What does Natera do and what are its main business segments?

What were the key takeaways from Natera’s earnings call?

What is Natera's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Natera year over year?

What factors drove the changes in Natera's revenue and profit?

Did Natera beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What is Natera's gross profit margin?

What guidance did Natera's management provide for the next earnings period?

**Key Takeaways**:
- **Revenue Growth**: Q4 2025 revenue of $666 million (+40% YoY), with 2026 guidance of $2.62–$2.7 billion.
- **Gross Margin Expansion**: Q4 gross margin 66.9%, 2026 target 63–65% driven by COGS savings and ASP gains.
- **Product Innovation**: Launch of Latitude (tissue-free MRD) and Fetal Focus (21-gene NIPT) fueling growth. Phase variant technology enables ultra-sensitive MRD detection.
- **Strategic Investments**: Japan launch in late 2026, R&D focus on early cancer detection, and clinical trials in new histologies.
- **Financial Strength**: $1 billion cash, 2025 cash flow of $107 million, and 2026 OpEx growth of 9.5% at midpoint.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q4 2025 Financial Highlights**: Revenue of $666 million, up 40% YoY, with MRD clinical units growing 56% to 225,000. Gross margin reached 66.9%, exceeding expectations, and cash flow for the year was $107 million.
- **2026 Guidance**: Revenue target of $2.62–$2.7 billion, gross margin 63–65%, and stable SG&A with targeted R&D investments. ASPs for Signatera are expected to increase by $30+ in 2026.
- **Product Momentum**: Launch of Latitude (tissue-free MRD) and Fetal Focus (21-gene NIPT) driving growth. Expansion of MRD into new histologies and geographies, including Japan.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q4 2025 Financials**: GAAP net income of $107 million, with non-GAAP metrics showing strong operational efficiency. COGS improvements and ASP gains contributed to gross margin expansion.
- **2026 Financial Outlook**: Excluding true-ups, gross margin guide of 64% reflects COGS savings and ASP growth. OpEx growth of 9.5% at midpoint, driven by R&D investments in early cancer detection and clinical trials.
- **Cash Position**: $1 billion in cash and securities, supporting growth initiatives.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Signatera ASPs**: Medicare coverage expansion and commercial payer adoption expected to drive ASP growth. 2026 guide includes $30+ ASP increase, with upside from broader Medicare coverage.
- **Market Share**: Women's health volumes growing mid-single digits, organ health up 50%+ YoY. Japan launch in late 2026 with potential for significant revenue in 2027.
- **Innovation**: Phase variant technology enabling detection below 1 part per 10 million, enhancing MRD sensitivity. Prospective trials in head and neck cancer demonstrate real-time treatment adaptation benefits.


Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Surges 35% YoY**: Q3 2025 revenue of $592 million, driven by 21,500 Signatera growth units and expanded Fetal Focus NIPT to 20 genes.
- **Gross Margin at 64.9%**: Sequential improvement of 1.5 percentage points, fueled by ASP gains and COGS efficiencies.
- **Clinical Trial Breakthrough**: Signatera shows 41% survival improvement in bladder cancer, published in NEJM.
- **Free Cash Flow Guidance**: >$100 million for 2025, with cash collections DSO at 49 days.
- **2026 Growth Path**: 10% OpEx growth, focused on R&D and clinical trials.
- **Reimbursement Expansion**: 7 new MolDX submissions in pipeline, targeting $250-$300 million in gross profit.
- **Early Detection Momentum**: PROCEED-CRC sensitivity 22.5%, FIND-CRC trial enrollment begins.
- **Market Share Expansion**: Signatera ASPs at $1,200, with biomarker state reimbursement driving ASP increases.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 2025 revenue reached $592 million, up 35% year-over-year, driven by strong performance across all product lines, including a record 21,500 Signatera growth units.
- **Gross Margin Expansion**: Gross margin improved to 64.9%, up 1.5 percentage points from Q2, with COGS efficiencies and ASP improvements contributing to the increase.
- **Product Launches**: Expanded Fetal Focus NIPT to 20 genes, enhancing carrier screening for 20 inherited conditions. Signatera ASPs reached $1,200, reflecting successful biomarker state reimbursement efforts.
- **Clinical Trial Momentum**: Presented Level 1A evidence at ESMO for Signatera in bladder cancer, with data showing 41% improvement in overall survival when used with immunotherapy.
- **Guidance Update**: Raised 2025 revenue guidance to $2.18-$2.26 billion, with gross margin expected to remain above 62%.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Financial Performance**: GAAP net income of $420 million, with free cash flow generation expected to exceed $100 million for the year.
- **OpEx Management**: SG&A flat to down sequentially, with R&D investments focused on clinical trials and product launches.
- **Cash Position**: Ended the quarter with over $1 billion in cash, reflecting strong cash collections and DSO improvement to 49 days.
- **2026 Outlook**: Anticipate OpEx growth of ~10%, with a focus on R&D and clinical trials to support long-term growth.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Reimbursement Progress**: Biomarker bills driving ASP increases, with 7 new MolDX submissions expected by year-end worth $250-$300 million in gross profit.
- **Early Detection Pipeline**: PROCEED-CRC study shows 22.5% sensitivity for advanced adenoma, with FIND-CRC trial enrollment underway.
- **Signatera Penetration**: Low single-digit market share in recurrence monitoring, with new patient starts at record levels.
- **Lung Cancer Strategy**: Exploring multi-cancer early detection, with focus on CRC first before expanding to other indications.

