What is the market's earnings forecast for Teradyne next quarter?

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What were the key takeaways from Teradyne’s earnings call?

What were the key takeaways from Teradyne's earnings call?

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Did Teradyne beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

- **AI-Driven Growth**: Q4 AI revenue >60%, Q1 2026 target >70%, with compute TAM up 90% YoY.
- **Target Model Ambition**: $6B revenue (2x 2025) and $11 EPS (2.5x 2025), supported by 59-61% gross margin.
- **Q1 2026 Outlook**: $1.15-1.25B revenue (11% QoQ growth), $1.89-2.25 EPS.
- **Strategic Wins**: 5% robotics revenue from e-commerce, HBM/DRAM share gains, and merchant GPU qualification in H2 2026.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Amy McAndrews outlined the agenda, including Q4 2025 results, Q1 2026 outlook, and the new target earnings model. She emphasized the availability of slides and scripts on the investor website and reminded listeners of forward-looking statement disclaimers.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q4 2025 Results**: Revenue grew 41% sequentially, with AI-driven revenue increasing from 40-50% in Q3 to over 60% in Q4. Q1 2026 AI-driven revenue is expected to exceed 70%.
- **Business Group Growth**: 
  - **Semiconductor Test**: 19% YoY growth, driven by compute and memory. VIP compute market share maintained at ~50%.
  - **Product Test**: 8% YoY growth, supported by defense/aerospace and Quantifi Photonics integration.
  - **Robotics**: 19% QoQ growth, with 5% revenue from a large e-commerce customer.
- **Target Earnings Model**: At an ATE TAM of $12-14 billion, Teradyne aims for $6 billion revenue (2x 2025) and $9.50-11 EPS (2.5x 2025 EPS), driven by compute, memory, and robotics growth.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q4 2025 Financials**: 
  - Revenue: $1.83 billion (above high-end guidance)
  - Non-GAAP EPS: $1.80 (above high-end guidance)
  - Gross Margin: 57.2% (aligned with guidance)
  - Free Cash Flow: $219 million
- **Q1 2026 Outlook**: 
  - Revenue: $1.15-1.25 billion (11% growth from Q4)
  - Non-GAAP EPS: $1.89-2.25
  - Gross Margin: 58.5-59.5%
- **Target Model Metrics**: 59-61% gross margin, 27-29% OpEx as a % of revenue, and 30-34% operating profit margin.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Near-Term Visibility**: Q1 2026 revenue reflects strong backlog, but lumpiness in compute/memory demand may impact second-half visibility.
- **Share Gain Strategy**: Expected share gains in compute (VIP, HBM/DRAM) and memory, with mobile recovery but no return to 2021 peak.
- **GPU Test Opportunity**: Merchant GPU qualification expected in H2 2026, with potential for single-digit share in a concentrated market.
- **Robotics Growth**: Robotics revenue to triple in 2026, targeting breakeven in 2026 with contributions from e-commerce and physical AI.

