- **Market Opportunity**: $4T municipal bonds outstanding, 90% uninsured, with 7% of 2025 par written in secondary market.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Adjusted Operating Income**: $124M ($2.57/share) vs. $130M ($2.42/share) in Q3 2024, driven by investment gains and RMBS recoveries. 
- **Investment Portfolio Performance**: Alternative investments delivered 13% IRR, with $9M CLO equity gains and $4M higher-yielding corporate securities. 
- **Capital Management**: $118M share buybacks in Q3, $16M dividends, $272M liquidity post $250M stock redemption. 
- **Loss Mitigation Success**: $100M+ recovery on below-investment-grade credit, $10M-$15M gain expected from Q3 asset sale.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Investment Strategy**: Balancing yield and safety, with focus on higher-yielding corporates and CLO equity. 
- **Brightline Risk**: Senior capital stack position with $100M+ equity/subordinated debt buffer; operational challenges expected to resolve. 
- **2026 Pipeline**: U.S. public finance secondary market expansion, global structured finance repeatable transactions, data center risk mitigation exploration. 
- **PREPA Exposure**: Legal rights defended; 3 rescinded transactions reflect full recovery potential. 
- **Data Center Expansion**: Actively evaluating CapEx opportunities, similar to LNG and airport infrastructure plays.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Financial Health**: Adjusted book value and equity per share at all-time highs; $296M share buybacks completed year-to-date.
- **Market Leadership**: 30%+ YoY growth in U.S. municipal insured par; 32% of Q2 business in AA-rated bonds.
- ** finance PVP +140%Global Expansion**: Non-U.S. public YoY; first French infrastructure deal closed.
- **Risk Management**: 90%+ of loss reserves never result in payouts; $3.9B deferred premium revenue provides earnings visibility.
- **Strategic Initiatives**: $500M+ share repurchase program; $250M stock redemption approved for U.S. subsidiary.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q2 2025: Adjusted book value per share ($176.95) and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share ($120.11) reached record highs.
- 2025 share repurchase target: $500M (achieved $296M as of August 6, 2025); Board authorized additional $300M repurchases.
- Strategic priorities: U.S. municipal bond leadership, global infrastructure expansion, and structured finance growth.
- Credit ratings: S&P affirmed AA financial strength rating; KBRA reaffirmed AA+ with stable outlook.

**【COO Production Results】**
- U.S. public finance: 30% YoY increase in primary market insured par ($14.1B) and 150%+ YoY secondary market par ($900M), driven by higher premium rates.
- 32% of insured par in Q2 was AA-rated (vs. 20%+ historical average), reflecting risk-averse issuer behavior.
- Non-U.S. public finance: $14M PVP in Q2 (UK, Spain, France infrastructure deals).
- Structured finance: $15M PVP, with subscription finance transactions expected to renew/renew.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q2 2025: Adjusted operating income $50M ($1.01/share) vs. $80M ($1.44/share) in Q2 2024.
- Net earned premiums +$5M (new large deals, supplemental premiums).
- Net investment income +$8M (CLO equity tranches, higher-yielding short-term investments).
- Loss expense $36M (UK utility, U.S. healthcare claims); 90%+ of reserves never result in payouts.
- Deferred premium revenue: $3.9B (future earnings stream).

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- Interest rates: Lower rates may increase issuer activity but compress premium rates; secondary market offers higher margins.
- Puerto Rico: $117M contingent value instruments performing well; new Board may accelerate PREPA restructuring.
- Credit quality: 47% of BIG (below investment grade) loss reserves have no loss history; Westchester Medical Center downgrade reflects liquidity concerns, not operational failure.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Q1 Earnings**: $3.18 EPS vs. $1.96 prior year, driven by $103M litigation gain and alternative investments (13% IRR).
- **Market Leadership**: 64% US public finance market share, $376M secondary market par (vs. full-year 2024 total).
- **Global Expansion**: First French infrastructure guaranty and $59M alternative investment income highlight growth strategy.
- **Risk Management**: 65% of municipal transactions rated AA/A; $48M losses reflect PREPA delay and UK utility exposures.
- **Capital Returns**: $120M buybacks and $18M dividends, with liquidity at $257M.


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 adjusted operating income per share: $3.18 (vs. $1.96 in Q1 2024), driven by a $103M pretax gain from Lehman Brothers litigation.
- Key valuation metrics at record highs: adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share ($117.40), adjusted book value ($172.79), and shareholders' equity per share ($112.80).
- New business production: $39M PVP, with 65% from US public finance (e.g., Indiana Municipal Power, Oklahoma Turnpike Authority) and 35% from global structured finance/non-US public finance.
- Strategic focus on fee-based earnings from 30% stake in Sound Point ($13M Q1 contribution) and alternative investments (13% annualized IRR since inception).

