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What is the market's earnings forecast for Cognex next quarter?

What were the key takeaways from Cognex's earnings call?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Cognex year over year?

Did Cognex beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

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What is Cognex's gross profit margin?

- **Revenue Growth**: 8% YoY (constant currency) in 2025, driven by logistics and factory automation.
- **AI Strategy**: New products (e.g., DataMan 290) target $3.2B of the $7B served market, gaining market share.
- **Margin Expansion**: 21.5% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2025, targeting 25% run rate by end-2026.
- **Customer Acquisition**: 9,000 new accounts in 2025 (3x 2024 rate), with 5-year doubling goal.
- **Cost Savings**: $35M-$40M annualized savings to offset mix headwinds and drive 2026 margin expansion.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **2025 Performance**: Revenue grew 8% YoY (constant currency), with adjusted EPS up 38%. Logistics and factory automation drove Q4 growth.
- **Strategic Focus**: 
  - **AI Leadership**: Launched AI-enabled products (e.g., DataMan 290, In-Sight 8900) targeting $3.2B of the $7B served market.
  - **Customer Experience**: New cognex.com website, AI chatbots, and 24/7 support improved engagement and conversions.
  - **Customer Growth**: Acquired 9,000 new accounts in 2025 (3x 2024 rate), aiming to double customer base in 5 years.
- **Portfolio Optimization**: Exited $22M low-margin businesses (e.g., Japan trading unit, mobile SDK) to focus on core AI vision.
- **Operating Model**: $35M-$40M annualized cost savings by 2026 through automation, global value locations, and streamlined sales org.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **2025 Results**: 
  - Revenue: $994M (+9% YoY), adjusted EBITDA margin 21.5% (vs. 17.1% in 2024).
  - Free Cash Flow: $237M (highest since 2021), 138% trailing 12-month conversion.
  - Share Buybacks: $151M returned to shareholders, with $500M authorization renewal.
- **2026 Outlook**: 
  - Q1 Guidance: Revenue $235M-$255M (13% midpoint YoY), EBITDA margin 19%-22%.
  - Target 25% EBITDA margin run rate by end-2026, >100% free cash flow conversion.
  - Cost Efficiency: $35M-$40M savings offsetting mix headwinds, pricing stability.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Cost Reductions**: $35M-$40M savings to flow into 2026, with 25% EBITDA margin target achievable by year-end.
- **Portfolio Impact**: Japan trading unit exit (~$10M/Q4 revenue) to be completed Q2, reducing packaging/logistics mix but maintaining growth targets.
- **End Market Trends**: 
  - **Logistics**: Mid-single-digit 2026 growth after 2025 double-digit expansion.
  - **Consumer Electronics**: High-single to double-digit growth driven by AI device form factors.
  - **Automotive**: Flat to low-single-digit 2026 growth, with Europe lagging North America recovery.
- **Capital Allocation**: Free cash flow prioritized for buybacks, with M&A on hold due to macro uncertainty.

Cognex Corporation(CGNX)-20260212-2025 Q4 Earnings call transcript

- **AI-Driven Growth**: Logistics SLX launch and consumer electronics recovery fuel 13% core revenue growth, with adjusted EBITDA margin 22.1%.
- **China Expansion**: 9% YoY growth in Greater China, supported by localized sales and stable pricing.
- **Profitability Focus**: Operating expenses up 1% YoY, free cash flow conversion 133%, and Q4 EPS growth 7.5%.
- **Market Recovery Signals**: Automotive nears bottom, semiconductor AI investment, and packaging underpenetration opportunities.
- **Strategic Innovation**: OneVision platform nearing full-scale launch in H1 2026 for AI ecosystem expansion.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q3 Financial Success**: Delivered double-digit revenue growth and highest adjusted EBITDA margin since Q2 2023, driven by AI leadership and sales force transformation.
- **AI Innovation**: Launched SLX product line in logistics, targeting object classification and side-by-side detection, with a leading freight provider achieving cost savings.
- **Market Performance**: Logistics grew 13% YoY (excluding one-time partnership), consumer electronics showed recovery, automotive nears bottom, and packaging expanded in underpenetrated geographies.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 revenue $277M (+18% YoY), with Americas up 27% and Europe 24% (excluding procurement shifts). Adjusted EBITDA margin 22.1%, up 450bps YoY.
- **Cost Management**: Operating expenses grew 1% YoY, driven by cost discipline and reorganization charges. Free cash flow $36M, trailing 12-month conversion 133%.
- **Q4 Guidance**: Revenue $230-245M (+3% midpoint), adjusted EPS $0.19-0.24 (+7.5% YoY). 2026 outlook cautious, aligning with macroeconomic PMI signals.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Consumer Electronics**: Growth from supply chain diversification, device form factor evolution, and AI-driven inspection solutions.
- **China Momentum**: 9% YoY growth in Greater China, driven by localized sales and stable pricing post-competition stabilization.
- **Logistics AI Penetration**: SLX addresses unmet needs in package detection, with potential for gross margin improvement and reduced deployment costs.
- **Semiconductor Recovery**: Modest growth, benefiting from AI-driven equipment investment and regional fabs expansion.
- **Automotive Recovery**: Near bottom with U.S. strength, Europe lagging, and long-term opportunities in quality and automation.
- **M&A Strategy**: High bar for strategic fit, focusing on complementary technologies like OneVision platform for broader product ecosystem.