Teradyne, Inc.(TER)-20260203-2025 Q4 Earnings call transcript

- **Q3 Growth Accelerates**: 18% sequential revenue growth to $769M, driven by AI compute (UltraFLEXplus) and memory test (HBM4, DRAM).
- **Q4 Guidance Strong**: $920M-$1B sales, 2/3 from compute/networking, 1/3 from memory. Non-GAAP EPS $1.20-$1.46.
- **AI Test Intensity Rising**: Chiplet designs and data center reliability driving higher test requirements for high-performance compute.
- **Memory Resilience**: Despite 15% YoY decline, memory revenue sustained at 2024 levels due to HBM upgrades and SSD demand.
- **Long-Term AI Focus**: 2026+ growth driven by AI in compute, memory, and power ICs, with OpEx targeting 50% of revenue growth.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q3 revenue grew 18% sequentially to $769 million, driven by AI demand in semiconductor test. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.85, up 49% from Q2.
- UltraFLEXplus systems saw strong demand for AI compute and networking, with Q3 memory test revenue doubling to $128 million (75% DRAM, 25% flash).
- Robotics revenue remained flat at $75 million, but AI-related products accounted for 8% of sales (up from 6% in Q2).
- Q4 guidance: Sales $920M-$1B, non-GAAP EPS $1.20-$1.46, with 2/3 of upside from compute/networking, 1/3 from memory.
- Long-term focus on AI-driven growth in compute, memory, and power ICs, with OpEx targeting 50% of revenue growth rate.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q3 non-GAAP gross margin 58.5%, above guidance due to favorable mix. OpEx $293M (+14% YoY) driven by R&D and AI-related investments.
- Q4 gross margin expected 57-58%, with one-time supply costs to meet accelerated demand. OpEx as % of sales 31-33%.
- Free cash flow $2M (impacted by receivables and inventory growth). Share buybacks $246M in Q3, total returns $575M YTD.
- Balance sheet strategy: Maintain $400M cash, leverage credit lines for growth.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- Q4 upside ($150M vs. consensus) driven by compute (2/3) and memory (1/3), with HBM4 ramp and VIP projects.
- Test intensity for high-performance compute expected to increase due to chiplet designs and data center reliability requirements.
- Memory TAM contraction (low double digits) but Teradyne expects 2024-level revenue due to HBM4 upgrades and SSD demand.
- Robotics recovery slower than expected, but service revenue growing (14% of Q3 sales vs. 12% in Q2).
- 2026 outlook: AI and verticalization as primary growth drivers, with compute and memory leading the way.

Teradyne, Inc. (TER) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **AI-Driven Growth**: Q2 revenue of $652M exceeded expectations, with AI compute in SOC and Memory driving 2025 second-half dominance.
- **Strategic Wins**: HBM4 post-stack singulated die win and Quantifi Photonics acquisition expand AI test capabilities.
- **Robotics Expansion**: 9% QoQ growth in Robotics, with U.S. manufacturing supporting a 2026 growth driver.
- **Financial Strength**: Non-GAAP EPS of $0.57, $132M free cash flow, and $316M returned to shareholders.
- **2026 Outlook**: Mobile complexity and merchant GPU testing could drive inflection, with Robotics restructuring poised for 2026 impact.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth and AI Dominance**: Q2 revenue of $652M exceeded expectations, driven by AI compute in SOC and Memory. AI compute is expected to dominate semi-test revenue in the second half, with SOC and Memory contributing the majority.
- **New Opportunities and Acquisitions**: Secured an HBM4 post-stack singulated die win, expanding Memory TAM. Acquired Quantifi Photonics to strengthen silicon photonics test capabilities, accelerating AI compute growth.
- **Robotics Expansion**: Robotics revenue grew 9% QoQ to $75M, despite weak market conditions. A new U.S. manufacturing facility will support a large customer opportunity, expected to be a significant 2026 growth driver.
- **Mobile and Industrial Trends**: Mobile demand is modest for 2025, with potential inflection in 2026 due to 2nm GAA and AI applications. Industrial and automotive demand remains stable at low levels, with long-term growth driven by electrification.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q2 Financials**: Non-GAAP EPS of $0.57 and gross margin of 57.3% beat expectations. Semi-test revenue ($492M) led by SOC ($397M), with Memory ($61M) lower due to shipment timing.
- **Q3 Guidance**: Sales expected between $710M-$770M, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.69-$0.87. Gross margin of 56.5%-57.5% reflects scaling efficiencies. Free cash flow of $132M in Q2, with $316M returned to shareholders via buybacks and dividends.
- **Long-Term Outlook**: Multiyear investments in AI testing are yielding new opportunities, with confidence in long-term growth drivers of AI, verticalization, and electrification.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **AI Compute Growth**: Q3 and Q4 AI-related revenue will be significant, with demand driven by customer program ramps. 2026 could see inflection in mobile complexity and AI compute share in merchant GPUs.
- **Robotics Strategy**: Restructuring sales and service teams is expected to drive 2026 growth. New U.S. manufacturing supports a large customer, with potential for broader market impact.
- **Memory and HBM**: HBM4 test wins expand Memory TAM, with DRAM dominating 2025. Post-stack singulated die testing is a new growth driver.
- **GPU Testing**: Competing for merchant GPU test share with higher throughput and reliability, with modest 2026 impact and potential for 2027 growth.


