What is the market's earnings forecast for Grocery Outlet next quarter?

What does Grocery Outlet do and what are its main business segments?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Grocery Outlet year over year?

What is Grocery Outlet's gross profit margin?

What guidance did Grocery Outlet's management provide for the next earnings period?

What is Grocery Outlet's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

Did Grocery Outlet beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What were the key takeaways from Grocery Outlet’s earnings call?

- **Q4 Underperformance**: Comp sales decline due to value erosion, supply chain issues, and macro factors. 36 stores closed to improve profitability.
- **Strategic Response**: $20M promotional investment drives 200bps op mix increase; February comp up 100bps. 2026 store openings target 25%-30% IRR.
- **Financial Impact**: 2026 adj. EBITDA guidance $220M-$235M, with Q1 adj. EPS $0.01-$0.00. Promotional investments weigh on near-term margins.
- **Positive Signs**: East region 51 stores comp +3.3% Q4; op mix momentum building for 2026 recovery.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q4 2025 results deemed unacceptable due to comp sales decline and value perception erosion. Key issues included reduced opportunistic product mix, supply chain inefficiencies, and macroeconomic pressures.
- **Strategic Actions**: 
  - Closed 36 underperforming stores (24 in East), freeing $12M annualized EBITDA and reallocating resources to high-priority markets.
  - Invested $20M in promotions to bridge op mix gap, driving 200bps increase in op sales mix and 100bps comp improvement in February.
  - Expanded store refresh program to 150 stores, targeting operator support and customer experience enhancement.
  - Initiated strategic review of UGO to focus on core business.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q4 2025: Net sales $1.22B (+10.7% YoY), adj. EBITDA $68M (+19% YoY). Gross margin 29.7% (up 20bps YoY) despite markdowns.
- **2026 Outlook**: 
  - Comp store sales: -2% to flat (Q1: -2.5% to -1.5%).
  - Adj. EBITDA: $220M-$235M (vs. $203M in 2025). Adj. EPS: $0.45-$0.55.
  - Promotional investments to weigh on Q1 gross margin (~29.6%-29.8%).
  - Store openings: 30-33 net new, with 2026/27 cohorts targeting 25%-30% IRR.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Sales Trends**: February comp improved 100bps vs. January, driven by promotions. SNAP/Ebt impact in Q4 now resolved.
- **Store Closures**: 36 closures to reduce top-line growth by 2%, with $57M cash charges and $52M non-cash write-offs.
- **Operator Support**: Enhanced tools (produce/meat order guides) and reporting to reduce friction and improve execution.
- **Promotional Strategy**: Temporary bridge to op mix recovery, not permanent; targeting 3-6 months to restore op pipeline.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 net sales up 5.4% to $1.17 billion, driven by 11 new stores and 1.2% comp growth.
- **Store Refresh Success**: Pilot stores achieved mid-single-digit lifts; 150+ stores to be refreshed in 2026.
- **Adjusted Guidance**: 2025 same-store sales 0.6-0.9%, adjusted EBITDA $258-262 million.
- **SNAP Risk**: 9% of sales tied to SNAP; potential disruption not factored into guidance.
- **Strategic Focus**: Scaling store refresh, improving IO tools, and localizing assortments for 2026 growth.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q3 2025 net sales reached $1.17 billion, up 5.4% YoY, with comparable store sales growth of 1.2%. New store openings contributed 11 net stores.
- Launched store refresh pilot program, achieving mid-single-digit comp lifts in 2 pilot stores. Plans to expand to 20 stores by year-end and 150+ in 2026.
- Adjusted EBITDA of $67 million (top of guidance) and adjusted EPS of $0.21 (exceeded expectations due to tax benefits).
- Q3 comps underperformed due to promotional timing and marketing mix changes, but weekly comps rebounded post-course correction.
- 2026 strategy includes rolling out refreshed stores in new locations and improving IO tools for better in-stock performance.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q3 gross profit $355.1 million (30.4% of net sales), SG&A $331 million (28.3% of net sales), driven by new store growth and software amortization.
- Adjusted 2025 guidance: same-store sales 0.6-0.9%, net sales $4.7-4.72 billion, adjusted EBITDA $258-262 million, and adjusted EPS $0.78-0.80.
- 2026 expectations include $9 million EBITDA contribution from 53rd week in 2025 and $10-13 million headwind from cash incentives.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Store Refresh Rollout**: 150+ stores in 2026, focusing on clustering and minimal disruption (5-week execution). Pilot stores saw 5%+ lift in meat/produce categories.
- **SNAP Impact**: 9% of sales tied to SNAP; no guidance impact yet, but monitoring potential disruptions.
- **Localization**: Testing region-specific assortments (e.g., Southern California Hispanic-focused) with early positive results.
- **Marketing Strategy**: Course correction in Q4 with sharper focus on wine and opportunistic buys; social media testing ongoing.
- **IO Satisfaction**: Positive feedback on system improvements (order guide functionality) and refresh program ROI (3.5-year payback period).