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Surge**: $547M (32% YoY), Signatera volume up 20,000 Q/Q, ASPs stable at $1,175. 
- **Gross Margin Expansion**: 63.4% (61%-64% guide), DSOs drop to 57 days. 
- **AI Breakthroughs**: Neoantigen prediction outperforms 25 models; $200M+ OpEx savings potential. 
- **Clinical Milestones**: Fetal Focus NIPT 91% sensitivity, Prospera kidney transplant data, and breast cancer DARE trial results. 
- **ECD Progress**: PROCEED-CRC readout late 2025, FIND trial enrolling for 2027 FDA. 
- **Guidance Reset**: Full-year rev $2.02B-$2.1B, flat OpEx, cash flow positive. 


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q2 2025 revenue: $547M (32% YoY growth, 34% ex true-ups). Signatera volume grew by 20,000 units Q/Q, a new record, driven by 3x higher new patient starts. 
- Gross margin: 63.4% (63.4% ex true-ups, up from 59% YoY). ASPs stable at $1,175 for Signatera despite COGS increase due to exome volume. 
- Guidance update: Full-year revenue raised to $2.02B-$2.1B (from $1.8B-$1.9B), gross margin 61%-64%. OpEx held flat at $200M+.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- GAAP net loss: $42M (non-GAAP EPS: $1.08 vs. $0.95 prior). DSOs improved to 57 days (down from 65 days). 
- Cash flow: $47M generated YTD. Non-cash charges ($30M) impacted EPS; adjusted loss would be $0.53 vs. reported $0.74. 
- Margin drivers: Revenue cycle efficiency, expanded coverage (e.g., $250M-$300M from non-Medicare tumor types), COGS reduction, and AI-driven cost savings. 

**【Clinical Updates & Product Launches】**
- **Fetal Focus NIPT**: Launched for inherited conditions, validated in 1,300-patient EXPAND trial with 91% sensitivity. 
- **Organ Health (Prospera)**: PEDAL study showed donor DNA levels predict kidney transplant outcomes, with 60x better long-term survival for low-level patients. 
- **Oncology Data**: 
  - Signatera in breast cancer: DARE trial showed 73% of recurrences detected pre-scan; TEODOR trial testing endocrine therapy vs. chemo. 
  - Gastrointestinal: PLAGAST (gastroesophageal) and HCC studies demonstrated Signatera's superior sensitivity to AFP. 

**【AI & Early Cancer Detection】**
- **AI Foundation Models**: Trained on 250K+ patients, 1M+ timepoints. Applications include digital twins for virtual trials, clinical trial matching, and neoantigen prediction (outperformed 25 models in TESLA benchmark). 
- **ECD Program**: PROCEED-CRC trial (3,500+ patients) expected to read out late 2025; FDA-enabling FIND trial on track for 2027 submission. 
- **Cost Savings**: AI to deliver $200M+ OpEx savings over time via scalable operations. 