**【COO Production Details】**
- US public finance dominance: 64% market share in primary insured par ($4.7B vs. $3.8B in Q1 2024), 58% transaction count (222 vs. 152 in Q1 2024).
- Secondary market surge: $376M insured par in Q1 2025 (vs. full-year 2024 total), driven by risk management needs amid volatility.
- Global expansion: first primary financial guaranty in France via XpFibre transaction, signaling European growth strategy.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- GAAP net income: $162M (Q1 2025) vs. $113M (Q1 2024), with $82M after-tax gain from litigation.
- Economic loss development: $48M (excluding litigation), primarily from PREPA delay and UK utility exposures.
- Investment performance: $90M net investment income (vs. $86M in Q1 2024), with alternative investments generating $59M (highest quarterly level).
- Capital returns: $120M share buybacks (1.3M shares) and $18M dividends, with $257M holding company liquidity.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- UK water risks: majority of cases expected to incur no loss due to senior creditor position; timeline for resolution 6-12 months.
- Tariffs impact: market volatility could increase demand for guaranty; similar to COVID-era dislocation opportunities.
- Secondary market competition: only one smaller competitor; AG leads with technology-enabled execution (e.g., real-time pricing tools).
- Asset Management performance: Q1 results reflect Sound Point's back-end loaded fee structure; expect normalization in subsequent quarters.


Assured Guaranty (AGO)-9 May 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Record Financial Performance**: 2024 Adjusted EPS $7.10 (+12%), book value $170.12/share (+8%).
- **Shareholder Returns**: $500M buybacks (11% shares retired), 20% YTD stock price growth.
- **Market Leadership**: 61% US Public Finance share, $24B insured par (highest since 2010).
- **Profitability Expansion**: 13% IRR on alternatives, targeting 15%+ ROE with structured finance growth.
- **Key Wins**: $103M Lehman gain Q1 2025, no reserves needed for UK water utilities.
- **Risk Management**: 98%+ healthcare debt coverage, PREPA creditor rights affirmed.


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- 2024 Adjusted Operating Income per Share: $7.10, up 12% YoY.
- Record Adjusted Book Value per Share: $170.12 (up 8% YoY).
- Share Repurchases: $500M (11% of outstanding shares), driving 20% YTD stock price growth to $90.01.
- New Business Production: $400M+ PVP for 2nd straight year, with US Public Finance at $270M (highest since 2020).
- Global Expansion: Offices opened in Australia and Singapore; 61% Q4 US Public Finance market share.
- PREPA Litigation: $103M pre-tax gain recognized Q1 2025 from Lehman Brothers judgment.

**【COO Business Production Update】**
- US Public Finance: 
  - $270M PVP (vs. $200M 2023), 58% market share of insured par.
  - $24B insured par (highest since 2010), 61% Q4 share.
  - 800+ transactions, including $1.1B Brightline Rail Deal.
- Non-US Public Finance: $67M PVP, UK utility renewals and Australia expansion.
- Structured Finance: $65M PVP, 37% YoY growth in insured par.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- Q4 2024 Adjusted Operating Income: $66M ($1.27/share) vs. $338M ($5.75/share) Q4 2023 (tax benefits driven prior year).
- Insurance Segment: $98M vs. $339M (prior year tax benefits).
- Investment Income: $93M Q4, 13% IRR on alternative investments.
- Capital Management: $502M share buybacks, $400M special dividends, $352M cash on hand.
- 2024 ROE: 12.5%, targeting 15%+ with mix shift to higher-margin businesses.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- UK Water Risk: Thames Water appeal expected Q4 2025, no reserves needed. Southern Water similarly optimistic.
- Healthcare Exposure: Elevated labor costs, but 98%+ debt service coverage on insured hospitals.
- Non-US Structured Finance: Australia core lending deals driving 12-18% ROE, vs. 8-10% public finance.
- PREPA Resolution: Secured creditor rights affirmed, mediation ongoing; FOMB appeal denied.
- Interest Rate Impact: AOCI gap ($6M) temporary, Lehman gain adds $2/share Q1 2025.


Actual									0.36	1.36	0.58	0.69	0.55	1.59	0.45	3.88	1.34	0.46	2.11	0.22	1.12	0.6	3.42	5.75	1.96	1.44	2.42	1.27	3.18	1.01	2.57	2.32
Forecast									0.76	0.6682	0.6655	0.6149	0.6009	0.7591	0.844	0.7893	0.8254	0.8875	0.8416	0.9631	1.0175	1.0828	1.1244	1.1829	1.3199	1.3921	1.337	1.3647	2.6666	1.4792	1.4147	1.4532
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-52.63%	+103.53%	-12.85%	+12.21%	-8.47%	+109.46%	-46.68%	+391.57%	+62.35%	-48.17%	+150.71%	-77.16%	+10.07%	-44.59%	+204.16%	+386.09%	+48.50%	+3.44%	+81.00%	-6.94%	+19.25%	-31.72%	+81.66%	+59.65%

AGO

AGO fundamentals

AGO Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

You can ask Aime

AGO

AGO fundamentals

AGO Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

AGO Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20258:00 AM on Feb 27, 2026

AGO Earnings Call Summary for Q3/20258:00 AM on Nov 7, 2025

AGO Earnings Call Summary for Q2/20258:00 AM on Aug 8, 2025

AGO Earnings Call Summary for Q1/20258:00 AM on May 9, 2025

AGO Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20248:00 AM on Feb 28, 2025

You can ask Aime