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q2 Outperformance**: Revenue ($1.18B +4.5% YoY), EBITDA ($68M), and EPS ($0.23) all beat guidance, with 1.1% comp store growth.
- **Gross Margin Expansion**: 30.6% (up 20bps QoQ) from inventory efficiency and merchandising.
- **Strategic Wins**: New stores delivering >20% cash-on-cash returns in year 4; 50%+ infill store openings for 2025.
- **Customer Engagement**: 15%-20% price advantage vs. peers, with fresh category tools driving double-digit sales lifts.
- **Financial Strength**: $132.6M first-half cash flow, debt at 1.7x EBITDA, and EPS guidance raised to $0.75-$0.80.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q2 Results**: Revenue of $1.18 billion (+4.5% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $68 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.23, all above guidance. Comp store sales grew 1.1% in line with expectations.
- **Gross Margin**: 30.6% (up 20bps QoQ) driven by improved inventory management and merchandising.
- **Strategic Initiatives**: 
  1. **New Store Performance**: 2025 cohort stores outperforming plan, with cash-on-cash returns >20% in year 4 for '25-'26 cohorts.
  2. **Talent Acquisition**: Hired Matt Delly as Chief Merchandising Officer; added Board members with retail expertise.
  3. **Execution Improvements**: Real-time order guide rolled out, in-stock rates for top 200 SKUs lifted 200bps in focus stores.
  4. **Scaling**: 33-35 net new stores for 2025, focusing on infill markets (50%+ of openings) to drive returns.
- **Customer Insights**: Value perception strong, with 15%-20% savings vs. peers; in-stock improvements and fresh category tools driving sales lift.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Net Sales**: $1.18 billion (+4.5% YoY), driven by new stores and comp growth.
- **Gross Profit**: $360.7 million (+3.3% YoY), margin 30.6% (down 30bps YoY, up 20bps QoQ).
- **SG&A**: $336.8 million (+4.2% YoY), 28.5% of net sales (down 10bps YoY).
- **Restructuring**: $11.2 million in Q2 charges, total 2025 guidance updated to $63 million.
- **Cash Flow**: $132.6 million in first-half operating cash flow, ending Q2 with $55.2 million cash.
- **Debt**: $474 million (1.7x net leverage), with 2025 interest expense reduced to $27 million.
- **Guidance Update**: Adjusted EPS raised to $0.75-$0.80 (from $0.70-$0.75) due to lower interest rates.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Comp Growth Drivers**: In-stock improvements (+150-200bps on top SKUs), new arrival guide rollout, and fresh category tools (+double-digit meat/produce sales lift in test stores).
- **IO Health**: Voluntary turnover <10%, with focus on talent pipeline and clustered store openings for better support.
- **System Progress**: Real-time order guide feedback positive; new arrival guide to enhance IO planning.
- **Future Leverage**: SG&A savings ($17M share-based comp reduction) and cost control to drive operating efficiency.
- **Opportunistic Mix**: Gross margin stability expected as op mix improves and shrink reduces.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q1 Growth Beats Expectations**: $1.13B net sales (+8.5% YoY), 30bps comp growth, 30.4% gross margin.
- **Strategic Priorities**: New store optimization, talent acquisition, systems integration, scale execution.
- **FY25 Outlook Adjusted**: 1-2% comp sales, 30-30.5% gross margin, $210-220M EBITDA.
- **Key Risks**: Macro uncertainty, basket size softness, restructuring costs ($59-61M).
- **Positive Signals**: Real-time order guide improving fill rates, private label expansion, DC consolidation.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 net sales reached $1.13B (+8.5% YoY), driven by 10 new stores and 30bps comp store sales growth.
- Exceeded gross margin outlook through improved inventory management and shrink reduction.
- Key initiatives: 
  1. New store performance optimization (50% infill strategy, lower CapEx pilots)
  2. Talent acquisition (new CIO, merchandising leadership search)
  3. Systems integration (real-time order guide rollout)
  4. Scale execution (DC consolidation, private label expansion)
- FY25 comp store sales guidance updated to 1-2% YoY (prev. 2-3%), reflecting macro uncertainty.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- Q1 GAAP net loss: $23.3M (-$0.24 EPS) vs. $1M (-$0.01 EPS) last year.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $51.9M (+31.7% YoY), margin 4.6% vs. 3.8%.
- Gross margin: 30.4% (+110bps YoY) driven by shrink improvement and assortments.
- SG&A: $333.1M (+9.1% YoY) due to UGO store costs.
- Restructuring charges: $33.9M (leases, severance)
- FY25 guidance: 
  - Comp sales: 1-2% YoY
  - Gross margin: 30-30.5%
  - Adjusted EBITDA: $210-220M
  - Restructuring: $59-61M