Teradyne, Inc. (TER) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q1 Revenue Beats Guidance**: $686 million (+15% YoY), driven by Semi Test (80% of revenue) and AI accelerator test wins.
- **Robotics Milestone**: Largest order in history ($XX million) from automotive customer for MiR AMRs and UR cobots.
- **Gross Margin Outlook**: Q2 56.5-57.5% (down 300bps YoY), but long-term target 59-60% unchanged.
- **Tariff Impact**: Minimal direct cost (~$0.02 EPS in Q2), but end-market demand pullouts a key risk.
- **HBM4 Win**: First DRAM wafer sort win with major customer, signaling expansion into post-stack testing.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q1 Revenue Performance**: Delivered $686 million, at the high end of guidance, driven by Semi Test (543 million) and Compute growth. Mobile SOC demand was transitory, while AI accelerator test revenue showed early traction.
- **AI and Robotics Investments**: Highlighted progress in silicon photonics test with the Quantifi Photonics acquisition expected to close in Q2. Robotics division secured largest order in history from an automotive manufacturer, including MiR 1200 AMRs and UR cobots.
- **Gross Margin Outlook**: Q2 gross margin expected to decline to 56.5-57.5% due to product mix and lower volume, but long-term target remains 59-60%.
- **Tariff Impact**: Minimal direct impact on Teradyne's business model, but concerns over end-market demand pullouts in auto and industrial segments.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q1 Financials**: Non-GAAP EPS of $0.75 (vs. $0.68 guidance), gross margin 60.6% (up 140bps vs. Q4 2024). Semi Test (80% of revenue) outperformed, while Robotics operating loss narrowed to $22 million.
- **Q2 Guidance**: Revenue $610-680 million, gross margin 56.5-57.5%, OpEx 40.5-44.5% of sales. Free cash flow $98 million, with $157 million share buybacks.
- **Tariff Costs**: Q2 impact ~$0.02 EPS, primarily passed through to customers. Long-term visibility limited due to trade policy uncertainty.
- **Robotics Restructuring**: Breakeven reduced to $365 million (from $440 million), with $11 million Q1 restructuring costs.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Tariff Dynamics**: Customers in auto/industrial delaying orders; no pull-ins for mobile. Robotics orders unaffected by tariffs.
- **HBM4 Win**: First DRAM wafer sort win with a major customer, expected to ship H2 2025. Focus on post-stack performance testing.
- **SLT Growth**: AI accelerator test revenue in Q1, with hyperscaler customer acceptance. 2nm mobile transition may drive 2026 demand.
- **Compute Market**: No pushouts seen; AI diffusion rule changes could impact HPC. Q2 Memory revenue expected to decline as HBM3E digestions continue.
- **Robotics TAM**: Semiconductor vertical automation (e.g., FOP loading) generating single-digit million revenue in Q1, with potential for growth as AI adoption accelerates.