Cognex (CGNX)-30 Oct 25-2025 Q3 Earnings call transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: Q2 revenue up 4% YoY to $249M, driven by logistics (+double digits), packaging (+mid-single digits), and consumer electronics.
- **Margin Expansion**: Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.7% (highest in 2 years), with 80bps YoY improvement.
- **Strategic Initiative Success**: OneVision early adopters show simplified AI deployment, expanding product compatibility.
- **Q3 Guidance**: Revenue $245M-$265M (9% YoY midpoint), EPS $0.24-$0.29 (+35% YoY), reflecting strong free cash flow generation.
- **Tariff Mitigation**: 50bps gross margin dilution, no material impact on profitability.
- **Key Risk**: Automotive sector decline expected to continue, offset by growth in other markets.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Strategic Objectives**: Targeting to become the #1 AI provider for industrial machine vision, enhancing customer experience, and doubling customer base through sales force expansion.
- **Q2 Financial Highlights**: Revenue of $249M (+4% YoY), adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.7% (up 80bps YoY), driven by growth in logistics, consumer electronics, and packaging.
- **OneVision Platform**: Early adopters like Paldo demonstrate success in simplifying AI deployment, with plans to expand across products.
- **End Market Trends**: Logistics growth (6+ consecutive quarters), packaging momentum (+mid-single digits YoY), consumer electronics strength, and cautious outlook for automotive and semi.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q2 Results**: Adjusted EBITDA of $51.5M (+9% YoY), adjusted EPS of $0.25 (+12% YoY), free cash flow of $40M (130% of trailing 12-month net income).
- **Third Quarter Guidance**: Revenue $245M-$265M (9% YoY midpoint), adjusted EBITDA margin 19.5%-22.5%, adjusted EPS $0.24-$0.29 (+35% YoY midpoint).
- **Tariff Impact**: 50bps dilution to gross margin, no material impact on EBITDA or EPS.
- **One-Time Revenue**: $8M-$14M benefit from new medical lab automation partnership, excluded from guidance.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Cost Management**: 2% YoY reduction in operating expenses, disciplined approach to driving margin expansion.
- **Logistics Growth**: Driven by e-commerce investments and AI adoption, with multiyear visibility on projects.
- **Consumer Electronics**: Geographic shifts (China to other Asia) and new product launches supporting growth.
- **Tariff Strategy**: Supply chain diversification mitigates costs, with Cognex positioned to benefit from supply chain diversification trends.
- **M&A Outlook**: Focused on adjacencies like sensing components, with high bar for deals.
- **Auto Sector**: Cautious outlook due to macro headwinds, but vision remains critical for quality and efficiency.


Cognex Corporation (CGNX) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **CEO Transition**: Rob Willett steps down as CEO, succeeded by Matt Moschner, with Rob remaining on the Board.
- **Strategic Focus**: AI-driven growth, customer experience, and market expansion to become #1 in industrial machine vision.
- **Q1 Financial Strength**: +5% organic revenue growth, 490bps EBITDA margin expansion, $102M share buybacks.
- **Market Momentum**: Logistics at 5th straight quarter of double-digit growth; packaging and semiconductor offset automotive weakness.
- **Tariff Resilience**: No EPS impact, 50bps gross margin dilution, with flexible supply chain mitigating risks.
- **Long-Term Growth**: US reshoring and automation trends, plus packaging market expansion, drive multi-year opportunities.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- **CEO Transition**: Rob Willett announced Matt Moschner as CEO effective June 27, following a multi-year succession plan. Rob will remain on the Board and advise Matt.
- **Matt's Qualifications**: Matt has led engineering, logistics growth, and the Moritex acquisition since 2017, proving his readiness for CEO role.
- **Rob's Legacy**: Rob grew revenue from $175M in 2009 to $900M in 2024, emphasizing innovation and culture.