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
1. **New Store Strategy**: 30-35 net openings in 2026, focusing on clustered openings and ROIC optimization.
2. **Basket Size Challenges**: Q1 basket down 2% due to Easter shift and macro uncertainty; initiatives to improve in-stock rates and quality (e.g., produce standards).
3. **Cost Control**: Indirect procurement savings targeting supply chain, IT, and professional fees; $65M capex for 2025.
4. **System Progress**: Real-time order guide rolled out to 75% stores, improving fill rates to 99%.
5. **Liberation Day Impact**: Soft April trends but no evidence of trading down; focus on value messaging and opportunistic products.


Grocery Outlet Holding (GO)-6 May 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Q4 Growth Drivers**: 2.9% comp sales growth from customer count recovery, despite system challenges. 
- **Strategic Shift**: 2025 store openings cut by 40% to focus on execution and returns. 
- **Margin Pressures**: 2025 gross margin 30-30.5% target, with H1 headwinds from eggs and shrinkage. 
- **Leadership Transition**: New CEO and CFO bring decades of grocery expertise to drive operational turnaround. 
- **Long-Term Potential**: 4,000+ store white space remains, with disciplined capital allocation to drive ROIC. 


**【Eric Lindberg Opening Remarks】**
- **Q4 Performance**: Comparable store sales grew 2.9% driven by a 3% increase in customer count, reflecting restored value proposition and opportunistic buying. 
- **Strategic Adjustments**: Reduced new store openings in 2025 to 33-35 (from 55-60 previously), focusing on existing and adjacent markets to improve execution and returns. 
- **Systems Progress**: SAP implementation challenges persist, but critical tools like real-time order guides expected to phase in Q2. 
- **Restructuring**: $36-45M in 2025 charges include lease exits and supply chain cost rationalization. 

**【Jason Potter CEO Introduction】**
- **Leadership Vision**: Emphasizes disciplined execution, operator collaboration, and scaling the unique IO model. 
- **Turnaround Expertise**: Cited success at Fresh Market through improved guest experience, operational efficiency, and value-driven assortment. 

**【Chris Miller CFO Financial Update】
- **Q4 Results**: Net sales $1.1B (+10.9%), Adjusted EBITDA $57.2M (+12.5%). Gross margin 29.5% (-70bps YoY) due to egg supply issues and shrinkage. 
- **2025 Outlook**: 
  - Comp store sales 2-3% growth (Q1 flat due to Easter shift). 
  - Gross margin 30-30.5% (Q1: 29.5-30%), targeting long-term recovery via tool improvements. 
  - Adjusted EBITDA $260-270M, Adjusted EPS $0.70-0.75. 
  - CapEx $210M for stores, DCs, and systems. 

**【Key Q&A Takeaways】**
- **Gross Margin Recovery**: Eggs and shrinkage to weigh on margins through H1; tools like order guides expected to improve inventory management. 
- **New Store Strategy**: 33-35 openings focused on high ROI markets; pipeline remains strong but execution prioritized. 
- **Operator Relations**: No IO attrition linked to system issues; focus on supporting operators with better tools and value messaging. 
- **Competitive Position**: Value metrics (40% basket savings vs. conventional) hold, but basket size remains a near-term challenge. 
- **Private Label Progress**: 180 SKUs launched, strong customer response; 150+ new SKUs planned for 2025. 


Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Grocery Outlet Holding (GO)-5 Nov 24-2024 Q3 Earnings call transcript

Grocery Outlet Holding (GO)-6 Aug 24-2024 Q2 Earnings call transcript

Grocery Outlet Holding (GO)-7 May 24-2024 Q1 Earnings call transcript

Grocery Outlet Holding (GO)-27 Feb 24-2023 Q4 Earnings call transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 net sales up 9.3% to $1 billion, with 6.4% comparable store sales growth and 8 new stores opened.
- **Gross Margin Expansion**: 31.4% gross margin (+80 bps), despite 50 bps system-related inefficiency.
- **System Transition Impact**: Q4 expected to face 300 bps comp headwind, with recovery largely complete by year-end.
- **New Store Momentum**: 27 net new stores in 2023, targeting 10%+ growth in 2024.
- **ESG Progress**: Published first ESG report, highlighting $10 billion in customer savings and food insecurity initiatives.
- **Q4 Guidance**: Adjusted EBITDA $248-$252M (+16%), adjusted EPS $1.04-$1.06.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 net sales increased 9.3% to $1 billion, driven by 6.4% comparable store sales growth and 8 new store openings. Transaction count rose 8.6%, with traffic growth from new and returning customers.
- **Gross Margin Expansion**: Gross margin improved 80 basis points to 31.4%, despite system transition challenges, reflecting strong deal flow and cost management.
- **System Transition Impact**: Upgrades to inventory and financial systems caused Q3 disruptions, including inventory visibility issues and 150 basis points of comp headwind. Management expects these challenges to largely resolve by year-end.
- **New Store Growth**: On track to open 27 net new stores in 2023, including first stores in Ohio and Las Vegas. Long-term goal of 4,000+ stores remains intact.
- **ESG Initiatives**: Published first annual ESG report, highlighting $10 billion in customer savings over 5 years, food insecurity support, and sustainable sourcing practices.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Financial Highlights**: Q3 GAAP net income rose 55.1% to $27.1 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 20% to $68.1 million. Adjusted EPS increased 24% to $0.31.
- **Gross Margin Dynamics**: Q3 gross margin of 31.4% included 50 basis points of inefficiency from system upgrades. Full-year gross margin expected to improve 70 basis points to 31.2%.
- **Operating Expenses**: SG&A increased 8.7% to $278.1 million, driven by commission support for operators and new store growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 60 basis points to 6.8%.
- **Q4 Guidance**: 
  - Net sales: $3.95 billion (flat YoY)
  - Adjusted EBITDA: $248-$252 million (16% growth)
  - Adjusted EPS: $1.04-$1.06
  - Comps: 2% (300 basis points below prior guidance)
- **Liquidity**: $155.7 million cash on hand, with $296.3 million gross debt.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **System Recovery**: Management expects Q4 to be most impacted by system transition, with 300 basis points of comp headwind. Inventory levels and variety improving, with normalized ordering practices restored.
- **Commission Support**: Provided incremental commission payments to operators during transition, with Q4 impact included in guidance. No lingering costs expected in 2024.
- **New Store Pipeline**: 2024 store growth targeting 10% annual rate, with focus on organic expansion, real estate lists, and small acquisitions. First Ohio store set to open before year-end.
- **App Launch Delay**: E-commerce app rollout delayed to Q1 2024 due to system integration challenges. Soft launch in Washington, Oregon, and East Coast shows strong customer adoption.
- **Closeout Market Strength**: Supplier innovation and forecasting challenges continue to drive surplus inventory opportunities, supporting gross margin growth.


Actual				0.36	0.42	0.5	0.24	0.23	0.23	0.24	0.2	0.22	0.29	0.27	0.22	0.27	0.32	0.31	0.18	0.09	0.25	0.28	0.15	0.13	0.23	0.21	0.19
Forecast				0.2972	0.2273	0.2335	0.2303	0.2235	0.2379	0.2225	0.1995	0.1957	0.2404	0.2573	0.2309	0.2324	0.2599	0.2709	0.1616	0.1847	0.2034	0.2715	0.1667	0.0707	0.1741	0.1956	0.2083
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	+21.13%	+84.78%	+114.13%	+4.21%	+2.91%	-3.32%	+7.87%	+0.25%	+12.42%	+20.63%	+4.94%	-4.72%	+16.18%	+23.12%	+14.43%	+11.39%	-51.27%	+22.91%	+3.13%	-10.02%	+83.88%	+32.11%	+7.36%	-8.79%

GO

GO fundamentals

GO Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

You can ask Aime

GO

GO fundamentals

GO Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

GO Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20254:30 PM on Mar 4, 2026

GO Earnings Call Summary for Q3/20254:30 PM on Nov 4, 2025

GO Earnings Call Summary for Q2/20254:30 PM on Aug 5, 2025

GO Earnings Call Summary for Q1/20254:30 PM on May 6, 2025

GO Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20244:30 PM on Feb 25, 2025

You can ask Aime