Teradyne (TER)-29 Apr 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **VIP Dominance**: 50% market share in $300M Compute VIP TAM in 2024, targeting $600M-$800M by 2026. AI Compute and Edge AI test insertions fuel growth.
- **Robust Cash Flow**: $470M free cash flow in 2024, with $275M returned via buybacks and dividends. 2025 Q1 guidance: $660-$700M revenue, $0.58-$0.68 EPS.
- **Power Semiconductor Expansion**: Strategic Infineon partnership accelerates SiC/GaN test solutions for EV and renewable energy markets.
- **Robotics Restructuring**: 2025 breakeven at $365M, targeting 10%+ growth via unified go-to-market and AI-enabled SAM expansion.
- **Midterm Ambition**: 2028 target of $4.5B-$5.5B revenue, $7-$9.50 EPS, driven by 12%-17% Test CAGR and 18%-24% Robotics CAGR.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **2024 Performance Highlights**: Revenue grew 5% YoY to $2.82 billion (8% excluding DIS divestiture), with SOC and Memory revenue up 17% YoY. Non-GAAP EPS increased 10% to $3.22, driven by AI Compute demand and VIP (Vertically Integrated Producer) market share gains. Free cash flow reached $470 million.
- **VIP Market Leadership**: Achieved 50% market share in the $300 million Compute VIP TAM in 2024, targeting $600 million-$800 million by 2026. Test insertions for AI Compute systems and Edge AI applications are key growth drivers.
- **Strategic Initiatives**: 
  - **Power Semiconductor Partnership**: Acquired Infineon's internal tester team to accelerate roadmaps for SiC and GaN devices, targeting EV and renewable energy markets.
  - **Robotics Restructuring**: Consolidated UR and MiR go-to-market functions to improve efficiency, reducing breakeven revenue from $440 million to $365 million in 2025.
- **2025 Outlook**: SOC TAM expected to grow 7% YoY to $4.9 billion, with low-single-digit share gains. Memory TAM flattish YoY due to HBM digestion, but DRAM demand for AI servers remains strong.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q4 2024 Results**: Revenue $753 million (high end of guidance), Non-GAAP EPS $0.95. Semi Test revenue $561 million (82% of total), driven by SOC ($429 million) and Memory ($112 million). Robotics revenue $98 million, underperforming due to weak industrial spending.
- **Full Year 2024**: Free cash flow $474 million, returning 58% ($275 million) via buybacks and dividends. Gross margin 58.6%, OpEx $1.08 billion (20.4% of revenue). 2025 guidance: Revenue $660-$700 million (Q1), Non-GAAP EPS $0.58-$0.68.
- **Midterm Model (2028)**: Target $4.5-$5.5 billion revenue, $7-$9.50 Non-GAAP EPS. Test revenue CAGR 12%-17%, Robotics CAGR 18%-24%. Gross margin 59%-60%, OpEx 28%-31% of sales.

**【Key Q&A Insights】**
- **VIP Share Sustainability**: 50% share maintained via product differentiation, relationships with hyperscalers, and design service providers. New customer logos expected in 2025-26.
- **Robotics Plan B**: No plans to exit Industrial Automation. Restructuring aims to deliver 10%+ growth in 2025, with breakeven at $365 million. Focus on AI-enabled SAM expansion and channel growth.
- **HBM Test Market**: 2025 digestion phase, but DRAM (LPDDR/DDR) demand for AI servers supports Memory share gains. HBM TAM recovery expected in 2026.
- **Compute TAM Growth**: 2025 Compute TAM $2.3 billion (vs $2.2 billion in 2024), driven by VIPs and networking ASICs. Experience curve limits sequential growth, but share gains offset TAM flattening.


Teradyne, Inc. (TER) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Teradyne, Inc. (TER) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Teradyne, Inc. (TER) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Teradyne (TER)-25 Apr 24-2024 Q1 Earnings call transcript