**【CEO Commentary】**
- **Strategic Objectives**: 
  1. Be #1 AI provider for industrial machine vision.
  2. Deliver best customer experience.
  3. Expand served customer base.
- **Product Innovation**: Launched In-Sight 8900 AI-powered smart camera for OEMs, targeting logistics, semiconductor, and packaging markets.
- **Market Performance**: Q1 revenue +5% YoY (constant currency), driven by logistics and semiconductor, offset by automotive weakness.
- **End-Market Outlook**: 
  - **Logistics**: 5th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, expects full-year strength.
  - **Automotive**: Q1 down YoY, 2025 decline expected to moderate vs. 2024's 14% drop.
  - **Packaging**: Stable Q1, poised for growth with new products and salesforce expansion.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q1 Financials**: 
  - Revenue: $216M (+2% YoY, +5% constant currency)
  - Adjusted EBITDA margin: 16.8% (+490bps YoY)
  - Free cash flow: $38M (vs. $10M YoY)
  - Share buybacks: $102M (largest since Q1 2022)
- **Gross Margin**: 67.6%, down 120bps YoY due to mix (higher logistics, lower consumer electronics).
- **OpEx Management**: Operating expenses down 8% YoY, driven by cost discipline and FX.
- **Tariff Impact**: Substantial mitigation of direct costs, 50bps dilution to gross margin expected.
- **Q2 Guidance**: Revenue $235-255M (midpoint +2% YoY), EBITDA margin 18.5-21.5%.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **OpEx Leverage**: Q1 OpEx decline (8% YoY) driven by FX, headcount, and cost control. Long-term focus on profitable growth.
- **Consumer Electronics**: Q1 down due to project timing, expects modest 2025 growth. Tariff-related shifts could impact 2025 outlook.
- **Tariff Mitigation**: No EPS impact, 50bps gross margin dilution. Flexible supply chain in Southeast Asia supports mitigation.
- **Packaging Market**: 3rd largest segment, stable Q1 with healthcare recovery. Salesforce expansion targeting new customers.
- **Reshoring Trends**: US manufacturing investments (semiconductors, automotive) seen as long-term growth opportunity.
- **China Dynamics**: 9% YoY decline in Greater China due to consumer electronics timing. Pricing pressures offset by productivity gains.


Cognex Corporation (CGNX) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **AI Innovation Drives Growth**: Transformer-based VisionPro 4.0 reduces training data by 90%, enabling 3,000+ new customers via salesforce expansion.
- **Mixed Market Momentum**: Logistics (+20% YoY) and Semi offset Automotive (-14% YoY) and CE declines.
- **Financial Resilience**: $0.20 EPS growth, $134M free cash flow, and 12-15% Q1 EBITDA margin guidance.
- **Risks Remain**: Auto weakness likely to persist, China pricing pressure, and uncertain reshoring timelines.

**【CEO Strategic Overview】**
- **AI-Driven Product Expansion**: Launched VisionPro Deep Learning 4.0 with transformer models, enabling training on as few as 10 images (vs. hundreds previously). Introduced DataMan 380 barcode readers for logistics and modular vision tunnels for high-speed sorting.
- **Sales Transformation Success**: 3,000+ new customers acquired in 2024 by entry-level salesforce, with Q4 bookings at highest level. Second cohort entering field in 2025.
- **Market Performance**: 
  - **Logistics**: +20% YoY, driven by e-commerce and modular vision tunnel adoption.
  - **Automotive**: -14% YoY due to EV battery project delays; expects stabilization but no recovery in 2025.
  - **Semiconductor**: Growth off low 2023 base, driven by memory chip investment.
  - **Consumer Electronics**: -5% YoY, but project timing improvements in H2.
- **Moritex Integration**: Acquired business accretive to EPS, contributing $0.01 in 2024.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- **Q4 2024 Results**: 
  - Revenue: $230M (17% YoY, 12% ex-Moritex)
  - Adjusted Gross Margin: 69.4% (down 130bps vs. 2023 Q4)
  - Adjusted EPS: $0.20 (18% YoY)
  - Free Cash Flow: $49M (vs. $7M in 2023 Q4)
- **2024 Full Year**: 
  - Revenue: $915M (+9% YoY, +1% ex-Moritex)
  - Adjusted EPS: $0.74 (flat YoY)
  - Free Cash Flow: $134M (105% of net income)
- **Q1 2025 Outlook**: 
  - Revenue: $200-220M (flat vs. 2024 Q1)
  - Adjusted Gross Margin: High 60s%
  - EBITDA Margin: 12-15% (150bps YoY improvement)

**【Key Q&A Takeaways】**
- **Auto Market Risk**: CEO warns 2025 automotive spending unlikely to recover, with EV battery investment delays persisting.
- **China Pricing Pressure**: Continued competitive intensity, but maintaining share with strong tech differentiation.
- **M&A Strategy**: Prioritize high-quality, AI/ML-focused acquisitions; Moritex-like deals seen as rare but impactful.
- **Tariff Impact**: No direct COGS impact, but reshoring trends could create long-term upside.


Actual											0.12	-0.01	0.49	0.39	0.39	0.43	0.44	0.3	0.38	0.34	0.19	0.32	0.15	0.33	0.11	0.07	0.07	0.21	0.17	0.16	0.16	0.25	0.33	0.27
Forecast											0.0754	0.097	0.3247	0.2878	0.3484	0.417	0.4558	0.2168	0.3797	0.4042	0.1333	0.3038	0.0765	0.265	0.1482	0.0785	0.0766	0.1941	0.1825	0.1468	0.1283	0.2391	0.2931	0.22
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	+59.15%	-110.31%	+50.91%	+35.51%	+11.94%	+3.12%	-3.47%	+38.38%	+0.08%	-15.88%	+42.54%	+5.33%	+96.08%	+24.53%	-25.78%	-10.83%	-8.62%	+8.19%	-6.85%	+8.99%	+24.71%	+4.56%	+12.59%	+22.73%

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