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Signatera Growth**: 20,000 Q/Q units driven by ASCO buzz, new patient starts, and broad tumor type adoption. 3x new patient starts vs. prior record. 
- **Breast Cancer Trials**: $150M+ invested in 18+ peer-reviewed studies; IMvigor011 readout expected late 2025. 
- **ECD Timing**: PROCEED readout late 2025; FIND enrollment ongoing for 2027 FDA submission. 
- **Sales Force**: 150+ oncology reps added; 6-12 months to see productivity. 
- **Margins**: Gross margin expansion to 64%+ via ASPs, coverage gains, and AI. 


Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Supercharge**: Q1 2025 revenue ($502M) up 37% YoY, with Signatera volumes jumping 52% YoY and 16,500 sequential units.
- **Margin Magic**: Gross margin 63% (60.4% ex true-ups), +110bps QoQ, targeting 60–64% for 2025.
- **Oncology Dominance**: 45% of U.S. oncologists now use Signatera, with breast cancer volumes >25% of total and 93% sarcoma sensitivity vs. biopsy.
- **ASP Ambition**: Signatera ASPs to $2,000 via NCCN guidelines; Women's Health ASPs rising with pending microdeletion guidelines.
- **Japan Play**: Regulatory submission for colorectal cancer Q4 2025, targeting 2026 reimbursement in a $1.5B market.
- **Data Showdown**: Genome assay 90–100% sensitivity vs. competitors' unreported specificity; 89% sarcoma sensitivity vs. 70% biopsy.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q1 2025 revenue reached $502 million, a 37% year-over-year increase, driven by 855,000 units processed. Signatera clinical volumes grew 52% YoY, with 16,500 sequential units. Gross margin improved to 63%, excluding true-ups, up 110 basis points QoQ. Full-year revenue guidance raised to $1.94–$2.02 billion, implying 26% YoY growth ex true-ups.
- Strategic highlights include: ISHLT DEFINE study showing Prospera outperformed biopsy in heart transplant; I-SPY 2 trial demonstrating Signatera's ability to predict breast cancer recurrence; and ASCO 2025 featuring 25+ presentations, including six oral sessions in breast cancer.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q1 GAAP net income was $23 million, with cash flow breakeven achieved. Gross margin guide for 2025 is 60–64%, reflecting ASP growth and COGS efficiency. R&D and SG&A increased to support clinical trials and commercial expansion. Full-year ASPs expected to rise, particularly for Signatera with Medicare Advantage coverage improvements.
- Balance sheet remains strong with $997 million in cash, no debt, and no new share issuance planned.

**【Organ Health & Oncology Updates】**
- **Organ Health**: Prospera with DQS achieved 37% fewer false positives in heart transplant studies. Q1 volumes grew >50% YoY, driven by donor-derived cell-free DNA and germline tests.
- **Oncology**: Signatera ASPs reached $1,100, up 12% YoY. Sarcoma study (n=2,100) showed 89% sensitivity and 100% specificity. Genome assay launched, detecting ctDNA at 1 part per million, with clinical data showing 90–100% sensitivity across tumor types.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Signatera Growth**: Sequential units increased 16,500 QoQ, with 45% of U.S. oncologists ordering tests. Breast cancer volumes >25% of total, driven by I-SPY 2 and DARE trial data.
- **ASP Expansion**: Target Signatera ASPs >$2,000 via NCCN guidelines and biomarker state wins. Women's Health ASPs to rise with microdeletion and carrier screening guidelines.
- **Japan Market**: Regulatory submission for Signatera in colorectal cancer expected Q4 2025, with reimbursement potential late 2026.
- **Competitive Position**: 89% test specificity vs. competitors' unreported data; 93% sensitivity in leiomyosarcoma outperforms biopsy.


Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Surge**: Q4 2024 revenue up 53% YoY to $476M, driven by 26% volume growth and ASP improvements.
- **Gross Margin Leap**: 63% gross margin (vs. 51% YoY), with COGS savings and pricing optimization.
- **Signatera Momentum**: Volumes up 60% YoY, Q1 2025 tracking for record growth, Medicare coverage expansion for lung cancer surveillance.
- **ECD Breakthrough**: ECD trial shows 95% sensitivity, 91% specificity; FDA-enabling study to enroll 1,000+ patients, targeting 2026 data.
- **Cash Flow Strength**: $86M full-year cash flow, $46M in Q4, enabling $1B+ cash position with no debt.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q4 2024 revenue reached $476 million, up 53% YoY, exceeding pre-announcement by $4 million. Volumes grew 26% YoY, with Signature unit growth driving momentum.
- Gross margin improved to 63% (vs. 51% YoY), driven by COGS optimization and realized pricing. Full-year cash flow was $86 million, with Q4 generating $46 million.
- Key milestones: ASCO GI 80702 data showing Signatera's predictive ability, Medicare coverage expansion for lung cancer, and clinical validation of fetal RHD test.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- 2025 guidance: $1.87B-$1.95B revenue, 24% midpoint growth (excluding true-ups). Gross margin target >59%, with COGS improvements and ASP stability.
- Signatera ASPs rose to $1,100 in Q4, with potential for double-digit growth in 2025. Women's health ASPs stable, organ health volumes up 50% YoY.
- R&D and SG&A investments focus on clinical trials (e.g., ECD study), AI tools for claims optimization, and new product launches (genome-based MRD).

**【Business Updates】**
- **Oncology**: Signatera volumes up 60% YoY, Q1 2025 tracking for record growth. Medicare coverage for lung cancer surveillance, NCCN guideline inclusion for CRC and Merkel cell carcinoma.
- **Women's Health**: Strong organic growth, Invitae win contributing to volume ramp. Fetal RHD test published with 100% sensitivity, 99.3% specificity.
- **Organ Health**: PEDAL and DEFINE studies demonstrate Prospera's utility in kidney and heart transplant monitoring.
- **Early Cancer Detection**: ECD trial shows 95% sensitivity, 91% specificity. FDA-enabling study to enroll 1,000+ patients, targeting 2026 data readout.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Signatera ASP Growth**: Potential to double revenue at current volumes via expanded reimbursement (e.g., biomarker laws, Medicare Advantage). Q4 ASPs at $1,100, 2025 guide assumes modest growth.
- **Competitive Strategy**: Differentiated by deep, targeted MRD approach (16 variants vs. broad panels), clinical trial rigor (100+ peer-reviewed studies), and biobank scale (200,000+ cancer exomes).
- **ECD Timeline**: FDA-enabling study to complete in 18 months, with Medicare rate at $9.20 and potential ADLT pricing over $1,500.
- **Lung Cancer Coverage**: Medicare now covers surveillance for Stages I-III, expanding from immunotherapy monitoring to general recurrence detection.
- **True-Ups Moderation**: Historical collections efficiency reduces true-up variability, guiding to $5M/Q4 in 2025 vs. $46M in Q4 2024.

Actual												-0.45	-0.75	-0.72	-0.89	-0.74	-1.32	-1.63	-1.48	-1.45	-1.5	-1.25	-1.37	-1.23	-0.97	-0.95	-0.65	-0.56	-0.3	-0.26	-0.41	-0.5	-0.74	-0.64	0.36
Forecast												-0.5633	-0.5917	-0.6789	-0.622	-1.0156	-1.1235	-1.2926	-1.3093	-1.487	-1.4996	-1.4412	-1.4218	-1.1553	-1.0877	-0.9577	-0.7699	-0.7052	-0.6887	-0.5746	-0.3812	-0.6405	-0.6155	-0.3857	-0.5121
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	+20.11%	-26.75%	-6.05%	-43.09%	+27.14%	-17.49%	-26.10%	-13.04%	+2.49%	-0.03%	+13.27%	+3.64%	-6.47%	+10.82%	+0.80%	+15.57%	+20.59%	+56.44%	+54.75%	-7.56%	+21.94%	-20.23%	-65.93%	+170.30%

NTRA

NTRA fundamentals

NTRA Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

You can ask Aime

NTRA

NTRA fundamentals

NTRA Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

NTRA Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20254:30 PM on Feb 26, 2026

NTRA Earnings Call Summary for Q3/20254:30 PM on Nov 6, 2025

NTRA Earnings Call Summary for Q2/20254:30 PM on Aug 7, 2025

NTRA Earnings Call Summary for Q1/20254:30 PM on May 8, 2025

NTRA Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20244:30 PM on Feb 27, 2025

You can ask Aime