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Did Frontdoor beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

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What factors drove the changes in Frontdoor's revenue and profit?

- **Revenue Growth**: 14% FY2025 to $2.1B, guided 3-5% in 2026 with non-warranty up 66% to $220M-$240M.
- **Margin Expansion**: Gross margin 55%, adj. EBITDA margin 26%, long-term target raised to mid-20s%.
- **Share Buybacks**: $280M in 2025, $650M authorization on track to complete by early 2027.
- **Strategic Wins**: 2-10 synergies >$20M, HVAC upgrades +48%, renewal rates 75% (up 150bps).
- **Growth Drivers**: First-year channels +5%, DTC +3%, HVAC upgrades $165M in 2026.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- **2025 Highlights**: Revenue grew 14% to $2.1B, gross margin expanded 150bps to 55%, and $280M shares repurchased. 
- **2026 Outlook**: 
  1. Ending member count to grow (first year channels +5%), 
  2. Long-term adjusted EBITDA margin target raised to mid-20s%, 
  3. Share repurchase program to complete $650M authorization by early 2027.
- **Strategic Priorities**: 
  1. Stabilize & grow home warranty members (DTC +3%, renewal rates +150bps to 75%), 
  2. Scale non-warranty (HVAC upgrades +48% to $128M), 
  3. Integrate 2-10 (synergies >$20M vs $10M target, 2-10 Builder platform migration in 2026).

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q4 2025 Results**: 
  - Revenue $433M (+13%), gross margin 49%, adj. EBITDA $59M (+21%).
  - Full year: Revenue $2.1B (+14%), adj. EBITDA $553M (+25%), free cash flow $390M.
- **2026 Guidance**: 
  - Revenue $2.155B-$2.195B (3-5% growth), adj. EBITDA $565M-$580M (26% margin). 
  - Non-warranty revenue to $220M-$240M, driven by HVAC upgrades ($165M) and Moen program.
  - Gross margin 54-55%, SG&A flat at $660M-$680M.
- **Capital Allocation**: 
  - $87M Q4 buybacks, $280M annualized repurchase rate, 1.4x net leverage ratio.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Pricing Strategy**: 
  - DTC 50% off promotions maintained, real estate channel testing localized discounts. 
  - Renewal rates resilient (DTC renewals +150bps despite price increases).
- **Real Estate Market**: 
  - 2026 attach rate growth via agent engagement, 2025 inventory improvement (60% homes sold below list price).
- **Non-Warranty Growth**: 
  - HVAC upgrade program gross margin ~20%, 55,000 installations vs 2.1M members. 
  - Appliance upgrade pilot launching Q4 2026, targeting higher utilization rates.
- **Tariffs & Claims Cost**: 
  - Low single-digit cost inflation managed via preferred contractors (84% on auto-pay), domestic supply chain.
  - 2026 claims cost inflation expected to remain low single-digit.


Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Financial Performance**: Q3 revenue up 14% to $618M, adjusted EBITDA +18% to $195M, with 60% cash conversion.
- **Margin Expansion**: Gross margin +60bps to 57%, driven by pricing, operational efficiency, and claims cost management.
- **DTC Growth**: 8% organic member growth, 5 straight quarters of expansion via targeted marketing and Warrantina campaign.
- **Nonwarranty Breakthrough**: HVAC sales hit $125M YoY, with 2026 expansion into appliances, roofs, and water heaters.
- **CFO Transition**: Jason Bailey to lead finance, leveraging 25+ years industry expertise for disciplined capital allocation.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 revenue increased 14% YoY to $618 million, driven by 12% volume growth and 3% price realization. Nonwarranty revenue surged 73% YoY, fueled by HVAC sales and new programs.
- **Gross Margin Expansion**: Gross profit margin improved 60 basis points to 57%, benefiting from dynamic pricing, operational efficiencies, and lower claims costs.
- **DTC Channel Momentum**: Organic DTC member count grew 8% YoY, with 5 straight quarters of growth. Promotional pricing and targeted marketing drove new member acquisition.
- **Real Estate Recovery**: Ending member count increased sequentially for the first time since 2020, supported by a buyer's market and promotional strategies.
- **Nonwarranty Success**: HVAC sales reached $125 million YoY, with plans to expand into appliances, roofs, and water heaters in 2026.
- **Retention Strength**: 79.4% retention rate, enhanced by AHS app adoption (20% of members) and video chat with experts (35,000 sessions Q3).