Teradyne (TER)-31 Jan 24-2023 Q4 Earnings call transcript

Teradyne (TER)-26 Oct 23-2023 Q3 Earnings call transcript

Teradyne (TER)-27 Jul 23-2023 Q2 Earnings call transcript

Teradyne (TER)-27 Apr 23-2023 Q1 Earnings call transcript

Teradyne (TER)-26 Jan 23-2022 Q4 Earnings call transcript

Teradyne (TER)-26 Oct 22-2022 Q3 Earnings call transcript

Teradyne (TER)-27 Jul 22-2022 Q2 Earnings call transcript

Teradyne (TER)-27 Apr 22-2022 Q1 Earnings call transcript

Teradyne (TER)-27 Jan 22-2021 Q4 Earnings call transcript

Teradyne (TER)-27 Oct 21-2021 Q3 Earnings call transcript

- **Revenue Surge**: Q1 Semi Test up 9%, IA up 33%, with SOC test market forecasted at $4.2 billion (+16% YoY). IA group targeting 30%+ growth.
- **Compute Growth**: SOC compute segment expected to double YoY, driven by Arm-based devices and high-complexity nodes. Automotive test revenue up 90% YoY.
- **Supply Chain Challenges**: Material shortages, 3-4 month lead times, but Q2 shipments booked out. Full-year OpEx growth 17-19% YoY.
- **IA Momentum**: UR and MiR leading IA growth, with China IA sales doubling YoY. AutoGuide reset to focus on core accounts.
- **WFE-Lag Impact**: Tester demand lags WFE by ~12-15 months, with 2021 WFE of $75 billion+ supporting growth. Wafer test share may dip IA group to 35-38%.
- **Financial Strength**: Q1 non-GAAP EPS $1.11, gross margin 59.1%. Q2 guidance: $1.01-1.09 billion in sales, EPS $1.62-1.83.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q1 sales of $782 million, up 9% YoY in Semi Test and 33% YoY in Industrial Automation (IA). SOC test market expected to grow 16% YoY to $4.2 billion, with Teradyne targeting 50% share. Memory test market forecasted at $1.0 billion, up 5% YoY. IA group on track for 30%+ revenue growth.
- **Market Trends**: Strong demand in automotive, industrial, compute, and storage. UltraFLEX platforms align with high-complexity test needs. China IA sales doubled YoY, driven by UR and MiR robots. AutoGuide reset to focus on core accounts and ecosystem integration.
- **Strategic Initiatives**: Investing in manufacturing capacity, redundant suppliers, and global distribution. IA ecosystem expanded to 430+ apps, shortening deployment times. Recognized retiring Board Chair Roy Valley for 20 years of service.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q1 Financials**: Non-GAAP EPS of $1.11, gross margin 59.1%, OpEx $230 million (29.6% of sales). Q2 guidance: $1.01-1.09 billion in sales, EPS $1.62-1.83. Full-year OpEx growth 17-19% YoY due to variable comp, engineering costs, and G&A expenses.
- **Supply Chain Challenges**: Material shortages, 3-4 month lead times, and shipment delays. Engineering investments to mitigate constraints. Q1 free cash flow negative ($1M), with $600 million+ buyback plan for 2021.
- **Balance Sheet**: $1.43 billion in cash, $51 million paid to convertible bondholders. Full-year EPS target range ($5.25-6.75) remains on track.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **SOC Test Growth**: Compute segment expected to double YoY, driven by Arm-based devices and high-complexity nodes. Automotive test revenue up 90% YoY, sustained by wafer front-end equipment (WFE) growth. Market share in SOC test ~50%, with potential for expansion in compute-intensive devices.
- **Supply Chain & Costs**: Raw material and semiconductor component costs rising, but gross margin maintained at 58-59%. Q2 shipments booked out, but visibility limited beyond Q3. No double-ordering observed.
- **IA Strategy**: UR and MiR leading IA growth, with UR+ and MiRGo ecosystems enabling rapid deployment. AutoGuide refocused on core accounts and ecosystem integration, with 2021 revenue < $10 million.
- **WFE-Correlation**: Tester demand lags WFE by ~12-15 months. 2021 WFE of $75 billion+ supports tester market growth, but wafer test (low-margin) share may dip IA group to 35-38%.
- **M&A & Strategy**: Actively evaluating opportunities in test and IA. No immediate M&A plans, but open to strategic fits. Regional supply chain trends may drive test capacity localization, benefiting Semi Test and IA.


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