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Net Income & EBITDA**: GAAP net income rose 5% to $106 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased 18% to $195 million. Free cash flow grew 64% YoY to $296 million.
- **Cash Conversion**: 60% cash conversion ratio, up from 46% prior year, driven by disciplined cost management and 2-10 synergies.
- **Share Repurchases**: $215 million in buybacks through October, reflecting confidence in long-term growth.
- **2025 Outlook**: Full-year revenue now $2.075-$2.085 billion (13% growth), with Q4 revenue $415-$425 million and adjusted EBITDA $50-$55 million.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Cost Inflation**: 4% contractor cost inflation managed via dynamic pricing and trade service fees. No material tariff impact on domestically-produced equipment.
- **Promotional Strategy**: $100-off promotions in real estate channel drove sequential member growth, with 84% preferred contractor utilization.
- **Nonwarranty Expansion**: Appliance replacement pilot to go nationwide in 2026, targeting $2 billion opportunity across trades.
- **DTC Trade-off**: Q4 DTC revenue down mid-single digits due to promotional pricing, but retention rates offset short-term revenue loss.
- **CFO Transition**: Jessica Ross departing after 3 years, succeeded by Jason Bailey with 25+ years industry experience. Transition supported by 30-day advisory role.


Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: 14% YoY to $617 million, driven by 2-10 acquisition and price hikes.
- **DTC Success**: 9% organic home warranty growth, 78.3% retention rate, AI-driven marketing efficiency.
- **Non-Warranty Expansion**: HVAC program targets $120 million, 75% financing uptake, doubled contractor engagement.
- **Cash Flow Strength**: $237 million free cash flow, $250 million buyback target, 1.5x net leverage ratio.
- **2-10 Synergies**: $15 million annual savings, below 7x EBITDA multiple, cross-selling opportunities.
- **AI Integration**: Enhancing marketing, sales, and operations with predictive analytics and automation.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth and Margins**: Q2 revenue rose 14% YoY to $617 million, driven by 2-10 acquisition and price increases. Gross margin improved 130 bps to 58%, benefiting from lower service requests and cost control.
- **DTC Channel Strength**: Direct-to-consumer home warranties grew 9% organically, supported by refined marketing, digital ad effectiveness, and discounting strategies. Retention rate at 78.3%, near all-time high.
- **AI Integration**: Leveraging AI for predictive marketing, sales coaching, and operational efficiency, though details remain high-level due to competitive sensitivity.
- **2-10 Synergies**: Integration ahead of schedule, with $15 million in annualized cost savings vs. original $10 million target. Adjusted EBITDA multiple now below 7x.
- **Non-Warranty Expansion**: HVAC program on track for $120 million in 2025, with 75% growth in financing usage and doubled contractor participation.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Strong Cash Flow**: Free cash flow of $237 million (44% YoY increase), enabling $150 million in share buybacks YTD and raised target to $250 million.
- **Revenue Breakdown**: 12% DTC growth, 21% Real Estate boost from 2-10, and 63% surge in Other revenue (HVAC/Moen programs).
- **Gross Profit**: $356 million (+16% YoY), driven by 58% margin and $5 million benefit from favorable weather.
- **Full Year Outlook**: Revenue up $25 million to $2.075 billion, EBITDA margin raised 100 bps to 55-56%, reflecting cost control and macro tailwinds.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **2-10 Synergies**: Cost savings accelerated to $15 million vs. $10 million target, with cross-selling opportunities in structural warranties.
- **HVAC Program**: Penetration under 2%, with interest-free financing driving 75% increase in contractor quotes.
- **Real Estate Momentum**: 2-10 team outperforming expectations, integrating AHS and structural warranty sales effectively.
- **Gross Margin Challenges**: Second half expects low single-digit cost inflation, offset by revenue conversion improvements.


Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: $426M (+13% YoY), driven by 2-10 acquisition and 2% organic growth
- **Margin Expansion**: Gross margin 55% (+380bps YoY), EBITDA $100M (+41% YoY)
- **DTC Momentum**: 15% YoY member growth despite 9% revenue decline from promotions
- **Non-Warranty Expansion**: HVAC program revenue guidance raised to $105M
- **Share Buybacks**: $200M+ targeted for 2025, reflecting undervaluation
- **Retention Strength**: 79.9% retention rate, 85% preferred contractor usage
- **Liquidity**: $322M unrestricted cash, 1.9x net leverage ratio

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 revenue reached $426 million (+13% YoY), driven by 11% contribution from 2-10 acquisition and 2% organic growth.
- Adjusted EBITDA surged 41% to $100 million, with member count up 7% to 2.1 million.
- Key strategic priorities: 
  1. Grow DTC member base (Q1 DTC units +4% organically)
  2. Expand non-warranty revenue (HVAC program revenue guidance raised to $105M)
  3. Integrate 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty on track
- DTC success: 15% YoY growth to 310,000 members, despite 9% revenue decline due to promotional pricing.
- Retention rate improved to 79.9%, driven by enhanced onboarding, preferred contractor usage (85%), and digital innovations (AHS app downloads +200,000).

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- GAAP EPS: $0.49 (+13% YoY); Non-GAAP EPS: $0.64 (+46% YoY)
- Gross margin expanded 380bps to 55%, benefiting from: 
  - 4% average price increase
  - 70% reduction in claims cost development
  - 85% preferred contractor utilization
- Free cash flow reached $117 million (60% YoY growth), with $322 million unrestricted cash.
- Share buyback target raised to $200 million for 2025, reflecting confidence in intrinsic value.
- Full year outlook raised: 
  - Revenue: $2.03-2.05 billion (+$20M from prior guide)
  - Adjusted EBITDA: $500-520 million (+$50M from prior guide)
  - Gross margin: 54-55% (vs. prior 52-53%)

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
1. Tariff Impact: 
  - Q1 saw no inflation, but 2-10 acquisition added $5M unfavorable weather impact
  - 2025 guidance includes mid-single-digit inflation (tariffs + normal cost increases)
2. HVAC Transition: 
  - New refrigerant compliance driving system replacements
  - Contractor relations team managing supply chain disruption
3. Real Estate Channel: 
  - Q1 organic member growth -6% vs. -10% prior quarter
  - 2025 real estate revenue expected to grow 15% in Q2, driven by 2-10 integration
4. Retention Strategy: 
  - Expanded call program reduced cancellations
  - Video chat with expert feature resolved 17% of issues remotely
  - 84% members on auto-renewal

**【Valuation Commentary】**
- Current EV/EBITDA multiple of 8x vs. 2021 peak of 18x
- 12 consecutive quarters of beating consensus
- $570 million liquidity and 1.9x net leverage ratio
- Share buybacks: $100M+ annually since 2022, with $200M+ targeted for 2025

Actual							0.21	0.66	0.59	0.08	0.1	0.76	0.91	0.1	0.04	0.53	0.56	0.13	0.29	0.87	0.94	0.2	0.44	1.27	1.38	0.27	0.64	1.63	1.58	0.23
Forecast							0.1688	0.6651	0.5913	0.0467	0.0704	0.6221	0.6797	0.2014	0.08	0.55	0.465	-0.1071	0.08	0.5598	0.5358	0.0321	0.1971	0.9912	1.03	0.112	0.3776	1.4371	1.4933	0.1321
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	+24.41%	-0.77%	-0.22%	+71.31%	+42.05%	+22.17%	+33.88%	-50.35%	-50.00%	-3.64%	+20.43%	+221.38%	+262.50%	+55.41%	+75.44%	+523.05%	+123.24%	+28.13%	+33.98%	+141.07%	+69.49%	+13.42%	+5.81%	+74.11%

FTDR

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FTDR Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

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FTDR

FTDR fundamentals

FTDR Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

FTDR Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20258:30 AM on Feb 26, 2026

FTDR Earnings Call Summary for Q3/20258:30 AM on Nov 5, 2025

FTDR Earnings Call Summary for Q2/20258:30 AM on Aug 5, 2025

FTDR Earnings Call Summary for Q1/20258:30 AM on May 1, 2025

FTDR Earnings Call Summary for Q4/2024 Mar 27, 2026

You can ask Aime